Playoff seeding is on the line as the season draws to a close, and Sunday’s matchup between the Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces could have major postseason implications.
Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA this season, and the Aces aren’t far behind. Both teams have been winning frequently due to superb play on that end of the court, and my Sun vs. Aces predictions expect another low-scoring affair in Sin City.
My WNBA picks for September 15 detail why you should hammer the Under for this matchup of WNBA heavyweights.
Sun vs Aces predictions
My best bet
Under 159.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After two successful best bets targeting player props in my last two articles, I’m pivoting to a no-brainer wager on tonight’s total. On the season, Connecticut has allowed the fewest points per game to opponents (73.7), and Las Vegas has allowed the sixth-fewest (81.3). Over the last five, however, the Sun are the only team to hold opponents under 70 points (69.0), and Las Vegas has allowed the second-fewest points (72.4).
Across their last 10 outings, the Aces are 2-8 to the Under, and the Sun are 4-6 to the Under. Las Vegas has hit the Under in five straight, and Connecticut has hit it in four of five. Both teams are 16-21-0 to the Under on the season, and both head-to-head matchups have hit the Under this season.
As the season winds down, the playoff hunt intensifies. Connecticut is just one game back of the Minnesota Lynx for the No. 2 seed, while Las Vegas is one game up on the Seattle Storm for the No. 4 seed. Teams tend to tighten up this time of year, and scores can be a bit lower than usual, even if the matchup isn’t already between the two best defenses in the WNBA. This point total is a bit high here given the recent play from both teams, and if it were set at 153.5 or even 154.5, I’d be tempted to look at the Over. At 159.5, I’m hammering the Under.
Sun vs Aces same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 159.5
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 threes
Aces -4.5
Season-long trends point to the Under, but recent trends scream it from the rooftops. Las Vegas hasn’t hit the Over in five straight, and Connecticut has done so only once across its last five games. These are the two best defenses in the WNBA over their last five, and bettors should expect a low-scoring affair.
Kelsey Plum is one of the WNBA’s best three-point shooters, and she’s been on a roll as of late. Across her last six, she’s averaged 3.5 made triples and hit the Over on this prop five times. On the season, she’s cashed this one 21 times in 36 appearances, good for 58.3% of her games. She’s been even better at home, hitting the mark in 12 of 17 (70.5%). She’s gone Over in both matchups with Connecticut this season and seven of her last 12 against the Sun dating back to 2022.
Las Vegas covered in both head-to-head matchups this season, and the team has covered in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, including five of the last six. On the season overall, the Aces are 6-0-1 across their last seven. Connecticut has covered in three straight, but those games were against a struggling Mercury squad and a down-on-its-luck Sparks team. The Sun will play their fourth road game in a week, and a combination of fatigue and facing a quality opponent sets up the Aces to cover this modest 4.5-point spread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Aces odds
Sun vs Aces live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Aces WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Aces opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas -4.5 (-110) | Connecticut (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas -220 | Connecticut +180
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Sun vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun are 7-3 straight up across their last 10, and the team has covered in six of those matchups.
- The Aces have an identical straight-up record over their last 10 and have covered in six of those matchups as well.
- Las Vegas is riding a five-game Under streak, and Connecticut has gone Over just once in its last five outings.
- Both teams are 16-21-0 to the Under on the season, and Connecticut boasts the WNBA’s stingiest defense.
Sun vs Aces trend
The Sun have allowed the fewest points to opponents since the Olympic break, and the Aces have allowed the fourth-fewest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces.
Sun vs Aces game info
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
Sun vs Aces latest injuries
Sun: No injuries to report.
Aces: Tiffany Mitchell (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
