Jack Catterall and Arnold Barboza Jr. face off in a final eliminator for the WBO junior welterweight title this Saturday at the Co-Op Arena in Manchester, England.
Catterall is one step away from a title shot he’s long overdue for, but Barboza is looking to make the most of it in the biggest fight of his career.
Find out why my Catterall vs. Barboza Jr. predictions and free betting picks have the favorite coming out on top.
Catterall vs Barboza Jr. prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Catterall moneyline (-255 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Catterall to win by decision (-140 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
The uncrowned junior welterweight king continues to prove that even without a belt, he belongs at the top of the division. Since his controversial decision loss to Josh Taylor in 2022, Catterall has won four straight, including a rematch victory over Taylor. His last three wins have come against former world champions, most notably a dominant decision over Regis Prograis last October. He’s a slick operator who outmaneuvers opponents with tricky footwork and fast hands.
While he isn’t a devastating puncher, he keeps his opponents honest and can hold his own in exchanges when necessary.
He faces Arnold Barboza Jr., an undefeated contender who, despite his record, has failed to capture the imagination of fight fans with his development. Barboza is coming off the biggest win of his career against former unified champion Jose Ramirez last November, though that victory had more to do with Ramirez looking like a faded fighter than anything spectacular from Barboza. Like Catterall, Barboza is most effective when he can box from the outside and counter, but at 31, he remains an unproven prospect only now stepping up his level of opposition.
A big concern for Barboza is his shaky performance against Sean McComb last March, where he looked listless and was fortunate to escape with a win in what many considered one of 2024’s worst decisions. The Ramirez victory did not erase the bad taste left from that fight, especially as Ramirez fought like he showed up to get paid and Barboza should have put a beating on him instead of tapping him with a jab on the way to a decision. Catterall has been competing at a much higher level, and while this fight between two counter-punchers may be ugly to watch and difficult to score, the edge will go to whoever forces the other into leading the exchanges.
Barboza has already shown a tendency to fall into that trap, and I expect it to happen again. Catterall’s superior speed and high-level experience will be the deciding factors. The fact that this is Barboza’s first 12-round fight raises further questions about how much confidence his handlers have in him, especially given his lengthy tenure as an undefeated fighter hovering around the top ten but never getting a marquee opportunity until now.
I’m picking Catterall to maintain his momentum and hand Barboza his first loss.
Best best analysis
Catterall and Barboza are reactive punchers with below-average power. Both rely heavily on countering and rarely deviate from their game plans, meaning this could be a slow-paced, technical fight that lacks fireworks. However, Catterall’s faster hands and superior experience against elite competition give him the edge in what could be a frustrating bout to watch.
My best bet is that Catterall wins by a wide decision.
Jack Catterall vs Arnold Barboza Jr. odds
| Method of victory | Jack Catterall | Arnold Barboza Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -255 | +200 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +500 | +900 |
| Win by points or decision | -140 | +300 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 2-14.
Jack Catterall vs Arnold Barboza Jr. tale of the tape
| Catterall | Barboza Jr. | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 33 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 30-1 | Record | 31-0 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 11 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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