Sun vs Aces Picks and Predictions: Vegas Continues Domination with Win Over Connecticut

Beasts of the East clash with the best in the West when the Connecticut Sun come to Sin City for a showdown with the Las Vegas Aces on Tuesday.

The Sun have risen to the top of the Eastern Conference table with a 6-2 straight up mark (4-4 ATS), including back-to-back statement wins over Washington and Dallas. The Aces lead the Western Conference with a red-hot 8-1 SU start to 2022 (7-2 ATS) and have won six straight heading into tonight’s marquee WNBA betting matchup.

Here are our free WNBA betting picks and predictions for Connecticut at Las Vegas on May 31.

Sun vs Aces odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Sun vs Aces predictions

• Prediction: Aces -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 167.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Aces -4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 5/31/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Sun vs Aces info

• Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Tuesday, May 31, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Sun vs Aces betting preview

Key injuries

Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out), Joyner Holmes F (Out).
Aces: Riquna Williams G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Aces are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.

Sun vs Aces picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Connecticut has shown some impressive grit and focus in its past two games, considering the loss of team captain Jasmine Thomas to a season-ending knee injury, travel and practice issues, and being without head coach Curt Miller and assistant coach Brandi Poole for Saturday’s win over Washington.

The schedule doesn’t take it easy on the Sun either, sending the team to Vegas for their third game in six days. Connecticut faces the only other team scoring more points than it, with the Aces owning an offensive rating of 110.7, and boasting five players averaging 12.8 points or higher on the season.

Las Vegas overwhelms opponents with that deep lineup, but also has the fastest tempo in the league, running out a pace rating of 99.73. That contrasts Connecticut’s more methodical approach, which sits second slowest in terms of pace in the WNBA (93.90). Look for Vegas to turn up the tempo and put a bigger Sun rotation on their heels, not giving that defense much time to get set in the halfcourt.

That said, the Sun do a great job slowing down foes, thanks in part to their snail-pace attack, but also a tough defense that plugs up the passing lanes and hits the glass hard on the defensive end. Connecticut creates a ton of turnovers — forcing 17.9 per game — and is fantastic at translating those errors into buckets, putting up a league-high 23 points off turnovers per game.

However, those easy points won’t be there tonight. Becky Hammon’s team gives little back in bonus possessions, committing only 11.9 turnovers per contest (lowest in the WNBA) and letting those bloopers morph in a mere 13.7 points against.

Connecticut is a strong team, but perhaps not as good as its record would indicate. Five of the Sun’s wins have come against New York, Los Angeles, and Indiana, who combine for an 8-20 record. It split a pair of games with Dallas last week and beat a Mystics team playing without Alysha Clark and Elena Delle Donne. 

We’re scooping up this relatively short spread with the better team owning the edge in energy on its home court.

Prediction: Aces -4.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

Hammon has the team’s focus on defense heading into this big matchup. The Aces were able to overcome a poor offensive effort in Chicago last time out due to their defensive intensity, limiting the Sky to just 35% shooting from the field and 5 of 31 from beyond the arc. Las Vegas is especially stingy when it comes to guarding the perimeter, checking foes to just 29% success from deep with a very active approach that switches quickly on high screens. 

Connecticut enters Tuesday as the second-best 3-point shooting team in the WNBA (behind Vegas) but could find clean long-range looks hard to come by against an aggressive Aces defense — while also shooting with tired legs thanks to the compressed sked. On top of that, the Sun generate almost 27% of their total offense off turnovers and, as discussed, those chances just won’t be there tonight.

Connecticut is no slouch on the defensive end of the floor. It protects the paint and doesn’t give away many second-chance scoring opportunities — limiting opponents to just 29.5 points inside the key — and boasting a league-best rebound rate of 56.2%.

As good as these teams are on offense — ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points — bookies are showing the defenses plenty of respect with this total of 167.5 points. Tuesday's contest will have playoff-like intensity — at least from the Aces — keeping the final below the total.

Prediction: Under 167.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

Best bet

Last year, the Sun swept the Aces in all three meetings, and Las Vegas is well aware that these clubs could meet again late in the playoffs, with Tuesday (and Thursday’s second of back-to-back matchups) serving as a potential finals preview.

Connecticut’s validity is in question considering its quality of opponents and a ho-hum 4-4 against the spread record through the first eight games. The Aces, on the other hand, have beaten down some quality foes like Seattle and Atlanta, but more importantly, have blown oddsmakers’ expectations out of the water with a +12.4 margin of victory on the season — leading to a 7-2 ATS count.

Hammon’s team has the home edge, motivational factors, and are better rested with three games spread across nine days instead of Connecticut’s three-in-six grinder.

Pick: Aces -4.5 (-110 at PointsBet)

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