WNBA bettors get a potential championship preview when the league-leading Las Vegas Aces host the defending title holders, the Chicago Sky, inside Michelob Ultra Arena on Tuesday night.
Neither team has been a great bet in recent outings, with Chicago coming to Sin City on a three-game ATS skid while the Aces have managed to cover just once in their last five games, facing some beefy point spreads in the process. Books have another pile of chalk in front of Las Vegas tonight.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sky at Aces on June 21.
Sky vs Aces odds
Las Vegas opened as an 8.5-point home favorite but has since slimmed to -7.5 with play on Chicago and the probable return of Candace Parker. The total hit the board at 174.5 and climbed to 176.5 before coming back down to 175.5 points.
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sky vs Aces predictions
Predictions made on 6/21/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Sky vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: Candace Parker F (Questionable).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sky are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Aces.
Sky vs Aces picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Chicago opened this current three-game road trip with a hiccup at Indiana on Sunday. The Sky lost by two points as 8-point road favorites but didn’t have star big Candace Parker in action, with the WNBA veteran missing the previous two games due to a knee issue. Parker is on the injury report as questionable for this clash with the Aces but is expected to play.
Before the blip versus the Fever, the Sky had won three straight games, including notable road wins over a red-hot New York side and against their biggest rival in the East, Connecticut. Chicago lost 83-76 at home to Las Vegas back on May 28 but had gone 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in the seven games since, before Sunday’s dud.
The Sky have been playing a high level of competition in that span, including splitting two games with Washington, beating Atlanta twice, edging the streaking Liberty, and taking a big conference win over the Sun.
That stretch of sked contrasts what has honestly been a softer slate for the Aces, who have picked up seven of their WNBA-best 13 wins against the likes of Phoenix, Minnesota, and Los Angeles — three clubs with a combined 14-32 record so far in 2022.
Las Vegas has taken resume wins over Connecticut, Seattle, and this very same Chicago team, but those top-tier challenges have been few and far between. And, after starting the season on an 8-2 ATS tear in the opening 10 games, oddsmakers have piled on the points and sucked all the value out of Vegas, which is 1-4 ATS in its last five outings.
Chicago has the firepower to match the Aces' output, owning an offensive rating of 105.2 (second highest) since last facing Las Vegas at the end of May. With Parker back in the mix, the Sky can get solid point production from seven different sources and leans into a reliable bench that doesn’t allow for a dip when the starters need a rest.
Las Vegas doesn’t have that luxury. The Aces collect fewer than 10 points per game from their reserves and instead ride the starting five for extended minutes. Vegas has five players putting up at least 13 points per game, including superstars A'ja Wilson and Kelsey Plum, who scored a combined 41 of the Aces’ 83 points the last time these teams tangled.
On top of those puffed-up point spreads, Vegas is finding itself in tighter games as the season moves forward. The Aces owned an average margin of +13.1 points in the first eight games but that buffer has slimmed to +5.7 over the last seven contests. We like these WNBA heavyweights to put on a show in Sin City and for the Sky to keep it closer than oddsmakers’ expectations tonight.
Prediction: Sky +7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Tonight’s Over/Under opened as low as 174.5 and spiked to 176 before some buyback on the Under dropped it to 175.5.
Vegas can pile up the points in a hurry and runs the fastest tempo in the WNBA, with a pace rating of 100.44. Chicago isn’t as quick but doesn’t shy away from tempo, ranked fourth fastest in that pace metric.
The last time these teams battled in the Windy City, they pumped out a pace rating of 103.8 but amassed only 159 points, which fell well below the closing number of 172.5.
Neither team shot well, especially from beyond the arc, with the Sky and Aces combining for an ice-cold 9-for-51 from deep. Despite that shite shooting night, we’re still dealing with two of the better threats from 3-point range in the league.
Las Vegas leads the league with a 35.7% clip from distance on the year, burying an average of 9.3 triples per homestand. Chicago, on the other hand, has improved on its long-range shooting, hitting 38.5% from outside and canning 7.5 3-pointers per contest over its last eight games.
The capacity for defense is there with these clubs, but recent play sees the Aces owning a defensive rating of 100.9 in June while the Sky hoist a hefty 102.3 rating in that same advanced metric this month.
Prediction: Over 174.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
Going back to the previous meeting between these two teams, the pace of the first half and point production seemed to be on par with the oddsmakers' projections in that May 28 contest.
The Sky and Aces combined for 89 first-half points — with Vegas doing the heavy lifting with 51 — despite both teams struggling from outside. Then the ice age rolled into Wintrust Arena and Over bettors got only 70 combined points in the second half.
The Aces come out flying in their contests, averaging 46.8 first-half points with a pace of 100.72, while the Sky put up 41.3 points per opening half at a pace rating of 97.28, before pumping the breaks a bit in the final 20 minutes (2H pace rating of 94.48).
With these teams likely crossing paths come the postseason, the second half of Tuesday’s tilt could take on a postseason feel if the game is close. And because both teams could clamp down on defense, we’ll isolate the opening two quarters and take the Over 87.5 points.
Pick: First-half Over 87.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
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