The post-All-Star schedule is here, and that means the playoffs are quickly approaching. The Connecticut Sun and Indiana Fever will match up today, with one of these teams looking to the postseason.
Fresh off the WNBA All-Star weekend, which featured two of the stars playing in this afternoon's contest, the Sun will look to get back into top form, which made them one of the dominant teams earlier in the season. The Fever, on the other, hand appear to already be tanking for the draft.
See how two struggling offenses play into our Fever vs. Sun WNBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 13.
Sun vs Fever odds
Connecticut opened up as a strong -8.5 road favorite, and the line had increased to -9.5 earlier in the day before settling at -9. The Over/Under has held steady at 163 on most sites.
Odds via bet365. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sun vs Fever predictions
- Prediction: Connecticut -9 (-105)
- Prediction: Under 162.5 (-105)
- Best bet: Bonner Over 12.5 points (-115)
Predictions made on 7/13/2022 at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Fever info
• Location: Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV, NESN
Sun vs Fever betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Fever: Lexie Hull G (Ques), Queen Egbo F (Ques).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in Sun’s last seven games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Fever.
Sun vs Fever picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
To put it kindly, this is a lopsided matchup. The Sun, although struggling just a bit lately, still do a lot of things well, whereas the Fever don’t do much of anything well. The first glaring difference between these two teams is their efficiency. The Sun rank second in the league in team field goal percentage (45.5%), while the Fever are dead last (40.5%).
Those efficiency numbers shouldn’t surprise anyone as Connecticut's top scorers — Jonquel Jones and Brionna Jones — each shoot over 50% from the field. In contrast, the Fevers' Top 2 scorers are Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith, neither of whom shoots over 45%. That’s the bulk of Indiana’s scoring coming at a far less efficient rate.
The Fever excel at crashing the offensive boards. They currently rank No. 1 in the league with 10.3 offensive rebounds per game — an area that can typically keep them in a game. Unfortunately for Indiana, the Sun are also an exceptional offensive rebounding team grabbing 9.6 per game, second-best in the league. Not only does Connecticut negate that edge with its own offensive rebounding, but is second-best on the defensive glass too, and will put up a fight against Indiana’s crashing.
The three matchups between the Sun and Fever haven’t gone well for Indiana at all. The previous meetings saw the Fever lose by nine, 19, and 22 points. Connecticut has a deep team that can beat you in many ways. In their June 8 matchup, the Sun prevailed by doing what they do best — sharing the ball and allowing everyone a chance to score, with five players hitting double digits. The Sun are the better team and will demonstrate this once more.
Prediction: Connecticut -9 (-105 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
In the last six games, both the Sun and the Fever have been way below average in a number of important metrics. Connecticut has scored 73.3 points per game in that timeframe while Indiana has scored 71.8 — the two lowest figures in the entire league. Predictably, assists have been on the downside as well, with the Sun third-worst (18) and Fever outright worst (15.5).
The defensive side of the ball doesn’t get much better for Indiana during this stretch, ranking in the bottom three in steals and blocks. For the season, their defensive rating ranks last (107.8), a stark difference between the Sun, who rank fourth (96.5). Will the Sun be able to snap out of their terrible offensive streak to capitalize on the Fever’s lousy defense?
In the last 10 games, the Fever and Sun each scored 80 points or more in five matchups. The Sun still remain in the Top 5 in defensive rating (96.5) and should have a little issue holding Indiana's Bottom 2 offense to a low-scoring night.
For the season, Connecticut has a 10-11-1 Over/Under record while the Fever are 13-10-1. With both teams struggling on offense lately, put your money on the Under.
Prediction: Under 162.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Best bet
I’ll be the first to admit that DeWanna Bonner’s production is down in 2022, but the towering forward is still a first-rate bucket-getter who can score with the best of them. The two-time WNBA champion and four-time WNBA All-Star is averaging 13.4 points in 30.8 minutes per game and her ability to score in bursts is a big reason why Connecticut is second in the East.
Just as importantly, Bonner has had tremendous success against Indiana over the years. She’s averaged 15.5 points in 29 career games against the Fever and erupted for 18 points in 35 minutes against Indy on May 20.
Bonner has already gone Over 12.5 points 10 times this season and should have no problem surpassing her season average today against a lax Indiana squad that’s allowing opponents to score 88.6 points per game.
Pick: DeWanna Bonner Over 12.5 points (-115 at bet365)
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