The Connecticut Sun are entering Game 1 against the Dallas Wings in what has to be a sense of urgency and a real feeling that this could finally be their year. Over the last 24 seasons, the Sun have had a 55.8 winning percentage — the second best in the WNBA — with zero rings to show for it.
They enter this Thursday, August 18 opener as heavy favorites over the Wings — who defeated the Sun in two out of three meetings this season but are missing their team's most valuable player in Arike Ogunbowale. See why Dallas won’t lay down, but Connecticut should handle business with our Wings vs. Sun picks and predictions.
Wings vs Sun Game 1 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Lines opened Monday morning, hovering between -10 and -10.5 in favor of the Suns. That spread has slightly decreased to -9.5. The total opened up at 161.5 and has increased to 163.5 across all sportsbooks.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Wings vs Sun Game 1 predictions
Predictions made on 7/18/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wings vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Thursday, August 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV, ESPNU
Wings vs Sun series odds
Wings: +500
Sun: -750
Wings vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Wings: Arike Ogunbowale G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Probable), Isabelle Harrison F (Questionable).
Sun: Bria Hartley PG (Out), Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Over is 4-0 in Sun's last four overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sun.
Wings vs Sun Game 1 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
This matchup is very interesting, and while Connecticut is the favorite here, Dallas shouldn’t be overlooked in a high-variance situation. The new playoff format for the first round makes the possibility of an upset all the more likely. The first round is a best-of-three series, with the first two games hosted by the higher seed, and a possible Game 3 at the lower team’s home arena. Talk about pressure.
In short, should Dallas squeeze out a victory in Game 1 or 2, they will host the deciding game in front of their fans. Connecticut will come out swinging, looking to avoid a possible Game 3, but it won’t be easy. Dallas was very impressive down the stretch, going 7-3 in its final 10 games. Amongst those victories were a pair of impressive W’s that came in back-to-back games against the Chicago Sky and Las Vegas Aces — arguably the two best teams in the WNBA.
That said, Dallas will have a hard time defeating Connecticut in this series due to an absolutely crushing blow to their team when leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale went down with a recent injury. Her timeline doesn’t project her being available in this series, robbing the Wings of her 19.7 points per game (fourth in the league).
Connecticut has been one of the best teams this season (first in regular-season net rating), and although Dallas won the season series (due to several important factors), this is the playoffs, and the Sun know they need a consistent A-game. With the Wings dealing with a huge injury at the worst of times, they won’t be able to compete.
Prediction: Sun -9.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
While Dallas found success against the Sun this season, it’s a struggle to find what they do better game-to-game. Connecticut is an offensive juggernaut, ranking Top 3 in points, field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and offensive rating.
The Sun have been able to find so much success offensively due to their balanced attack, with five different players averaging double-digit points — meaning they have multiple ways to burn you and no obvious focal point on defense — which makes them tough to cover every night. Jonquel Jones is the reigning MVP, but she has taken on less of a load this year, with multiple players capable of running up the score.
The Wings have scored well even without Ogunbowale and will look to continue by leaning on Marina Mabrey, who has stepped to the challenge. The 5-foot-11 guard has been stellar, scoring double digits in her last seven games, including a 31-point explosion in a must-win game against the New York Liberty.
Mabrey knows how to score, and while the Sun have a Top-3 defensive rating, she scored 20 points against them earlier this season on 60% shooting. I believe, even without Ogunbowale, the points will come in bunches here.
Prediction: Over 163.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
Most people shy away from betting against the formidable Connecticut defense, but the first game of the playoffs always offers many surprises — look at last night's Liberty vs. Sky game.
Dallas shouldn’t win, but I don’t believe we’re in for a low-scoring matchup. With Ogunbowale out, many may wonder if Dallas will be able to score enough. They beat the Sky and Aces in her absence, scoring 83 points per game.
When a centerpiece of an offense is removed from the puzzle, it can confuse the opponent on how to game plan. Look for Mabrey to continue her hot steak and help push this game Over a total that’s depressed with Ogunbowale sitting.
Pick: Over 163.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
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