The WNBA held a day of matinees on Wednesday, only to have two of those teams turn around for a rare back-to-back on Thursday. The New York Liberty are obvious hefty favorites against the Chicago Sky tonight, though the odd nature of this game could make for a fluky result.
Rather than risk that, my free Sky vs. Liberty predictions will focus on inevitable fatigue in my WNBA picks for July 11.
Sky vs Liberty predictions
My best bet
Over 166.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Chicago Sky have not played a back-to-back this season, which is particularly notable given how young they are. The New York Liberty have played in two back-to-backs, a bit of an anomaly in the WNBA.
The instinct may be to assume a back-to-back will yield an Under, with the teams too tired to get up-and-down the court. Seeing that New York has gone Under its total in its last four games only furthers that thought.
But that instinct is wrong.
Defense takes far more effort than offense does. When basketball players are exhausted, their defense lacks more than their shotmaking does.
Both of the Liberty’s back-to-backs this season ended with Overs, one of them by 24 points. New York scored 93 and 96 points, respectively, in those two games. Their offense is too potent to do anything but score against tired defenses.
That should be the case again today. The Sky depend on two rookies on the inside. Sure, you might think young players can bounce back best, but their inexperience could also leave them more exposed today. The Liberty are one of the most veteran and proven teams in the league, so they should have no such worry.
By no means can New York ease up and take this game lightly. The top of the WNBA standings is too tight, especially with the two-time defending champion Aces reeling off an 8-2 stretch to reach No. 4 in the standings, only 3.5 games behind the Liberty. Every win matters.
New York’s best path toward a win tonight is to challenge the fitness of Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso. The Liberty are not usually a fast-paced team, but betting on lackluster defensive performances tonight should show itself in many quick buckets.
Sky vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 166.5
Angel Reese Under 12.5 rebounds
Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 rebounds
Anyone knocking Angel Reese’s double-double streak is missing the point. Rookies are not supposed to be this consistent, let alone this consistently productive. But a faster-paced game may work against her.
In 10 of Reese’s last 15 games, she cleared this prop. Only one of those teams rated in the top-half of WNBA pace in the last month. Games that pick up the pace can work to Reese’s detriment, simply not getting down the court as quickly as smaller players will.
Perhaps the same worry should stick to Liberty center Jonquel Jones, but the veteran does not need as many boards as Reese, is vastly more experienced, and has topped this prop in five of her last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sky vs Liberty odds
Sky vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Sky vs Liberty WNBA odds for tonight.
Sky vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +11 | New York -11
- Moneyline: Chicago +470 | New York -700
- Over/Under: Over 166 | Under 166
Sky vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York opened as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday afternoon, a number that fell quickly on Thursday, bottoming out at -9.5.
- This spread fits in line with these teams' spreads against recent common opponents, while that -11 opener was far too high. For example, Chicago was a 7-point favorite against Atlanta yesterday, while New York was a 15.5-point favorite against the Dream less than two weeks ago. That 8.5-point difference between those numbers can logically grow to -9.5 today given the Sky’s need to travel much further overnight.
- This total opened at 166 on Wednesday and fell to 164.5 for most of the evening before an overnight rally to 167.5. It settled at 166.5 by mid-morning on Thursday.
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Sky vs Liberty trend
The Liberty are 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Liberty.
Sky vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX5 NY, The U |
Sky vs Liberty latest injuries
Sky: E. Williams (Out).
Liberty: None.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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