Washington Mystics vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Too Low a Total for Two Clicking Offenses

The Connecticut Sun will look to continue their winning ways at home on Sunday afternoon when they host Elena Delle Donne and the Washington Mystics in a matchup between Eastern Conference WNBA rivals.

Both teams are coming off a win heading into today’s game. Connecticut (13-5) beat the Seattle Storm 93-73 on Thursday night, while Washington (10-7) last played on Friday, scoring a 96-88 win over the Indiana Fever.

While neither team is known for having a high-octane approach, both squads have been flashing some scoring punch in recent games. We’ll break down what that means for WNBA odds bettors in our free WNBA picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Sun on July 9. 

Mystics vs Sun best odds

Mystics vs Sun picks and predictions

When it comes to pace metrics, the Washington Mystics and the Connecticut Sun rank right in the middle of the pack among WNBA teams. Yet that hasn’t stopped these two clubs from playing high-scoring basketball on a consistent basis over the last few weeks.

For the season, Washington has been the best defensive team in the league, allowing a WNBA-best 77.4 points per game. Its offense has only been average, putting up 80.5 points a night, but that’s been enough to build a winning record. 

Recently, however, the Mystics have been finding themselves battling teams in shootouts on a nightly basis. In each of the team’s last five games, Washington has played to a total of 161 points or more. In four of those games, the total has been at least 177, and the Mystics have scored 88 points or more four times in that span.

Connecticut has both scored more points per game (84.4) and allowed more (79.2) than Washington this year, though it isn’t exactly one of the league’s biggest run-and-gun teams either. Just like the Mystics, however, the Sun have found themselves playing to higher scores on a regular basis in recent games.

Connecticut has played to totals of above 160 points in nine of its last 11 games. Even in the exceptions — an 89-68 win over the Minnesota Lynx, and an 83-74 victory at the Los Angeles Sparks — the Sun played to a reasonable total of 157 points. Connecticut is riding a four-game streak in which every game has come in above 165 points, and the Sun haven’t scored less than 80 points in any of their last 14 contests.

That brings us to tonight’s game, in which the total has been set as low as 159.5 points at some sites. This is the kind of number that looks reasonable when you look at the season-long averages for these teams. Washington’s average total of 157.9 actually comes in under the number, while Connecticut’s average (163.6) isn’t far above it.

But that ignores what we’ve seen from these teams as of late. If this were an aberration of just a few games on one side, we could chalk it up to variance, but these two teams are clearly playing a different brand of basketball as we head into the summer. It’s rare that either team has gotten close to this number recently, let alone below it.

With both Washington and Connecticut poised to score points tonight, I’m taking the Over. And while it’s best to find the lowest number you can grab, I’d be happy to place this bet even at 160.5 or 161 points, which is about as high as it sits at any sportsbook as of Sunday morning.

My best bet: Over 159.5 points (-113 at Unibet)

Mystics vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis

The Sun came into today’s game as a 4.5-point favorites at most sites. That number has solidified into the consensus spread as of Sunday morning. You’ll find that line with -110 odds at most books, though there are a few offering a flat four-point spread instead.

Both teams have played close against the spread this season. The Mystics are 8-9 ATS, while the Sun come in sporting a 9-8-1 ATS mark in 2023.

It feels as though Connecticut should be a slightly larger favorite than that at home. Washington has lost its last three road games, while the Sun are a very solid 6-3 on the year at Mohegan Sun Arena. The Mystics should have Delle Donne available, which will give them the most dominant player on the court, but Connecticut has a deep enough lineup that I rate them as being slightly more talented, even with the loss of Brionna Jones. I’m leaning towards the Sun on the spread this afternoon.

When the Over/Under first opened for today’s game, it was set at 159.5. That’s come up a point at most books, with 160.5 being the closest thing to a consensus total. However, you can still find that 159.5 number by shopping around, and if you prefer the Under, there are even books that have moved up to a flat 161.

The Over has played to a 12-6 record in Connecticut games, while the Under has gone 11-5-1 when the Mystics play. However, Washington has played to the Over in four of its last five games, while the Sun have come in above the number in eight of their last 10.

The trends don’t lie here. We have two teams that are clearly playing higher-scoring basketball in recent weeks, and now they will be facing off against one another. There’s no reason to think that both teams are about to buck the recent numbers they’ve been putting up, even if they played better defense and slower offense earlier in the season. The Over is the clear play here.

Mystics vs Sun betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Connecticut’s last six home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Sun.

Mystics vs Sun game info

Mystics vs Sun key injuries

Mystics: Natasha Cloud (G – Doubtful), Elena Delle Donne (F – Probable), Kristi Toliver (G – Out)

Sun: Dijonai Carrington (G – Questionable), Brionna Jones (F – Out)

Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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