Wings vs Mercury Predictions, Picks, & Odds for Today’s WNBA Game

Today's WNBA matinees end with the Dallas Wings heading to the Phoenix Mercury in a rematch of a week ago. Phoenix won and covered then, as it should again today.

But there is a specific Dallas piece to doubt in our free WNBA picks, betting against Arike Ogunbowale in our Wings vs. Mercury predictions before tip at 3:30 ET on Wednesday, July 10.

Wings vs Mercury predictions

My best bet
Arike Ogunbowale Under 22.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

My analysis
Arike Ogunbowale continues to take more shots than anyone else in the league, over a shot more per game than WNBA MVP odds-on favorite A’ja Wilson. Not that those two should be in direct comparison — Wilson thrives in the paint while Ogunbowale takes nearly nine 3-pointers per game — but Ogunbowale’s true-shooting percentage is 9.9% worse than Wilson’s.

In other words, Ogunbowale not only continues to take more shots than anyone else in the WNBA, but she also continues to be perhaps the WNBA’s most inefficient prolific scorer. She may be averaging 23.1 points, but of the 22 players averaging more than 15 points per game, Ogunbowale has the second-lowest shooting percentage; her 36.6% just tenths better than fellow Notre Dame product Jewel Loyd’s 36.2%.

The Phoenix Mercury’s defensive rating ranks No. 10 in the last month, a cause for worry in this matchup, but the Dallas Wings’ offensive rating sits No. 10 in the same time span, a reflection of Ogunbowale’s repeated missed shots.

She has fallen short of this prop in three of her last four games, shooting 37.5% or worse in all four games.

This is not all Ogunbowale’s fault. She is effectively Dallas’s only offensive threat, but these are still all present realities, and ones that emphasize the value of doubting her to put up points right now.

Furthermore, Phoenix forces opponents to live behind the arc. Credit Brittney Griner for much of that emphasis. Opponents take 26.8 threes per game against the Mercury, the most in the WNBA by 2.6 attempts. Ogunbowale will gladly take those looks, chucking more threes than anyone else in the league. As might be expected, given her general inefficiency, she has gone just 9-of-32 (28.1%) in her last four games.

Wings vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)

Arike Ogunbowale Under 22.5 points

Arike Ogunbowale Over 3.5 made threes

Mercury moneyline

+1,255 at FanDuel

This is a counter-intuitive same-game parlay, pairing Ogunbowale’s Under in points with her Over on made threes, but it makes sense given Phoenix’s defensive focus. Ogunbowale could take a dozen 3-pointers today. If she shoots 33.3%, she would clear this 3-pointers prop and presumably be well on her way to topping her points prop.

But that would leave only eight or nine other shots, given Ogunbowale’s usual rate. Even if including her usual free throws (five made per game), she would need to make three of those 2-pointer attempts, and with Griner looming, that should not be assumed.

That kind of deep-reliant shooting will set up Dallas to lose, as tends to be the case with this current roster.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Wings vs Mercury odds

Wings vs Mercury live odds

Get the latest Wings vs Mercury WNBA odds for tonight.

Wings vs Mercury opening odds

• Spread: Dallas +8.5 (-110) | Phoenix -8.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dallas +320 | Phoenix -400
• Over/Under: Over 175 (-110) | Under 175 (-110)

Wings vs Mercury spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Mercury opened as 9-point favorites late on Monday before falling to -7 by the end of Tuesday, settling at -7.5 across the board on Wednesday morning.
  
  
• These two met a week ago with Phoenix as 5.5-point road favorites, winning by eight. A usual homecourt adjustment would have raised the spread to closer to -9 today.
  
  
• The total opened at 174.5 and fell to 173.5 late on Tuesday, toggling between 174 and 173 on Wednesday.

Wings vs Mercury trend

Dallas is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Mercury.

Wings vs Mercury game info

Wings vs Mercury latest injuries

Wings: Satou Sabally F (Out), Lou Lopez Senechal G (Out), Maddy Siegrist F (Out), Jaelyn Brown G (Out).
Mercury: Diana Taurasi G (Out), Charisma Osborne G (Out), Rebecca Allen G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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