The first round of the WNBA playoffs has already delivered multiple shocking results and outstanding team performances. While some of the other contenders had a shaky first game out, the Connecticut Sun took care of business against the Dallas Wings in Game 1.
Dallas is going to have to dig deep to stave off a blowout being predicted by most sports books Sunday, August 21.
Our WNBA betting picks and predictions for Game 2 of Wings vs. Sun thinks Connecticut's diversity on both ends will once again prove too much for Dallas to handle.
Wings vs Sun Game 2 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Connecticut Sun have been holding steady as -11.5 point favorites at most books. The total has seen a small bump from 161.5 to 162.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Wings vs Sun Game 2 predictions
Predictions made on 8/31/2022 at 2:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Wings vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Sunday, August 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Wings vs Sun series odds
Wings: +1,000
Sun: -1,800
Wings vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Wings: Arike Ogunbowale G (Out).
Sun: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sun are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Wings vs. Sun.
Wings vs Sun Game 2 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
No single team saw their championship equity rise after the first batch of playoff games than the Connecticut Sun. It’s not that they won, they were expected to. It’s the way they simply bullied Dallas from start to finish on both ends, leading to a 93-68 route in Mohegan Sun.
Books are once again justifiably making the Sun huge favorites for Game 2. But what about their performance in Game 1 should guide bettors going into Sunday?
To me, it was two things. The way they defended in Game 1 was utterly spellbinding paired with how little success Dallas had guarding Connecticut's primary actions.
The Wings like to post up a lot and they also like to facilitate from the high post. The trouble with that is that they don’t have the kind of shooting to keep Alyssa Thomas or Jonquel Jones at bay. The Wings' pet actions just served to shrink the area of the court that the Sun have to be worried about on any given possession.
That led to a lot of forced passes into traffic, turnovers, and fast break points for Connecticut. It also resulted in a lot of contested twos, which outside of a shot clock violation, are the holy grail of defensive possessions.
By contrast, the Sun also like to post up, but they benefit from having DeWonna Bonner and numerous other plus shooters on the perimeter to space the floor. They then run additional actions so their post ups aren’t static.. They also mix in a healthy dose of Courtney Williams, coming off dribble hand offs on the wing and splashing mid-range jumpers.
They seek out guards on big switches and mercilessly attack off the dribble. They just have so many weapons and ways to win on both ends, as soon as Dallas plugged one hole, they sprang another leak that soon sank them.
Dallas fared no better playing out of pick and roll. The Sun showed them everything. They switched, they hard hedged, they soft hedged, they dropped, it was all personnel and context dependent.
When Connecticut was forced to switch, the Wings rarely managed to press their advantage in the resulting mismatch. But the Sun also didn’t soft switch, and they never switch with Courtney Williams in the action because she is one of the best guards at getting over screens in the “W”.
Connecticut can and did defend the pick and roll in every possible way, and it’s not formulaic. Its players know each other so well that it looks like a dance, one player hard hedges, the other follows. If there’s a switch, it’s called out. There’s never confusion.
People describe the best defense as akin to “playing on a string”, but the Sun were more like water that fills whatever vessel it’s poured into, shaping and reshaping themselves as needed. It was beautiful to watch and seems utterly replicable in Game 2.
When Connecticut played pick and roll, the Wings weren’t comfortable switching, but they also weren’t getting over screens with enough force — leaving the roller with a clear runway to the hoop. Dallas often found itself in the unenviable position of helping off the strong side corner one pass away — that’s an automatic wide open corner three, and as dispiriting as an outcome to that play as possible.
The Sun utterly neutralized the Dallas offense for the full 48 minutes and ran up the score on the other end. This line is sizable, but more than justified.
Prediction: Sun -11.5 (-110 at Betway)
Over/Under analysis
It’s always tough to back the Under when a team like the Sun show just how effortlessly they can score. The impressive part is that they left a lot on the table and still managed 93 points. The Wings shot more threes and took more free throws, and it didn’t matter one bit. Just like they have all year, the Sun lived in the paint.
But as we’ve gone over, their defense was even more impressive than their offense, and the numbers on this one are clear as day. The Wings struggle to score against stronger competition, and the Under is 8-3 in the Wings' last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. Conversely, Connecticut suffocates the offenses of all but the elite teams in the WNBA, causing the Under to go 9-1-1 in its last 11 against teams with a losing record.
Even at this modest number, those trends are too strong to ignore. I like the Under on Sunday.
Prediction: Under 162.5 (-110 at Betway)
Best bet
The Sun remind me of the 2014 San Antonio Spurs in some ways, which is the highest compliment I can pay to a basketball team. They’re so team-oriented, so smart, and shockingly consistent. They won every quarter of Game 1, and if not for a miracle halfcourt heave in the first, they would have won each quarter by six points or more. That’s total domination.
That domination is not a one off. They are a stunning 11-1 against the spread in their last 12 games, and as the line keeps growing larger and larger, they just keep covering. Eventually, the bookmakers will catch up, but nothing that happened in Game 1 makes me believe that will be in Game 2.
Even if the Dallas Wings benefit from the expected rubber band theory early on in Game 2, Connecticut has shown it will not be shaken. Right now the Connecticut Sun are the team to beat for the WNBA championship — and covering Sunday should be light work for them by comparison.
Pick: Sun -11.5 (-110 at Betway)
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