There are few things in sports more exciting than an elimination game where the loser goes home, and the victor advances to the next round. That is where we are now, as tonight's matchup between the New York Liberty and Chicago Sky pits a decisive Game 3 at Barclays Center.
When this playoff matchup was announced, no one expected it to last more than two games. Yet, here we are with the heavy favorite, Chicago, having to travel to Brooklyn to play in front of what should be an electric crowd. Find out why the road team will prevail in our Sky vs. Liberty WNBA betting picks and predictions.
Sky vs Liberty Game 3 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread odds have danced between -6.5 and -7.0 since opening up on Sunday. The total has dropped from its opening at 167.5 to between 165.5 and 164.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Sky vs Liberty Game 3 predictions
Predictions made on 8/23/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Liberty info
• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Tuesday, August 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Sky vs Liberty series odds
Liberty: +240
Sky: -285
Sky vs Liberty betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: Kahleah Copper G (Questionable), Li Yueru F (Out).
Liberty: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 13-3 in the Sky's last 16 vs. a team with a losing record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sky.
Sky vs Liberty Game 3 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Like so many games in the WNBA playoffs thus far, it has been unpredictable on many levels. That started with the Liberty handing Chicago a shocking defeat in the series opener. The Game 2 100-62 shellacking was almost as stunning, which ended up being the largest margin of victory in WNBA playoff history. Now, we are left wondering which was more legit, the Liberty's narrow win or the Sky's utter dominance.
While we may not see a complete blowout like in Game 2, there's no doubt Chicago is the superior team, and it will prove this again. Game 1 was a wake-up call that ultimately led to a masterful Game 2 in which the Sky never trailed, led by 24 points at halftime, and scored over 100 points for the fourth time in playoff history.
The Kahleah Copper and Sabrina Ionescu matchup is one Chicago likes and will utilize again. New York has had an average defense all season, ranking sixth in defensive rating, and the Sky did a brilliant job of penetrating that weak point all game.
Copper — the reigning Finals MVP — showcased why she's a big game performer, refusing to lose with a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. She made it a mission to slow down Ionescu and found great success holding her to seven points.
The Liberty will continue to live and die by the three. On Saturday, they only made three out of 20 3-point attempts. That's a testament to Chicago's perimeter defense, which has been stellar all season. It knows New York will keep shooting them and the Sky have the athletes to neutralize it again.
During the season series (including the playoffs), Chicago defeated the Liberty by 30-plus points twice. New York made this a legitimate series after winning Game 1, but this is over, and the Sky will win big yet again.
Prediction: Sky -7 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Chicago is coming off a 100-point explosion — the second-highest scoring performance of these playoffs. I always find it hard to defend the Under when dealing with a team that scores 86.3 points per game in the regular season — ranking second overall.
The Liberty have been a roller coaster on offense all year, and you have no idea what to expect from them on a game-to-game basis. That couldn't be clearer than them scoring 98 points in Game 1 and only 62 in Game 2.
New York only mustering 62 points might scare some bettors off from the Over, but it shouldn't. Ionescu remains one of the best all-around players in the league, and it's not likely she will have a dud performance in front of her home crowd. The offense, in large part, didn't get going in Game 2 due to her never fully figuring out how to get going against a Sky defense that had been struggling of late.
The Sky score big, and they are near flawless in the Under/Over column against teams with losing records. For the season, the Over is 13-3 in Chicago's last 16 games against a team with a straight-up losing record. I am confident taking the Over today.
Prediction: Over 164.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
What more can we say about the production of Copper? Dating back to last year's Finals — where she secured MVP honors — she has been invaluable in her play. She led the way for the Sky, defensively causing havoc.
Copper took on the challenging task of defending Ionescu, a noticeable contrast to the first game when Vandersloot defended Ionescu and Copper matched up with Betnijah Laney.
Her offense was just as good as her defense, scoring 20 points on 50% shooting from the field. The 27-year-old also nailed two out of three 3-pointers in a game where she was the best player. She scored 20 or more in back-to-back games in this series with no signs of letting up.
Odds have Copper's points total at 19.5 for today's showdown, and that seems more than reasonable as she's covered that mark 12 times this season. In her last three postseasons, she's averaged 18.4 points per game, and the Liberty have no viable defensive threat to prevent her from dominating yet again. Take the Over!
Pick: Kahleah Cooper Over 19.5 points (+105 at bet365)
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