David Benavidez vs. David Morrell Jr. takes place this Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas with the winner of the bout between these two undefeated stars poised to challenge for the undisputed light heavyweight title in 2025.
Morrell has been chasing Benavidez for some time, and he might be sorry he did when the two finally square off. Boxing odds have Benavidez a -190 favorite, and Morrell is a +155 underdog.
Here are my best Benavidez vs. Morrell predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, February 1.
Benavidez vs Morrell prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Benavidez moneyline (-190 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Benavidez moneyline (-190 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
You've got to hand it to David Benavidez and David Morrell Jr. for making this fight happen. Both were in prime positions to challenge for the undisputed light heavyweight title this year, yet they’re willing to risk it all in a high-stakes clash.
These two have been circling each other at super middleweight for years, and now, oddly enough, they’re fighting at light heavyweight — both coming off uneven performances in their divisional debuts.
Benavidez is a two-time super middleweight champion and one of the best fighters in the world. His versatile offensive style makes him a difficult opponent to beat.
He can overwhelm opponents with volume and pressure, or he can use his fast hands to land precise blows from the outside. While he wasn’t at his best against Oleksandr Gvozdyk in his last fight due to a broken hand in training camp, he dominated a former light heavyweight champion in his division debut and has steamrolled the competition at super middleweight.
The only reason he’s taking this fight is that Saul “Canelo” Alvarez keeps finding ways to avoid him.
Morrell, the prodigious Cuban talent, is known for his technical prowess and pinpoint accuracy. Unlike many Cuban fighters who come up through the esteemed amateur ranks, Morrell fights with a professional style, utilizing his excellent fundamentals and being unafraid to let his hands go.
While he’s made up for lost time after turning pro in his mid-20s, this fight represents a significant step up in class — it's the first time he’s facing a former world champion at the top of his game.
Oddsmakers have made this a closer fight than it likely will be. While Morrell might have some success early on, Benavidez has been tested at a higher level for a much longer period. I expect him to cut off the ring and walk Morrell down, as he did against Caleb Plant.
It’ll be a competitive fight, but Benavidez is simply the better fighter, which is why he’s my pick.
Best best analysis
Betting on Benavidez at longer than -200 is a solid deal. His constant activity and forward pressure make for better scoring opportunities with the judges. Additionally, his durable chin allows him to take Morrell’s best shots while staying in the pocket to outwork him.
At these odds, the best bet is to take Benavidez to win.
David Benavidez vs David Morrell Jr. odds
| Method of victory | David Benavidez | David Morrell Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -190 | +155 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +320 | +600 |
| Win by points or decision | +125 | +275 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 1-30.
David Benavidez vs David Morrell Jr. tale of the tape
| Benavidez | Morrell | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 27 |
| 6-foot-2 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Light Heavyweight | Weight Class | Light Heavyweight |
| 74.5 inches | Reach | 78.5 inches |
| 29-0 | Record | 11-0 |
| 24 | Wins by KO | 9 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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