Sky vs Aces Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

The Las Vegas Aces will look to continue their red-hot play in the scorching Nevada desert as they host the Chicago Sky on Tuesday night.

Vegas is riding a four-game winning streak and has won 10 of its last 11 games overall, which has led to a lopsided Sky vs. Aces prediction in tonight’s WNBA odds.

I’ll look at why the explosive Las Vegas offense should be subdued tonight in my free WNBA picks for July 16.

Sky vs Aces predictions

My best bet
Under 173.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
The Las Vegas Aces are arguably the most dangerous offensive team in the WNBA this season, something they’ve carried over from their last two title runs.

Las Vegas is averaging a league-high 88.9 points per game, ranks first in true shooting percentage (57.1%), and second in offensive rating (107.4). The Aces also play at the fastest pace in the league, further fueling their offensive numbers.

When the Aces have had trouble this year, it’s been on the defensive end, as they are also allowing 82.6 ppg on the season. However, in Las Vegas’ recent 10-1 run, that number has come down to just 79.3 ppg, and would be even lower if not for an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Sparks earlier this month in which they allowed 98 points.

It seems that sportsbooks aren’t adjusting to Las Vegas’ improved defensive play just yet. The Aces have hit the Under in three straight games now, and in a less dramatic trend, they’ve also done so in six of their last 10 games.

WNBA MVP odds mortal lock A’ja Wilson & Co. are still lighting up the scoreboard, scoring at least 84 points in each of their last 10 outings, but they’ve held opponents under 80 points in seven of those contests. 

Tonight, the Aces face off against the Chicago Sky, who don’t play such a high-scoring brand of basketball. In fact, Chicago both scores (78.7 ppg) and allows (81.0 ppg) fewer points than Las Vegas by a noticeably large margin. Importantly, the Sky and the Aces are both relatively efficient on defense, ranking sixth and fifth in defensive rating in the league this year.

Chicago’s main problem is that it doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with Las Vegas. Angel Reese (13.5 ppg) has added a nice third option to go along with Chennedy Carter (16.4 ppg) and Marina Mabrey (14.0 ppg), but that hasn’t been enough to compete in shootouts.

Tonight’s total is very high considering both how the Aces have been playing defense of late, and the season-long trends for the Sky.

Yes, the first meeting between these two teams went Over the total, but the broader trends and advanced numbers suggest these teams will struggle to get above 170 points. I’m taking the Under tonight in Las Vegas.

Sky vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 173.5

Aces -13.5

A’ja Wilson to score 25+ points

+355 at BetMGM

While I like the Under tonight because of the unusually high total, I’m still expecting Las Vegas to score at its normal rate against an average Sky defense.

That’s why my same-game parlay also includes a bet on the Aces to cover the 13.5-point spread. It’s a lot of points for sure, but Las Vegas has been solid as a double-digit favorite this season, covering in five of 12 opportunities — including in its first game against Chicago.

For Las Vegas to beat that number, it’ll need a solid game out of Wilson. I’m taking her to hit an alternate point total and score at least 25 points tonight, something she’s done in eight of her last 11 games overall.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Sky vs Aces odds

Sky vs Aces live odds

Get the latest Sky vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.

Sky vs Aces opening odds

• Spread: Chicago +14.5 (-110) | Las Vegas -14.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Chicago +800 | Las Vegas -1,400
• Over/Under: Over 169.5 (-110) | Under 169.5 (-110)

Sky vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Sky have gone 9-14 against the spread on the season, while the Aces have a similar 10-13 ATS record.
• Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games. Las Vegas is 9-1 straight up in its last 10 contests, going 6-4 ATS during that span.
• The Over has an identical 12-11 edge when both the Sky and the Aces play this season.
• Las Vegas is averaging a league-high total of 171.5 points this year, while Chicago is playing to an average total of 159.7. 

Sky vs Aces trend

The Sky have played Under tonight’s total in each of their last seven games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Aces.

Sky vs Aces game info

Sky vs Aces latest injuries

Sky: Elizabeth Williams C (Out). 
Aces: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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