Washington Mystics vs Dallas Wings Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Sabally Makes a Statement

Fortunes are always shifting in the WNBA, as yesterday's champion quickly becomes tomorrow’s roadkill. As often as not, it’s down to little more than injury luck. And it would seem that Lady Luck has utterly deserted the Washington Mystics, who remain down three starters with no end in sight heading into August.

Their opponent on Friday, July 28, the Dallas Wings, are a rising force in the W, currently the best answer to the hypothetical “Who is stopping the Las Vegas Aces from going undefeated in the Western Conference playoffs?”. But they’ve got a lot of work to do before all that. Putting their foot down on a beaten-up Mystics squad being the first order of business.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Mystics vs. Wings believe that Satou Sabally is in for another big night against this injury-riddled Washington team.

Mystics vs Wings best odds

Mystics vs Wings picks and predictions

After a strong season for her European club team Fenerbahçe, it was an open question as to whether Satou Sabally would be able to translate that improvement to the WNBA. With the season more than halfway over, Sabally has done that and then some. Sabally is a leading candidate for the league’s Most Improved Player award while averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, and overall efficiency. 

Traditionally, the Washington Mystics have been a tough cover for Satou, because of their combination of strong defensive guard play as well as the presence of Elena Delle Donne. Delle Donne is one of the few players in the W who can matchup with Sabally effectively one on one, combining the size of a WNBA big and the agility of a perimeter player. But with no Delle Donne to keep her in check (and even a depleted rotation beyond that) Satou has natural advantages against this depleted Mystics group.

Sabally went off against the Mystics in their previous game for this precise reason. She totaled 27 points on 9-14 from the field, 15 rebounds, and four assists. She also led the team in minutes at 36 minutes played, dominating the game in complete fashion. She got to the foul line relentlessly as well, going 7-10 from the charity stripe. I’m expecting more of the same from her tonight.

Satou has been somewhat of a streaky shooter this season, but she’s also consolidated some of her year-over-year gains in a real way. Though she’s had numerous games where she goes 1-3 from the perimeter, over her last 10 she’s still averaging 42.4% from deep. She’s forcing teams to close out on her aggressively, allowing her to do what she does best and attack the paint, draw two, or draw fouls against overmatched, out-of-position opponents. Given how deep the Mystics are drawing from their rotation right now, almost everyone who guards her is going to be a serious mismatch.

Sabally has underperformed in terms of straight-up points per game over her last 10 games, but four of those contests came against the Las Vegas Aces (twice), the New York Liberty, and Connecticut Sun, all of whom have defensive bigs or collective defensive talent that can make this hard on Satou in ways no other teams in the W can. Since the All-Star break, she’s averaging 34 total combined points, rebounds, and assists, making this my favorite bet for Friday’s game.

My best bet: Satou Sabally Over 29.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-130 at bet365)

Mystics vs Wings spread and Over/Under analysis

As bettors’ confidence in this limited version of the Mystics continues to fall, Friday’s spread has risen from -6.5 to -9 favoring the Wings at most sportsbooks. The Wings have largely taken care of business against the spread recently, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, including 4-1 at home as well as 4-1 in their last five against teams with a winning record (something the Mystics are clinging to now at 12-11).

While Washington’s only straight-up wins in this injury-begotten stretch of their season have come against the league’s bottom-feeding squads, it’s held up decently against the spread, going an even 4-4 ATS in July. But that’s just about all you can say in the Mystics’ favor right now. 

These two teams played back on July 2, with Delle Donne and Shakira Austin already out but before they lost Ariel Atkins as well. That they still lost by 17 points bodes poorly for the Mystics to cover at this number, as Atkins is an ace defender and one of the better shooters on the team outside of EDD. The Mystics are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight against winning teams, and 0-4 ATS on the road.

The total for today’s game opened at 163.5, which has since risen to as high as 165. Generating offense right now for the Mystics is a struggle, but they’ve consistently beaten the odds. The Over has cashed in eight of Washington’s last 11 games, despite the fact that they are missing arguably three of their four best scorers.

With so little shooting the Mystics have relied on outsized performances from Brittney Sykes and Natasha Cloud combined with a hot game from one of their usual bench players. That’s enough to hang with the Seattle Storms of the world, but the Wings are a versatile and connected defense. 

On the other side of the ball, it’s easy to see how the Wings could run up the score against the Mystics. Even if the Cloud can slow down Arike Ogunbowale, it’s hard to see what answers Washington will have for both Sabally and Natasha Howard. The Over has cashed in Dallas’ last four straight.

Mystics vs Wings betting trend to know

Wings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Wings.

Mystics vs Wings game info

Mystics vs Wings key injuries

Mystics: Elena Delle Donne F (Out), Ariel Atkins G (Out), Shakira Austin C (Out), Kristi Tolliver G (Out).
Wings: Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Diamond DeShields G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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