The Connecticut Sun might have seen this final regular season matchup against the Chicago Sky as a chance to rest their starters, but they won’t have that luxury as they try to hang onto the No. 3 seed.
With motivation on their side, my Sky vs Sun predictions and WNBA picks expect Connecticut to roll on Thursday, September 19.
Sky vs Sun predictions
My best bet
Sun -14 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
After a tough week with back-to-back losses to fellow WNBA championship contenders, this showdown should be a welcome relief for the Connecticut Sun. They’ve taken care of business against teams in the bottom half of the standings, covering the spread in their last four games against teams with a losing record.
That includes an 86-66 win over the Sparks earlier this month, and I’m wagering on a similar type of performance here against a Chicago Sky team that’s faded in a big way since the Olympic break. Connecticut has won eight of the past nine meetings between these teams, with the only loss coming in overtime, and it’s hard to see anything other than a double-digit victory for the hosts tonight, even if they sit their starters in the fourth quarter.
This pick is equally about the Sky’s offensive limitations. Chicago has scored 70 points or fewer in three of its last four games, and the visitors may be without Chennedy Carter and Kamilla Cardoso once again.
That spells trouble against the Sun’s stellar defense, and it was left to Rachel Banham and Lindsay Allen to do the bulk of the scoring in the 86-70 loss against the Atlanta Dream on Tuesday. The large spread suggests that we’ll see plenty of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and the other Connecticut starters tonight.
There’s every incentive for the hosts to chase a victory that would cement the No. 3 seed ahead of the Aces, meaning they wouldn't have to face the powerhouse Liberty until the third round. The Sun are 13-6 at home this year and, with the Sky’s lengthy injury list, I anticipate one-way traffic at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Sky vs Sun same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -14
Under 153.5
Lindsay Allen Over 9.5 points
Despite laying the points, the Under is an attractive pick and I can’t buy into any kind of consistent offense from this injury-riddled Sky lineup. Role players are being asked to do too much, and Chicago limped to just 58 points against the Washington Mystics last week.
The Under is 7-3 in the Sky’s past 10 games, and it’s 6-1 in the Sun’s last seven outings on one day’s rest. That feels like the safer play.
Then there’s Connecticut’s offense, which can be streaky — and only Chicago attempts fewer 3-pointers per game than the Sun. I expect this to be a defense-first grind, unlike the teams’ first three meetings this year which all went past tonight’s line of 153.5.
Someone has to score some baskets for the Sky and I’m wagering that Allen will again see an uptick in usage. She’s coming off her best game of the month — 16 points, including eight free-throws, on Tuesday — and she ended up with 14 points the last time she faced Connecticut.
Chicago is so short on offensive firepower that Allen should get more than enough minutes and shots to bring the Over within reach.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sky vs Sun odds
Sky vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Sky vs Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Sky vs Sun opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -12.5 (-110) | Chicago +12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Connecticut -800 | Chicago +550
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Sky vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun have won all three matchups against the Sky this year, and they’re 16-6 ATS in their past 22 Thursday contests.
- With Angel Reese among several players sidelined, the Sky have lost four in a row and are just 16-23 ATS this season.
- Though the Over has hit in the past four meetings between these teams, the Under is 5-1-1 in Connecticut’s last seven games.
- The Under is 4-1 in Chicago’s last five road contests, with Theresa Weatherspoon constantly having to reshuffle her rotation.
Sky vs Sun trend
Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Sun.
Sky vs Sun game info
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, CT |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
Sky vs Sun latest injuries
Sky: Angel Reese F (Out), Elizabeth Williams C (Out).
Sun: Tiffany Mitchell G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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