Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Points Come At a Premium

After a gritty performance last week to hand the Las Vegas Aces just their sixth loss of the season, the Washington Mystics will try to defy WNBA odds again in tonight’s rematch.

With five games to go in the regular season, Washington has boosted its playoff hopes with back-to-back wins, following up the 78-62 victory against the Aces with an 83-72 dub over the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday.

Despite setting a new WNBA single-season wins record, Vegas is still trying to lock up the No. 1 seed, with the New York Liberty on its heels. That gap got tighter after Las Vegas’ 94-85 loss in New York on Monday, despite A’Ja Wilson and Jackie Young combining for 47 points.

Check out my free Mystics vs. Aces WNBA picks and predictions to find out why I'm loving the Under in Thursday night's affair.

Mystics vs Aces best odds

Mystics vs Aces picks and predictions

Could the star-studded Las Vegas Aces team really be running out of gas before the postseason even starts? It’s unlikely, but Becky Hammon spoke this week about the fatigue factor and how she’s had to ‘overplay’ some of her stars. It’s probably just a mini slump, but it’s undeniable that the hosts have lacked some of their usual spark over the past week.

With Candace Parker sidelined, the Aces’ depth is being tested and the starters are logging heavy minutes. An erratic bench has been a challenge for Hammon to navigate — and that’s part of the reason that Young, Kelsey Plum, and Chelsea Gray are all in the Top 20 in minutes per game.

That’s all added up to some scoring struggles that put the Under very much in play tonight. These two teams combined for just 140 points in last week’s meeting, including a second quarter that featured 21 total points. While it’s hard to envision Las Vegas shooting 31% from the field again (21% from 3-point range), the Washington Mystics possess an underrated defense that’s only allowing 81 points a game.

The Mystics also did a solid job on Wilson last week (14 points on 4-for-12 shooting) after the Aces star torched Washington on the way to 40 points in their first meeting of the year. Las Vegas rebounded a little offensively against the Liberty on Monday, but still only got 7-for-27 shooting from the Plum-Gray duo. 

The Under has hit in the hosts’ last four games at Michelob ULTRA Arena, and that feels like an attractive bet here, with Vegas likely to dial back the intensity (and starter minutes) if it builds a big lead.

My best bet: Under 169.5 (-110 at bet365)

Mystics vs Aces spread and Over/Under analysis

With the Aces entering as 10.5-point favorites, there’s seemingly an expectation that Las Vegas will get a measure of revenge against Washington here. It’s easy to see why, with the Mystics limping to a 5-11 record on the road this year and going 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests.

But not so fast. The Aces haven’t covered the spread in any of their last five outings — perhaps with one eye on the playoff run ahead — and the Mystics are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Las Vegas has never lost three straight games in Hammon’s time as head coach, but the hosts have lost a little of its aura over the past few weeks.

Still, it’s tough to pick against the Aces’ 16-1 home record and Hammon’s team can’t afford another mishap in the race for homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.

While this Las Vegas offense is capable of blowing any Over/Under out of the water, there’s reason to pick a defense-first matchup tonight, as I’ve outlined above. Last week’s meeting was played on Washington’s terms, with the Mystics grinding out the victory despite 40% shooting.

While there’s balance in the visitors’ offense, with Elena Delle Donne and Brittney Sykes both posting 20+ points in games over the past week, they’ve fallen short of the 85-point mark in their last six games.

Mystics vs Aces betting trend to know

The Under has been a winner in five of Washington’s last six games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Aces.

Mystics vs Aces game info

Mystics vs Aces key injuries

Mystics: No injuries to report.
Aces: Candace Parker F (Out), Riquna Williams G (Out – Suspended).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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