William Zepeda nearly saw his championship aspirations go up in smoke when Tevin Farmer pulled out a vintage performance to fall short on the scorecards. These two are facing off again in our premier boxing attraction of the weekend, and we’ll see how Zepeda improves after the gut check from their November clash.
Boxing odds heavily favor Zepeda at -750, and former champion Farmer is in a familiar position as a +460 underdog. Here are my best free betting picks and Zepeda vs. Farmer predictions from Cancun.
Zepeda vs Farmer prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Zepeda moneyline (-750 at FanDuel)
- My best bet: Fight will go the distance (-106 at FanDuel)
Fight analysis
Sometimes, a really good fighter can have a really bad night, and it looks even worse when it's against someone with an awkward, slow-paced style. That’s what we saw in the first fight between these two. William Zepeda looked completely tuned out, even getting dropped by the light-hitting Tevin Farmer in the fourth round, but still battled through to secure a tight split-decision win.
The performance didn’t do Zepeda any favors, with Zepeda maintaining that a hand injury he suffered during the fight contributed to his near-miss.
When he’s on his game, Zepeda is a proficient pressure fighter who overwhelms his opponents with activity, as he can throw close to 100 punches per round and doesn’t sacrifice power. Zepeda has 27 knockouts, and when he gets his opponents hurt, he can draw a finish with his combination punching or just drown his opponents with his work rate.
Up until the last fight, Zepeda had surged to the top, though doubts linger on how he’ll perform against opponents that can slow him down or disrupt his momentum.
Disruption is what Farmer is all about. The former junior lightweight champion from Philadelphia doesn’t bring the traditional Philly grit into the ring, instead relying on tactical awareness and finding ways to slow the fight down to his pace.
He doesn’t have the most entertaining or engaging style, and it has cost him close fights many times during his career. He’s getting older and hasn’t looked good since losing his title to Joseph Diaz in 2020.
The injured hand and youthful arrogance likely led to Zepeda nearly getting his train derailed by the wily veteran, but we shouldn’t expect the same outcome this time around. Farmer couldn’t capitalize on the knockdown and was outworked by Zepeda on the back end of the fight, visibly tired and weary from Zepeda’s body shots.
This fight, being scheduled for 12 rounds, will also favor Zepeda’s volume. With Zepeda’s hand healed up and with a better idea of what to expect, it’s hard to imagine the smaller, older, and more conservative Farmer improving on the last fight.
We should see a better version of Zepeda in the rematch. There might be moments where he’ll struggle with Farmer’s formidable defense and tactics, but Farmer won’t be able to keep up with the volume. Zepeda is the pick.
Best best analysis
Farmer hasn’t been stopped since his 12th professional fight and he remains a solid defender. The extra rounds will give Zepeda a chance to aim for a stoppage, though I don’t feel this is a likely outcome in the slightest.
The best bet to make for this fight is that it goes the full distance.
William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer odds
| Method of victory | William Zepeda | Tevin Farmer |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -750 | +460 |
| Win by KO/TKO | -115 | +1500 |
| Win by points or decision | +155 | +550 |
| Draw | +1900 | +1900 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 3-29.
William Zepeda vs Tevin Farmer tale of the tape
| Zepeda | Farmer | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 34 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 32-0 | Record | 33-7-1 |
| 27 | Wins by KO | 8 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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