Sky vs Sun Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Total Eclipse for Connecticut

After taking a thriller on Sunday, the Chicago Sky are now one win away from making back-to-back WNBA Finals, with a chance to be the first repeat champions in 20 years. The Connecticut Sun don’t intend to be a footnote in the annals of hoops history though. The Sun’s players all realize that this is likely the last run this core group has together, and will aim to send the series back to Chicago for Game 5.

Game 4 of Sky vs. Sun is set for Tuesday, September 6. While this series has been a close-run thing, our WNBA picks and predictions believe the Sun won’t be able to recover from Sunday’s difficult loss in time to save their season. 

Sky vs Sun Game 4 best odds

Sky vs Sun Game 4 picks and predictions

Game 3 was a game played in the mud, and by the logic of this series, that should have favored the more physical Connecticut Sun. That the Sky still won — and won ugly — is further proof that they’re the superior team. 

Outside of Game 2, this series has largely been decided in clutch time, and as we elaborated in our Game 1 preview, the Sky were by far the best clutch team in the WNBA this season. The Sun, meanwhile, have the ignominious record of having the most playoff wins as a franchise without winning a championship. 

This iteration of the team has also been close before but always seems to find a way to come up short. That unsteadiness in the big moments was on full display in Game 3, where they missed a staggering number of shots in the paint — in theory, their greatest strength — while also coughing up 17 turnovers. Some of that is a credit to the tenacious Sky defense (they totaled 12 steals) but much of it was also just unforced errors and a consequence of poor spacing.

That lack of poise extended to coaching decisions as well, as Connecticut head coach Curt Miller opted to bench Jonquel Jones, the reigning MVP, for a three-minute stretch in clutch time. It was a deeply questionable move, as Jones is not only the best offensive big on the Sun, she’s the only one between herself, Alyssa Thomas, and Brionna Jones whom the Sky have to respect as a shooter. While Jones hadn’t shot well to that point, Thomas had played worse, and when it comes to a reigning MVP, sometimes “you just have to dance with the one who brung ya”. 

There’s no world in which the Sun win this series without Jonquel Jones and benching her was not only a foolish mistake, it shows a fundamental misunderstanding of Connecticut’s path to victory. Jones played just 24 minutes and, as if to punctuate the point, was the only starter with a positive plus/minus.

That Miller opted to bench Jones suggests that the Sky will have a psychological and coaching edge for the remainder of this series. It’s hard to play with confidence when the coach so unceremoniously removes the team's best player from a critical stretch, and the decision-making from Miller was so suspect one wonders if a similar move might cost them Game 4.

This game will likely still be close, and we’ve gained more and more evidence that the Sky can be trusted in close games in a way the Sun simply cannot.

My best bet: Sky Moneyline (-105 at betway)

Sky vs Sun series odds

Sky: -550
Sun : +425

Sky vs Sun betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Trend to know

Spread analysis

This line has seen Chicago drop from -1-point favorites into 1-point dogs, but there’s no reason from the film to think that Connecticut should have won Game 3, or are more likely to win Game 4. One can obviously point to the innumerable missed layups and shots around the basket that the Sun normally make, but one can just as easily point to the Sky’s Allie Quigley, one of the best shooters in the history of the WNBA, going 1-7 from deep and 1-11 overall. 

In terms of offensive regression, the Sun don’t have a stronger argument than the Sky themselves do. The Sky shot just 24% from three to the Sun’s 41.7% and still won. If Chicago has even an average shooting game on Tuesday, the math gets awfully difficult for Connecticut. 

Also, of importance to keep in mind is that after a loose Game 1, the referees have called a much tighter series. Game 3 featured 34 personal foul calls, compared to just 21 in the first game. More frequent whistles make it much harder for Connecticut to impose their style of play on Chicago, and is another reason to consider the Sky at -1.

Over/Under analysis

Scoring in this series has been a struggle. For the second time, both teams shot well under 40% from the field in Game 3. That the Sun continue to misfire on attempts in the paint strongly limits their offensive ceiling. Even though Connecticut shot north of 40% from three in Game 3, they are not a volume 3-point shooting team, and that high percentage did not translate to a quality offensive rating.

Game 3 also featured a four-minute scoring drought in the fourth quarter, part of which overlapped with Jones’ benching. As the intensity ramps up, both towards the end of games and deeper into the series, I continue to bank on the Under. These are ultimately defense-first teams, both quite effective at taking away each team's best options.

The total for Game 4 has thus been set at a modest 161.5, a reflection of the limited offensive output shown through three games. But even that number is too lofty. The first three totals in this series were 148, 162, and 131 for a total average of just 147. Given that teams typically score fewer points the longer a series goes on, I feel pretty comfortable backing the Under here.

Sky vs Sun game info

• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Tuesday, September 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN3

Sky vs Sun key injuries

Sky: No injuries to report.
Sun: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Sky vs Sun betting trend to know

Sky are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sun.

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