Screw hyperbole. The upcoming 2024 WNBA season will be the biggest in league history.
With the popularity of women’s hoops soaring and an influx of generational talent entering the league, WNBA betting will be big business this summer. Why wait until the May 14 season openers to start betting on WNBA odds?
Sportsbooks currently have a longer list of WNBA futures than any previous year, including season win totals for all 12 teams.
These Over/Under markets include the Las Vegas Aces tagged with a league-high 33.5 wins, as well as Caitlin Clark improving the Indiana Fever from 13 wins in 2023 to a projected 21-plus victories in 2024.
As the season draws near, I’ve been fine-tuning my WNBA power ratings and using those models to forecast the best WNBA season win total bets for the 2024 campaign.
2024 WNBA regular season win total picks
- Minnesota Lynx Over 16.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)
- Seattle Storm Under 24.5 wins (+100 at bet365)
- Los Angeles Sparks Over 9.5 wins (-139 at BetMGM)
- Washington Mystics Under 12.5 wins (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 5-1.
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Minnesota Lynx Over 16.5 wins (-130 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot to like about the Minnesota Lynx in 2024, starting with star forward Napheesa Collier. She’s coming off a career year (21.5 points, 8.5 rebounds per game) in which Collier ranked Top 5 in PIE (Player Impact Estimate) and led Minnesota to 19 wins and a playoff berth.
Collier has an excellent roster around her, with veteran guard Kayla McBride back and second-year standouts Diamond Miller and Dorka Juhasz ready to make the jump. The Lynx signed some excellent free agents in Courtney Williams and Alana Smith, and traded for Natisha Hiedeman, providing backcourt depth. Minnesota also drafted a matchup nightmare in Utah star Alissa Pili, who dropped 37 points on South Carolina last season.
My power ratings are high on Minnesota, projecting it to contend for No. 2 in the Western Conference and come away with 20 or more wins in 2024. That’s well above what oddsmakers are expecting, setting the Lynx as low as 16.5 wins O/U.
Seattle Storm Under 24.5 wins (+100 at bet365)
Perhaps the only way to defeat “super teams” like Las Vegas and New York is to form your own collection of superstars.
That’s how the Seattle Storm are playing it in 2024, signing Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith this offseason. Those veterans line up alongside Seattle’s remaining stars Jewel Loyd and Ezi Magbegor… and not much else beyond 35-year-old Sami Whitcomb.
The Storm have a starting five that contends with any team, but the bench is about as shallow as a puddle. My ratings currently have Seattle headed for between 22 and 23 victories in 2024.
Poor depth, cohesion problems, and a tougher Western Conference calendar all add value to my bet on the Under 24.5 wins for the Storm.
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Los Angeles Sparks Over 9.5 wins (-139 at BetMGM)
According to the 2024 WNBA odds, no team is more volatile than the Los Angeles Sparks.
Los Angeles’ win total ranges from 9.5 O/U (Over -160) to 11.5 (+100) across the industry. The varying projections are warranted considering L.A. lost top scorers Nneka Ogwumike and Jordin Canada this offseason.
In their place, the Sparks drafted the foundation of their franchise, with Cameron Brink at No. 2 and Rickea Jackson at No. 4 — two talents that could’ve been No. 1 overall in any other draft class. Betting the Over on Los Angeles’ wins is a bet on a rapid maturation for these two rookies.
The future looks bright in L.A., but it’s the past that has me bullish on the Sparks in 2024. Last year, this roster was riddled with injuries and illness, leaving L.A. to roll out 18 different starting lineups and rely on reserves for heavy minutes.
That means plenty of depth from the returning players like Layshia Clarendon, Azura Stevens, Lexie Brown, and Derica Hamby, along with offseason additions Kia Nurse and Aari McDonald.
And then there’s Curt Miller, as the two-time Coach of the Year winner did his best work in his first season in L.A. Those 18 different starting lineups tied a WNBA record, and yet, Miller somehow squeezed 17 wins out of the Sparks (topped win total of 16.5 O/U).
Year 2 under Miller has me calling for between 14 and 15 wins from Los Angeles in 2024, which gives us a lot of headroom when measured against the short end of this win total. The West is tough, but clubs like Phoenix (new coach, revamped roster), Seattle (revamped roster), and Dallas (missing Satou Sabally to start) could fall short of expectations.
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Washington Mystics Under 12.5 wins (-110 at DraftKings)
It’s the end of an era in D.C., as the Washington Mystics take the court without staples like Elena Delle Donne and Natasha Cloud for the first time since 2017. With EDD stepping away (but not officially retiring), Washington loses a Top-5 player in PIE and looks to a young frontcourt to pick up the slack.
Shakira Austin is great but missed half the season with a hip injury that’s still lingering, and No. 6 pick Aaliyah Edwards has work ahead of her on the offensive end. The Mystics’ backcourt is steady with Brittney Sykes and Ariel Atkins, but the roster is missing that gamebreaker that other clubs can count on.
Flat out, Washington will not be able to keep pace on the scoreboard with some of the teams in the East. Second-year head coach Eric Thibault has good defenders, but it’s getting harder to be a defense-first team with the league’s scoring average spiking the past four seasons.
I have the Mystics ranked dead last in my 2024 power ratings with their ceiling at 12 wins — right on their available totals of 11.5 to 12.5 O/U. This is admittedly a rebuilding year in D.C., and it wouldn’t shock me if the Mystics failed to post double-digit wins.
