Gervonta Davis vs Lamont Roach Jr. Predictions, Picks & Odds for March 1

Gervonta Davis makes his 2025 debut facing off against junior lightweight champion Lamont Roach Jr. in our premier boxing betting attraction this Saturday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY. 

As Davis looks to tighten his iron grip on the lightweight division, Roach looks to play spoiler as Davis’ professional fire seems to be waning. Boxing odds have Davis as a -1600 favorite, and Roach is a +900 underdog. 

Here are my best Davis vs. Roach predictions and free betting picks for March 1. 

Davis vs Roach prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Davis moneyline (-1600 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to be won in Rounds 7-9 (+220 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis
Gervonta Davis remains one of boxing's premier attractions and one of the best fighters in the lightweight division, yet one thing he has yet to secure is a win over a top-tier rival in his division. 

Boxing is a complicated sport, and logical fights are often the most difficult to make, which is why Davis isn’t facing the likes of Shakur Stevenson or Vasiliy Lomachenko. Instead, Davis faces Lamont Roach Jr., who is moving up the scales for a shot at immortality.

Roach has improved tremendously since his upset loss to Jamel Herring back in 2019, culminating in his split-decision title win over Hector Garcia last year. He’s a quick-footed boxer with solid technique, but he lacks notable punching power.

For Roach to stand a chance, he’ll need to stay on the outside for all 12 rounds, using sharp counters and tying Davis up on the inside to avoid his fight-ending power. This means Roach will have to fight a near-perfect bout, as Davis can chop him down with the first clean shot he lands.

While Davis has shown he can do it all, he’s known for being a slow starter. He often gives away early rounds as he studies his opponents, lulling them into a false sense of security.

This pattern was evident in his last fight against Frank Martin, where Martin found some early success before wilting under Davis' relentless pressure. Davis eventually stepped on the gas in the eighth round, delivering a debilitating knockout.

His athleticism, power, and fight IQ make him one of the most complete fighters in the sport today.

A potential wild card in this fight is Davis' mindset. In recent months, he has appeared more subdued than usual and even expressed a desire to leave the sport. This suggests he might be looking for an exit, and such thoughts could affect his motivation, especially in smaller fights like this one that are harder to get excited about.

However, Roach has a similar issue, as he also starts slow and tends to fight conservatively, largely because he lacks the power to deter opponents or keep them at bay. Against Davis, that approach is dangerous — even if Davis is disinterested or distracted. Once "Tank" gets warmed up, Roach is likely to find himself in deep trouble.

This fight will likely follow the typical pattern of Davis’ recent fights. Roach may have some early success, landing a few counters and staying elusive, but eventually, Davis will close the distance and break him down. Expect Davis to impose his will by the middle rounds and secure a stoppage.

Best best analysis
Davis tends to stop his opponents past the midway point of the fight, and with Roach’s lack of punching power or tenacity, picking the fight to end between rounds 7 and 9 is a solid bet at +220. 

Roach should be able to survive into the middle rounds before Davis closes the show.

Gervonta Davis vs Lamont Roach Jr. odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 3-1.

Gervonta Davis vs Lamont Roach Jr. tale of the tape

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