One star returns while another may miss Sunday’s rematch between the Washington Mystics and the Seattle Storm.
Seattle is expected to have superstar scorer Jewell Loyd back in action after she missed Friday’s game between these teams due to a foot injury. On the other side, Washington is down its top star with Elena Delle Donne out.
The WNBA odds for today’s game look very different than Friday, in which the shorthanded Storm battled as 12.5-point underdogs but fell short, 73-66. With Loyd back and EDD MIA, the Mystics are set as -3.5 road chalk.
I dive into the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Mystics vs Storm on June 11.
Mystics vs Storm best odds
Mystics vs Storm picks and predictions
The status of Elena Delle Donne will have an impact on all markets for Sunday’s game, but one bet that holds solid potential with or without EDD involves the production from Washington Mystics center Shakira Austin.
Austin scored 15 points on 7-for-13 shooting and finished 1-for-2 from the foul line against the Seattle Storm on Friday, and has been a consistent offensive weapon for Washington in recent weeks.
The second-year product from Ole Miss has seen her minutes as well as field goal attempts tick up in recent games, and she’s a problem for opponents in the paint.
Austin is fourth in the WNBA in average points in the paint, putting up just shy of 11 per contest, and faces a Storm defense that has been gutted in the key (allowing a league-worst 40.3 PITP). Seattle sits second worst in defending centers, giving up an average of 24.5 points per game to the position.
Austin’s player projections are right around her scoring prop Sunday, with some spot on at 14.5, while my number is a tick higher at 14.9 points. That forecast is with Delle Donne in and playing her usual role in the offense. Should she sit or be limited due to the neck injury, those interior touches will find their way to Austin.
The oddsmakers are expecting a better offensive output in this game, with the Mystics’ team total climbing to 81.5 – 5.5 points higher than their season scoring mark and much better than Friday's 73-point performance. The Storm are not a great defensive team (allowing 85.7 points per game), and the pace of this meeting will be far faster than Friday with Jewell Loyd leading the charge for Seattle.
Given a higher-scoring game script and Austin’s high ceiling (especially if EDD is out), I’m taking the Over 14.5 points from Washington’s center this afternoon.
My best bet: Shakira Austin Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
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Mystics vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis
Given the difference in spread, it’s safe to say Loyd is one of the most valuable WNBA players to the spread, with that range set to -3.5 after EDD was labeled out. According to Storm head coach Noelle Quinn, Loyd participated in practice Saturday and says she’s fine after giving the franchise a scare with a foot injury.
Washington opened as short as a five-point road chalk with EDD as a question mark and Loyd back in action. Early movement had bumped this spread to Mystics -6, but the news of Delle Donne missing today's gave has swung the spread in Seattle's favor. Keep an eye on the line movement as the betting markets often know who’s in and out before any official announcement.
My WNBA power ratings produced a number a little lower than the market openers, with Washington laying -4.5 on the road Sunday with that number reflecting these teams at full strength. I’m not too high on the Mystics, and while Seattle does sit at the bottom of my ratings, I’m respecting its 4-1-1 record against the spread.
Friday’s game was an ugly affair as both team struggled to score. Seattle battled without their top scorer, shooting just 41% from the field and making only six of 21 shots from beyond the arc. Washington was even worse, going 6-for-22 from distance and finishing the game making 38% of its field goal attempts.
The Mystics are one of the better defensive teams in the WNBA, but their offense is steps behind so far in 2023. Washington sits 11th in offensive rating (93.8) and has failed to crack 80 points in four straight games despite playing some of the softer defenses in the league during this span.
That lack of offense to complement Washington’s defensive prowess (No. 1 in advanced rating) has burned bettors bad through the opening two months of action, with the Mystics failing to cover the spread in each of the six games since their season-opening statement win over New York. Washington owns a net rating of +2.3 while facing an average spread of -5.
As for the Storm, their 1-5 SU record doesn’t reflect the fight this team has shown against some the WNBA’s top-tier contenders. Seattle was steamrolled in the season opener by Las Vegas, but has been competitive for the most part in 2023.
Today’s total opened at 156 points, and climbed to 157 as of Sunday morning before dipping to 155 after the EDD news. That Over/Under opener was the exact closing number for Friday’s game in which these offenses struggled and the Storm was missing Loyd, who pumps out 28 points per game on 22 average field goal attempts.
Delle Donne doesn’t have as big as impact on the offensive output as Loyd (averaging 18.6 points) but has been transformative for Washington on the defensive end, with the team seeing noticeably tighter defense when she suited up last year.
The pace of Friday’s game (which played Under the 156-point total) was an extremely slow 94.2 rating, well below Washington’s average tempo (97.37) and much slower than Seattle likes to play, sitting fourth fastest in the WNBA (98.40). The Storm are 4-2 Over/Under on the season, while the Mystics own a 1-6 O/U count.
Mystics vs Storm betting trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in the Storm’s last 11 home games going back to last season. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mystics vs. Storm.
Mystics vs Storm game info
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 11, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Mystics vs Storm key injuries
Mystics: Elena Delle Donne (Out).
Storm: Jewell Loyd (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
