The last time Candace Parker visited her old team, the veteran forward posted a triple-double and led the Chicago Sky to an 82-59 road victory over the Los Angeles Sparks on June 23.
That win was one of seven victories the defending WNBA champs have posted in their past eight games, in which they have a 5-3 record against the spread. L.A. bounced back from that bad loss to Chicago with a 4-1 run but have since lost back-to-back outings and are catching +4.5 points at home tonight.
Here are our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for Sky at Sparks on July 14.
Sky vs Sparks odds
Los Angeles opened as low as +3.5 but has since climbed to +5 while the total hit the board at 162.5 and has jumped as many as five points to 168 points as of Thursday afternoon.
Odds via FanDuel. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sky vs Sparks predictions
Predictions made on 7/14/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Sparks info
• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Thursday, July 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Facebook, Spectrum Sportsnet
Sky vs Sparks betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: No injuries to report.
Sparks: Nneka Ogwumike F (Probable), Chennedy Carter G (Out), Rae Burrell F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-3 in Sky’s last 11 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sparks.
Sky vs Sparks picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Nneka Ogwumike has improved from questionable to probable after returning to practice yesterday, yet this spread keeps growing. The Sparks star forward sat out Tuesday’s 94-81 home loss to Washington due to illness, leaving L.A. outgunned and undermanned in the frontcourt.
Los Angeles needs Ogwumike to play big tonight, facing a Chicago attack that thrives on points in the paint (40.4 PITP is best in WNBA) and controls the glass (51.2% rebound rate). The Sky have really rounded into form on offense over those past eight contests, owning an offensive rating of 109.1 and firing at a league-high 57.6% effective field goal rate.
The Sparks are terribly inconsistent on defense, especially at home where they rank second last in advanced defensive rating. Los Angeles has just been run off its own court in the past two outings, allowing scores of 106 and 94 in home losses to Seattle and Washington. Those two foes fired at a collective 58% from the field.
The Storm and Mystics are two sound scoring teams but don’t have the horsepower of the Sky, who boast six players averaging double digits in points and a bench putting up 23.3 points a night — third most in the league. The reserves poured in 31 points in their last trip to the Crypto.com Arena, helping Chicago bettors easily cover as 5-point road chalk.
Los Angeles sits at 10-13 straight up in the West but seven of those W’s have come vs. clubs with sub-.500 records and L.A. hasn’t been able to hang with the WNBA’s elite.
The Sparks did upend the Sky in OT in the season opener, knocked off Washington without Elena Delle Donne, and stunned Seattle in a tough sandwich spot with the Storm coming off a win over the Mystics and looking ahead to a date with Las Vegas.
Even with this spread climbing, Chicago has the offensive output to clear the oddsmaker's expectations.
Prediction: Sky -4.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under number has seen a major move from an opener of 162.5 to as high as 168 points. The Sky and Sparks took on a closing total of 173 in that late-June matchup, as that number rose from an opener of 169.5 points.
They played Under the 173-point total in June thanks to a horrific offensive day from L.A., which shot a dismal 33% from the field, including a 3-for-18 effort from beyond the arc. The 59 points were the Sparks’ lowest output of the season, and while Chicago is very sound defensively, Los Angeles is capable of much more.
The Sky have allowed 80-plus points in four of the six games since that win in Los Angeles and do let their guard down a little more on the road. The Sparks can push tempo, ranked out as the fourth fastest pace in the WNBA, and Chicago has found another gear offensively with a pace rating of 98.4 over the last eight outings.
Given the monster move, I wouldn’t blame you for passing on the Over since the best of the number has long sailed. But with Ogwumike on the floor for L.A. and Chicago lighting up the scoreboard, we’ll lean Over.
Prediction: Over 167.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
A shot at the Sky’s team total at Over 85.5 points is tempting considering this club has topped that bar in nine of their last 10 contests. But with the spike in the game total, that team number has also had the value sucked dry.
Going back to the last matchup with Chicago, Los Angeles stumbled out of the blocks badly and managed only 25 total points in the opening half. While I expect better production from L.A., The Sky are known to come out swinging.
Chicago owns an average first-half margin of +6.5 over its last eight games while the Sparks sit at -7.4 in that same metric in their previous eight outings. Los Angeles trailed Washington by nine points at the break on Tuesday and was behind Seattle by 19 points after 20 minutes last Thursday.
The best price we can get on Chicago against is -4.5 (-120), so we’ll roll the dice on a double result (win first half/win game) at -115 and bank on the Sky’s strong starts to win the 1H, and scoring depth to carry us to the finish line in the closing two quarters.
Pick: Sky double result (-115 at bet365)
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