Seattle Storm vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: No Jones, No Problem for Connecticut

Two teams looking to break losing streaks will face off tonight as the Seattle Storm visit the Connecticut Sun in a Thursday night WNBA matchup.

The Storm (4-12) have lost three straight, and remain near the bottom of the WNBA standings. Connecticut (12-5) has lost two in a row, dropping games to the best teams in the league: the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. 

Connecticut remains one of the top teams in the league but hasn’t been as imposing for opponents since the loss of Brionna Jones.

We’ll figure out how much Seattle can take advantage of that injury in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Storm vs. Sun on July 6 below.

Storm vs Sun best odds

Storm vs Sun picks and predictions

With a deep roster and plenty of scoring options, the Connecticut Sun will survive without Jones, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles tendon, but without the center in the lineup, it will be harder than ever for Connecticut to compete with the Liberty and Aces when it comes time for the postseason.

Against weaker teams, however, the Jones injury hasn’t seemed to hurt the Sun nearly as much. Our sample size may be small, but since Jones went down, Connecticut has posted a 21-point win over the Lynx and a 24-point victory over the Sky.

Those opponents are both potential playoff teams and are clearly stronger than the floundering Storm. Seattle has lost three in a row and five of its last six, with only a win over the lowly Mercury preventing a longer losing streak. 

The start of that run came on June 20 against the Sun in Seattle. That’s the game where Jones went down with her Achilles injury, which she suffered with just a minute left in the game. That night, Seattle stuck around and won the fourth quarter, but couldn’t make up the difference as Connecticut won 85-79.

That was a surprisingly strong performance for Seattle, but there are a few reasons to think they won’t repeat it tonight. First, the Storm will be on the road this time, at the start of a rough East Coast trip that will test the team’s stamina and focus.

Seattle isn’t designed to take full advantage of Jones’ absence, either. While center Ezi Magbegor is a capable second option, she’s not the type of player who will take over a game, and the Sun still have plenty of solid post defenders to throw at her. 

Instead, it’s Jewell Loyd who runs the offense for the Storm. Loyd leads the league in scoring with 25.8 points per game and virtually operates as a one-woman attack for Seattle. Loyd went off in the first meeting between these teams, scoring 33 points to keep the Storm in the game for as long as possible.

I can’t imagine the Sun will let that happen again at home. With Connecticut blowing out the bottom half of the WNBA on a regular basis and Seattle struggling to find wins against anyone but Phoenix, this is clearly Connecticut’s game to lose.

The Sun should be able to get a solid hold on this game and maintain it to walk away with a double-digit win tonight. I’m taking Connecticut minus the points despite a 9.5-point spread.

My best bet: Sun -9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Storm vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun opened tonight’s game as a 9.5-point favorite, and many books have now increased that number to a flat 10 or even 10.5. However, you can still find Connecticut -9.5 at some sites and I’m recommending placing your bets at that number if possible. 

Both teams have been mediocre against the spread this season. The Storm have gone 8-7-1 ATS so far in 2023, while the Sun are a dead even 8-8-1 for bettors against the number.

Seattle might be facing a hangover as it travels out east to face Connecticut, and if there’s any team that can’t afford to be off its game in the slightest, it’s the Storm. The Sun were able to handle Seattle on the road and should have an even easier time on Thursday night at home. I’m taking the Sun and laying the points.

Tonight’s total started at 164.5 points. The consensus Over/Under has jumped up to 165.5 as of noon on Thursday, with some books even offering a flat 166. Most sites aren’t favoring either side, though I was able to find the Over at a slightly better -106 at 165.5.

These have both been Over teams this season. Seattle has gone above the number in nine of its 16 games, while the Over is 11-6 when the Sun play this year.

The loss of Jones hasn’t slowed down Connecticut’s scoring attack or pace of play. In the four full games we’re seen since her injury, the Sun have only gone under 165.5 points once, in an 89-68 win over Minnesota back on June 22. Seattle has also played above this number in three of its last four games.

While these two teams combined for only 164 points out in Seattle last month, that’s close enough to the total that it doesn’t make me want to ignore the recent trends on both sides. I’m leaning towards the Over tonight.

Storm vs Sun betting trend to know

The Sun are 12-5 in their last 17 games against teams with losing records. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Sun.

Storm vs Sun game info

Storm vs Sun key injuries

Storm: No key injuries to report.
Sun: Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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