Alycia Baumgardner vs. Elhem Mekhaled face off for the undisputed junior lightweight title in a 10-round fight on the undercard of Amanda Serrano vs. Eriak Cruz this weekend from the Hulu Theater at Madison Square Garden.
Baumgardner is coming off her sensational win over rival Mikaela Mayer and hopes to become an undisputed champion at Mekhaled’s expense.
Here are our picks and predictions for Baumgardner vs. Mekhaled from New York.
Alycia Baumgardner vs Elhem Mekhaled odds
| Method of victory | Alycia Baumgardner | Elhem Mekhaled |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -850 | +520 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +280 | +1,600 |
| Win by points or decision | -175 | +750 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of January 31, 2023.
Alycia Baumgardner vs Elhem Mekhaled betting predictions
Picks made on January 31. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Alycia Baumgardner vs Elhem Mekhaled betting preview
With Baumgardner constantly failing to land a fight with Hyun Mi Choi, the WBA has offered to make this fight with Mekhaled for the vacant title. This is coming after Mekhaled lost a clear decision to Delphine Persoon last October. Boxing is strange like that.
Baumgardner is coming off a win over hated rival Mayer last October and is looking to move on with her career before revisiting a rematch of her razor-thin victory. The aggressive puncher is a world-class fighter with an underrated skill set, and she’s performed well on the biggest of stages.
She is 13-1 with 7 KOs and has plenty to support her case as one of the top female pound-for-pound fighters in boxing. The athleticism and grit Baumgardner shows make her a tough out for anyone, and she can put her punches together to do some serious damage. Overall, the 28-year-old has an average fight time of 4.71 rounds and is undefeated since 2018.
Mekhaled was presumably on her way to face Baumgardner anyway, but now she gets a chance to compete for a world title despite losing her last fight. The French boxer is a disciplined tactician who held her own in a massive step up in class against Persoon. She has to hope she can rise to the occasion to dethrone a surging champion.
At 15-1 with 3 KOs, Mekhaled is a fighter who works the clock and uses a measured approach to win her fights. She defends well and should be able to avoid falling into Baumgardner’s traps for some time, but will need to find a way to steal the pace from the champion. Her average fight time is 6.25 rounds.
Baumgardner can start fast and finish strong, but she tends to be wild with her offense. Mayer was able to reign the fight in when Baumgardner tried to regain some of her steam, but Mekhaled isn’t as diligent of a boxer as the ex-champ. She may have to use every trick she knows to make it to the final bell.
Alycia Baumgardner vs Elhem Mekhaled boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Baumgardner ML
Mekhaled isn’t a bad boxer by any means. It's just that there is usually a major divide between the elite fighters and everyone else in women’s boxing. Baumgardner has established herself as an elite fighter, but she can fall in love with her power a bit and gets sloppy. While she turned in a mature, complete performance against Mayer, she may not be as fired up against a meandering opponent despite the undisputed title being up for grabs.
At the same time, Mekhaled’s movement and defense can make the champ work. Persoon is a really good fighter, and she struggled to outpace the French pugilist even though she was considered to be just as out of her depth as she is now. All Mekhaled needs to do is remained focused and keep her hands up.
We don’t see an avenue here for an upset, but this might be more competitive than the odds suggest. We’re going with Baumgardner all the same.
Prediction: Baumgardner moneyline (-700 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Baumgardner by decision
While Baumgardner has that scary KO win over Terri Harper on her highlight reel, Harper was only the second fighter she stopped with a positive record. Her aggression and fast hands will help her score the heavier shots, but Baumgardner doesn’t have real stopping power at this stage of the game.
She’ll be busier, coming forward and outclassing her opponent every which way. What she won’t do is score a stoppage, as Mekhaled possesses decent defense and good movement. This means that she can keep the fight at a distance and won’t frequently engage the champion.
We’ll take Baumgardner by points at -175.
Prediction: Baumgardner by decision (-175 at DraftKings)
