Two heavyweights who have revived their careers and pushed themselves back to the top of the mountain face off when Daniel Dubois defends his IBF heavyweight title against former champion Joseph Parker at the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh.
My Dubois vs. Parker predictions and betting picks see an upset in the works when these two face off on Saturday, February 22.
Dubois vs Parker prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Parker moneyline (+235 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Parker by decision (+400 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
The rebuild of Daniel Dubois was seemingly complete when he shocked the world and demolished Anthony Joshua last year to win the IBF heavyweight title.
However, the road doesn’t get any easier for Dubois, as he now faces a resurgent Joseph Parker, who has been on a remarkable comeback run of his own.
While Dubois enters as the significant favorite and the current champion, Parker’s recent form has arguably been more impressive.
Although knocking out Joshua was a major statement win, Dubois struggled early to score late stoppages against Jarrell Miller and Filip Hrgovic to earn that opportunity.
Before that, he was methodically broken down by Oleksandr Usyk, ultimately succumbing to a jab knockout in eight rounds. Parker’s style resembles Usyk’s more than Dubois’ other recent opponents, which makes this matchup particularly interesting.
Switching to Andy Lee in his corner and the added muscle mass have transformed Parker, giving him both more size to work with and increased confidence.
He outclassed Deontay Wilder over 12 rounds — showing no fear of Wilder’s legendary knockout power — and later survived two knockdowns against Zhilei Zhang, still managing to outbox him for a clear decision victory.
While Dubois is an explosive athlete, Parker is riding the momentum of beating two of the division’s biggest punchers and is the more technically sound and experienced fighter.
As the fight progresses, the advantage shifts toward Parker. While Dubois has the power to potentially flatten Parker early, Parker has the tools to disrupt Dubois' rhythm with his strong jab, movement, and ability to get inside.
We’ve seen Dubois struggle when he's thrown off his game, often taking several rounds to adjust, but he'll be dangerous early on when he’s at his most confident and will throw bombs that will test Parker’s resolve.
Dubois sometimes relies too heavily on his power, a tendency Parker can exploit with his durability and movement. I believe the challenger will be too much for Dubois to handle and will pull off the upset to win the title.
Best best analysis
We’ve seen Dubois physically and mentally break down against Usyk and Joe Joyce, but Parker doesn’t possess the same level of stopping power or precision with his shots as those two.
Instead, Parker will likely control the fight behind a stiff jab, neutralize Dubois by tying him up inside, and use his veteran experience to stay a step ahead.
I’m picking Parker to win by decision as my best bet.
Daniel Dubois vs Joseph Parker odds
| Method of victory | Daniel Dubois | Joseph Parker |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -300 | +235 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -140 | +750 |
| Win by points or decision | +380 | +400 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 2-10.
Daniel Dubois vs Joseph Parker tale of the tape
| Dubois | Parker | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-5 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 78 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 22-2 | Record | 35-3 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 25 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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