The Indiana Fever will look for their first win of the Caitlin Clark era as they host the Connecticut Sun at Gainbridge Fieldhouse tonight
The Fever have yet to keep it close in any of their first three games this season and are clear underdogs at home in the WNBA betting odds against the Sun who blew out Indiana in their first meeting this year.
My Sun vs Fever predictions will take a look at whether Indiana can find a way to stay in this game or if it’ll be another blowout loss for the Fever in my free WNBA picks — along with a Caitlin Clark odds — for Monday, May 20.
Sun vs Fever predictions
My best bet
Sun -6 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
While nobody should blame the sharpshooting rookie, the Indiana Fever are off to a dreadful start with Caitlin Clark on the roster. In their first three games this season, the Fever have lost by an average of 22.7 points, ranking last in scoring (72.3 points per game) and points allowed (95.0 ppg) in the WNBA.
It can’t possibly stay that bad for Indiana. Last year’s team finished with a -4.1 differential on the season, and this year’s roster is certainly improved with Clark on the team. We can expect some regression to the mean as the season goes on.
But that may not happen tonight against one of the league’s premier teams. Connecticut is off to a quick 2-0 start, and behind the league’s two superteams, there may not be a more talented roster in the WNBA. The Sun are led by last year’s MVP runner-up Alyssa Thomas, who is averaging 13 points and 10.5 rebounds per game to start the season.
In the first meeting between these teams, Indiana’s problems went well beyond stopping Thomas, however. She was one of five Sun players in double figures, led by Dewanna Bonner, who scored 20 points on 8-of-14 shooting. This was also Clark’s debut, in which she committed 10 turnovers. Clark is averaging seven turnovers per game over her first three professional outings, and while I don’t expect her to hit double digits again, the Sun will certainly continue to hound the rookie.
Indiana will start to close the gap on its opponents, but that’ll happen when its schedule softens a bit. For now, another date against the Sun is a recipe for another blowout. I’m taking Connecticut to cover.
Caitlin Clark odds, prop for tonight
My best bet
Caitlin Clark Over 3.5 made threes (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Clark may be a rookie, but shooters are gonna shoot. The all-time leading scorer in NCAA basketball history has lived up to that mantra so far in her WNBA career, taking an average of 13.3 shots per game in her first three appearances.
Clark has been throwing up shots from downtown at a prodigious rate. She has put up 28 threes already this year, and it’s hard to imagine that she’ll slow down as she settles into the Indiana offense. Already, she’s taken at least 10 shots from beyond the arc in two of her games, hitting four threes in each of those contests.
That includes her much-maligned debut against the Sun on May 14. Sure, Clark struggled early, and the turnovers made her first professional game look ugly. But she still went 4-for-11 from deep, and we’re going to see more performances like that as the Fever pursue two goals – developing their No. 1 pick, and keeping Clark front and center for her legion of fans.
After a disappointing home debut against the New York Liberty last week, Clark is still looking for her first big performance in front of the Indiana faithful. Look for her to shoot regularly and hit the Over on her made threes prop bet at a reasonable total of 3.5.
Sun vs Fever same-game parlay (SGP)
Sun -6
Caitlin Clark 4+ threes
Over 163.5
For my same-game parlay, I’m going to start with the two picks I’ve made above. I like the Sun to cover, and Clark should get plenty of opportunities to shoot the ball. With those two picks at least somewhat negatively correlated, we can get excellent value by parlaying them together.
I’ll also throw in a bet on the Over tonight. Indiana has yet to play to a total of less than 163 this season, and with Clark now working her way into the offense, the Fever should be playing high-scoring basketball – even if they can’t win that many games just yet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Fever odds
Sun vs Fever live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Fever WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Fever opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut -5.5 | Indiana +5.5
- Moneyline: Connecticut -245 | Indiana +209
- Over/Under: Over 164 | Under 164
Sun vs Fever spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tonight’s game opened with Connecticut as a 5.5-point favorite. Bettors have pushed that number higher, with various books offering the game as Sun -6 or -6.5 as of noon on Monday.
- Dating back to last season, the Sun are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against Indiana, including covering ATS in their May 14 meeting this season.
- The Sun defeated the Fever 92-71 in their first meeting this year, covering the 6.5-point spread.
- In Connecticut’s first two games, they have played to totals of 161 and 163, while Indiana has played to an average total of 167.3 this season.
Sun vs Fever trend
The Sun are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Fever, winning outright in all eight contests. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Fever.
Sun vs Fever game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Field House, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Monday, May 20, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Sun vs Fever latest injuries
Sun: Rachel Banham (Out)
Fever: Damiris Dantas (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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