All eyes will be on two of the WNBA’s best teams as they face off tonight in their first meeting since the Chicago Sky pulled off the upset in the 2021 WNBA Semi-Finals, defeating the Connecticut Sun three games to one.
The matchup features the East’s No 1. Sun and No. 2 ranked Sky, pitting two teams that have gotten the season off to a tremendous start. The Sky, already loaded with talent, will receive a boost as Julie Allemand likely makes her season debut tonight after a stint overseas in the French LFB. Fans and bettors alike will be in for a highly competitive statement game.
Sky vs Sun odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Sky vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 6/10/2022 at 7:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sky vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Friday, June 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN+, CW-26
Sky vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Sky: Julie Allemand G (Ques), Li Yueru C (Ques).
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out), Kiara Smith G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Sky are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sun.
Sky vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Sun are the cream of the early-season crop, but the defending champion Sky come into this game as one of the more formidable teams in the WNBA. Winning seven out of the last 10 games, Chicago has defeated two potential playoff contenders in the Dream and Mystics in June. The Sky, who have found their footing, continue to grow stronger as more quality players return to the lineup.
The Sky look to repeat as champions and understand the importance of defense, making it a priority to set the tone every night. Through the team's first 11 games, Chicago sits at an impressive 96.3 defensive rating, the fourth-best in the WNBA. Coach James Wade has gained a reputation as a defensive-minded coach who took over the Sky in 2019, coming off a tumultuous 2018 season where they were unquestionably the worst defensive team in basketball.
Wade has revamped the defense in a few short years, making them a nightmare for opponents with tough and rangy athletes, including Courtney Vandersloot, Allie Quigley, Kahleah Copper, Candace Parker, and Emma Meesseman. The Sky have surrendered 80 or more points only six times this year, cementing them as one of the more formidable defenses in basketball.
The Sun's dominance is self-explanatory, posting impressive marks across the board in several defensive metrics. Their opponent points and field goal percentages per game rank in the Top 5, signaling a team that doesn't allow substantial outbursts. They've allowed 90 or more points only once this season, and have held opponents to 70 points or fewer five times —their 95.9 defensive rating is third-best in the WNBA.
Connecticut's 87.69 points per outing rank second-best in the league, making it a dangerous offensive team. The Sun have a beautifully balanced system with five players averaging double-digit points per game. The Sky, not far behind, rank fourth-best in the league in scoring per game, averaging 81.73 points per game. They, too, have five players averaging double-digit points per game, making it difficult for opponents to counter.
Neither team possesses an impressive ATS record this season, with the Sky at 5-6 and the Sun at 7-6. With two championship-caliber teams expected to fight a close contest, the Sky have yet to lose a game by more than seven points this season. Tonight will be tight, but I'd roll with the Sky, keeping this close enough down the wire.
Prediction: Sky +5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Whenever you have a team that possesses Top-2 rankings in points, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage, and rebounds, the Over will always garner serious consideration. That is the case for the Sun, who know how to score points — a lot of them. Such offensive firepower has helped surge the Sun to an 8-5 Over/Under since the start of the season.
Points are easy for both the Sky and Sun, as they share the ball with constant movement. The Sun often proves to have too much offensive firepower to be contained over a 40-minute game.
There should be caution in taking the Over, as the Sky aren't as formidable an offensive team on the road. In six road games this season, they’re are averaging 78 points per contest, a noticeable drop from their 84.8 points in home games. The Sky will have to up their scoring if they want to secure a victory, as the Sun average 85.7 points per game at home.
With two teams playing so well on both sides of the ball, it's difficult to tell which way the pendulum will swing. Championship-level teams understand the urgency of defense, and both are Top 5 teams in defensive efficiency. I wouldn't bank on this game reaching the Over — not when the Sun allow the fewest second-chance points in the WNBA.
Prediction: Under 162 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
When two of the best teams face off, it's important to look deeper into the numbers and see where one team might possess an advantage over another. One clear advantage for the Sun this season over virtually any other team has been their production in the first half.
The Suns are second in points (44.2), second in field goals made (16.2), second in field goal percentage (48.4), second in free throws attempted (10.3), and first in steals (4.9) in the first half of games. On the other hand, the Sky are seventh in points (38.5), seventh in FGs made (14.7), fifth in FG% (42.5), tied for eighth in FTA (7), and last in steals (3).
There is a stark difference between how these two teams produce in the first half of games. The Sky aren't a bad first-half team by any stretch, but they will be facing off with a Sun team that sets the tone from the beginning, and it will be difficult to offset that Friday night.
Pick: Sun first half moneyline (-180 at FanDuel)
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