The Seattle Storm have relied on defense to hang near the top of the league, but they cannot quite crack the Top 4. Now they have one last game to perhaps reach that echelon before entering a month-long break, a likelihood given the Storm are favored by three buckets against the Los Angeles Sparks.
These Storm vs. Sparks predictions will focus on Seattle’s greatest strength before tip this afternoon.
Read on for my full WNBA picks on Tuesday, July 16.
Storm vs Sparks predictions
My best bet
Sparks team total Under 76.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Seattle Storm have the second-best defense in the WNBA, according to their defensive rating across the last month. It helps camouflage a largely-average offense, ranking No. 5 in the league in offensive rating in the same stretch.
But when praising Seattle’s defense, do not forget to give some credit to that offense. Made buckets are an underappreciated asset for corresponding defenses, allowing them to get set rather than worry about transition. In that regard, the Storm should score plenty this afternoon given the Los Angeles Sparks have the second-worst defensive rating in the last month.
But beyond Seattle’s offense, there are plenty of reasons to trust its defense. The most obvious among them is that Los Angeles’s offensive rating ranks only No. 8 in the last month. An unfair amount of its workload hinges upon forward Dearica Hamby, the only Sparks player to average more than 12 points or 10 shot attempts per game.
The Storm have two strong forwards to slow Hamby, as both Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike can focus on Los Angeles’s only potent offensive piece.
If Hamby is slowed at all, the Sparks will effectively be doomed. Seattle gives up the second-fewest looks from deep per game, cutting off any other viable approach for Los Angeles to put up points.
Storm vs Sparks same-game parlay (SGP)
Sparks TT Under 76.5
Dearica Hamby Under 19.5 points
Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 threes
Hamby regularly clears this points prop, including in five of her last seven games, but her most recent moment of falling short was against the only defense better than Seattle’s, the Minnesota Lynx. The Storm should be able to comfortably focus on Hamby to such an extent that she is again hemmed in.
Jewell Loyd is one piece of Seattle’s lineup that will not worry about Hamby. She's one of the most prolific shooters in the league. She has struggled of late, going 0-for-8 from deep in her last two games and just 3-for-24 in her last five.
The good news for Loyd is Los Angeles gives up the highest 3-point shooting percentage in the league, 37.2%. She will take her shots, as always, and they should be a bit more open against this defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Storm vs Sparks odds
Storm vs Sparks live odds
Get the latest Storm vs Sparks WNBA odds for tonight.
Storm vs Sparks opening odds
- Spread: Seattle -9.0 (-110) | Los Angeles +9.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seattle -500 | Los Angeles +375
- Over/Under: Over 160 (-110) | Under 160 (-110)
Storm vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle opened as a 9-9.5-point favorite late on Sunday, falling to -8 by Monday evening and then rallying to -8.5 or -9, depending on your sportsbook.
- Both teams hosted the Lynx within the last week, the Storm 6.5-point favorites, and the Sparks 4.5-point underdogs. That 11-point difference makes sense when looking at today’s spread and adding in Los Angeles’ homecourt advantage.
- This total opened at 160 late on Sunday and climbed to 160.5 early on Monday, then 161.5 in the night.
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Storm vs Sparks trend
Los Angeles’s last three games and five of its last six all went Under their totals, just as three of Seattle’s last four did, the exception being a push. Find more WNBA betting trends for Storm vs. Sparks.
Storm vs Sparks game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-16-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video |
Storm vs Sparks latest injuries
Storm: Mackenzie Holmes F (Out).
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Out), Cameron Brink F (Out), Julie Allemand G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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