WNBA betting is back on Thursday with two games on the WNBA odds board, which also means a fresh slate of WNBA player props to pick from.
We get a second look at the mighty Las Vegas Aces as they invade La-La Land to take on the L.A. Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury are still searching for their first victory hosting fellow 0-2 team, the Minnesota Lynx.
I dig into those matchups for my best WNBA player prop picks for May 25.
WNBA player prop bets for May 25
- Plum Over 19.5 points
- Ogwumike Over 5.5 rebounds
- Collier Over 5.5 rebounds
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today's best WNBA player props bets
Aces High
How good are the Las Vegas Aces? We’ll get a better answer to that question Thursday when the reigning WNBA champs visit the Los Angeles Sparks.
Las Vegas squashed the Storm in the season opener last Saturday, blowing away the closing 13.5-point spread with a 105-64 road victory. Kelsey Plum scored the majority of those buckets with 23 points on 8-for-16 shooting in 32 minutes of action.
Plum, who averaged just over 20 points per game last season, has a point prop around that same mark tonight, with oddsmakers’ expectations set between 19.5 and 20.5 points Over/Under. Plum’s player projections are much more positive, with a ceiling of more than 25 points from the 5-foot-8 guard.
The game script calls for plenty of points from Las Vegas tonight, with this spread climbing from the opener of Aces -13 and the total ticking up from 171 to 172.5 as of Thursday morning. Not only is Vegas setting the tone early on as the returning champ but is also playing with a chip on its shoulder.
The league suspended head coach Becky Hammon for the first two games of the season due to team misconduct around former player and current Sparks forward Dearica Hamby. Hammon will serve the final game of that ban tonight.
Plum, who has been very vocal against that suspension as VP of the player’s union, dominated Los Angeles in their meetings last season, scoring 29 points in each of the two final matchups and finished the season averaging 23 points over four contests vs. the Sparks.
In the 22 games in which the Aces drew a closing total of 170 points or more last season, Plum averaged 21.5 points (vs. 20.2 overall on the season) and scored less than 20 points in only eight of those outings with higher totals.
Kelsey Plum Prop: Over 19.5 points (-120 at FanDuel)
Chasing boards with Chiney
The tall total for Aces-Sparks, as well as the pace of play for Las Vegas, means plenty of shots Thursday night. And in turn, plenty of rebounds.
Los Angeles will need a big night on the boards from forward Chiney Ogwumike as she battles a stacked Vegas frontcourt.
Ogwumike has a rebounding prop of 5.5 boards (Over -120), which is pretty low considering new L.A. head coach Curt Miller runs a smaller starting lineup with Chiney and her sister Nneka Ogwumike as the lone forwards.
Miller’s teams are known for hitting the glass hard as his Sun squads finished inside the Top 4 in rebound rate in his seven years with the Sun, including ranking out No. 1 or No. 2 in each of the last five seasons.
Chiney hauled in seven rebounds in the opening win over Phoenix last week and player projections for tonight’s tilt with the Aces are calling for a much higher rebound total. Those models are forecasting as many as 8.9 boards which are more than enough to clear the modest Over 5.5 priced as high as -120 at some books.
FYI: 7+ rebounds from Chiney is listed at +165 on the milestone markets at bet365 if you want to roll the dice for a higher return.
Chiney Ogwumike Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-106 at FanDuel)
Collier answers the call
The Minnesota Lynx are in Phoenix with both teams trying to crack the win column after twin 0-2 starts.
Leading the charge for Minnesota is forward Napheesa Collier, who is averaging 18.5 points, five rebounds, and 3.5 assists through two games this season.
While Collier’s projections are calling for smaller outputs in points and assists, there’s a big discrepancy in her rebound forecast vs. her player prop for tonight.
Bookies are hanging Collier’s rebound total at 5.5 (Over -110) while the WNBA player projections call for closer to nine rebounds from the 6-foot-1 UConn product.
Collier has grabbed five rebounds in each of the Lynx’s outings so far in 2023. She was limited to just 25 minutes due to foul trouble against Atlanta on Tuesday and fouled out with just over two minutes remaining, allowing the Dream to go on a 6-0 run to close out and steal the 83-77 win in Minnesota.
Collier played in only four games last season after being off following the birth of her son, averaging just three rebounds an outing in limited minutes. However, she averaged 6.6 rebounds the season prior and nine boards per game in 2020.
There could be plenty of rebounds up for grabs in Phoenix tonight. The Mercury — who own the No. 8 rebound rate through two games — are shooting just 40.9% from the field to start the schedule. The Lynx are fifth in rebound rate at 51.2% and shooting just better than 39% from the field.
Napheesa Collier Prop: Over 5.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
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