The WNBA is serving up a heavyweight clash tonight as the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx aim to prove they belong at the heart of the contenders' conversation.
At 15-4, the Sun are as steady as ever, and they held the Phoenix Mercury in check in an 83-72 victory on Monday. Meanwhile, the Lynx are right on their tail with a 14-5 record and, despite the offense showing in Tuesday’s loss to the New York Liberty, they’re 9-1 at home this season.
Minnesota enters as a narrow favorite in the latest WNBA odds, but will that affect my WNBA picks and Sun vs Lynx predictions for Thursday, July 4?
Sun vs Lynx predictions
My best bet
Napheesa Collier Over 9.5 rebounds (-102 FanDuel)
My analysis
This matchup is too close to call, with both teams shining in the first half of the season, so I’m staying away from the moneyline.
Instead, I’m focusing on the rebounds market for this contest, which features the two stingiest points-per-game defenses in the league and could quickly become a physical affair.
That hints at a busy night for Napheesa Collier as the Minnesota Lynx’s best rebounder. While Connecticut will turn loose both Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner on the glass, Collier carries an even bigger burden — and I like the Over on this 9.5 O/U line.
Collier is averaging 10.4 rpg this year, putting her behind only Angel Reese and A’Ja Wilson, and she’s posted 10 or more boards in four of her last five outings while playing at least 35 minutes in each of those games.
I see that as a repeatable formula here. Minnesota is holding opponents to just 39% shooting from the field in 2024, and Collier is the likeliest player to vacuum up rebounds for the hosts.
At the other end of the floor, offensive rebounds could be a factor too if the Lynx shoot as badly as they did against the Liberty last time out, where they made just 26 of their 67 shots.
The Connecticut Sun crushed the Mercury on the boards 37-18 on Monday, and Minnesota will need Collier’s A-game to hold up in that key battleground tonight.
Sun vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Napheesa Collier Over 9.5 rebounds
Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 assists
DiJonai Carrington Over 13.5 points
So much of the Sun’s game plan flows through Thomas’ do-it-all skill set, and I took a long look at all of her props for tonight. In the end, the Over on her assists total seems like the best value, with Thomas tallying seven or more dimes eight times in June.
Against a stubborn Minnesota defense, I expect Thomas to be at the controls early and often, staying on course for her season average of 7.5 apg.
With defenses focused on Thomas and Bonner, Connecticut guard DiJonai Carrington has been making the most of her scoring chances in recent weeks. I’m expecting more of the same tonight, with Carrington pouring in 16 points or more in four of her last five games.
Her 3-point shot looked good last week, with a combined 7-for-15 line from downtown against the Washington Mystics and Atlanta Dream, and she got to the line eight times in the win over Phoenix earlier this week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Lynx odds
Sun vs Lynx live odds
Get the latest Sun vs Lynx WNBA odds for tonight.
Sun vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Connecticut +3 | Minnesota -3
- Moneyline: Connecticut +33 | Minnesota -153
- Over/Under: Over 151 | Under 151
Sun vs Lynx spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Sun are 8-2 in the past 10 meetings between these teams, and they’ve won four of the last five matchups, but the Lynx get the favorites tag with their 12-4 ATS mark this season.
- After opening as a 1.5-point line with some sportsbooks, that spread has climbed to either 3 or 3.5 depending on where you’re wagering.
- Minnesota’s offense has blown hot and cold over the past few weeks, scoring 88 points or more in four of their last 10 games while also failing to get past 70 points three times in that span.
- These teams needed overtime to cash the Over in their prior matchup this season, and the 150.5 O/U line suggests we’re going to get a defense-first showdown here.
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Sun vs Lynx trend
With their elite defensive intensity, the Sun have hit the Under in five of their last seven contests. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSB, BSN |
Sun vs Lynx latest injuries
Sun: Moriah Jefferson (Out).
Lynx: None to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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