It’s a cross-conference clash so nice, they’re going to do it twice. The compressed WNBA schedule kept the Connecticut Sun in Sin City this week for a second straight showdown with the Las Vegas Aces.
Las Vegas won the first meeting with an 89-81 home victory on Tuesday, covering as a 4-point favorite and improving to 9-1 SU and 8-2 against the spread on the season. Bookmakers are pegging the spread for Thursday’s matchup around the same, with Vegas giving between -4.5 and -5.
Check out our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs. Aces on June 2.
Sun vs Aces odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Sun vs Aces predictions
Predictions made on 6/2/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Aces info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Thursday, June 2, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MYLVTV, NESN+
Sun vs Aces betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: Joyner Holmes F (Questionable).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sun are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.
Sun vs Aces picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Aces imposed their style of play on the Sun in Tuesday’s contest, upping the pace of the game beyond Connecticut’s comfort level and capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes at that increased tempo.
The game posted a pace rating of 103.8 – well beyond the Sun’s methodical norm of 95.0 – and Connecticut coughed up the ball a total of 14 times, which Las Vegas converted into 22 points off turnovers. Those errors fueled a 22-2 edge for the Aces in fastbreak points and helped build a 20-point lead early on — the Sun couldn’t claw their way out of that hole.
But it wasn’t just Vegas running Connecticut out of the gym that made the difference. The Aces nullified the Sun’s biggest strengths in Tuesday’s win, mixing in a lot of zone sets to combat Connecticut’s interior prowess.
They kept the Sun off the glass and limited their second-chance points (in which Sun lead the WNBA), checked them to just 30 points in the paint (average 38.2 PITP), and limited their own mistakes with 14 turnovers flipping for just 17 points against (Sun forced 17.4 TO for league-high 22.3 points off turnovers).
Las Vegas’ defense also held Connecticut to 6-of-22 success from beyond the arc (27%), with the Sun entering Tuesday as the top 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces have really flexed their muscles on that end of the floor in recent outings, owning an advanced defensive rating of 91.7 over the past three games.
The Sun are a sound team, but as we mentioned in our picks piece for Tuesday’s game, they haven’t played the stiffest competition and their record seems bloated when you add up wins against the likes of New York, L.A., and Indiana.
Tuesday’s final score makes it seem like the game was closer than it really was, with the Sun putting on a late push and forcing the Aces to bring the starters back on to close out the fourth quarter. There’s still a rather large gap between the Aces and the rest of the WNBA’s contenders, and it’s bigger than 4.5 points.
Prediction: Aces -4.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Connecticut has shown an ability to regroup and adjust in the second meeting with foes this season, rolling over the Liberty, Fever and Dallas Wings in their rematches. Each of those return meetings saw Connecticut clamp down on defense, giving up point totals of 65, 70, and 68 in those contests.
The Sun will undoubtedly have a tighter game plan for this second showdown with Vegas, especially considering that coach Curt Miller got clear of COVID protocols just before Tuesday’s game and didn’t have much in-person prep. A more patient and careful offensive approach is first and foremost, with the Sun making sure not to fall into the trap of playing at the Aces’ tempo.
Neither team shot the ball well Tuesday, most notably from deep where they combined to go just 12 of 47 from beyond the arc. However, the quicker pace of the game and Las Vegas scoring points at the free-throw line helped push the final score Over the total.
The Aces’ aggressive approach and fastbreak put the bigger Sun defense on its heels and out of position, which led to Las Vegas drawing 17 fouls and making 17 of its 20 free throw attempts for plenty of points with the clock stopped.
With the Sun trying to make this matchup more their speed and not throwing gas on Vegas’ fire with bad turnovers, I expect the pace of Thursday’s outing to drop considerably. Connecticut will also have a better game plan for breaking the Aces’ zone, which will rely on ball movement and interior dump-ins – all of which chew up shot clock.
Prediction: Under 168.5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Vegas brings more to the table in terms of ways to win a basketball game. The Aces won Tuesday’s contest on the back of their defense, throwing a smothering zone at the Sun and creating turnovers which led to fastbreak buckets.
But Becky Hammon’s team isn’t married to that style of play and can just as easily overwhelm opponents with offense, boasting a talent-rich roster that pulls double figures in points from five different players.
Las Vegas is going to leave it all out on the floor tonight knowing there’s an extended break (in terms of the crazy WNBA slate) ahead, with two days off and no travel before hosting Dallas on Sunday. Hammon won’t take her foot off the gas and Vegas owns a +12 margin of victory with wins over five 2021 playoff teams so far this season.
Pick: Aces -4.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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