Mikaela Mayer and Sandy Ryan face off in a rematch for the welterweight title, and this fight is going to be just as close and fun as their September brawl that went down to the wire.
Betting odds have this as even money with both fighters coming in at -110, and my Mayer vs. Ryan predictions expect the champ to retain her title on March 29.
Mayer vs Ryan prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Mayer moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Fight to go the distance (-800 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Mayer finally won a close fight when she edged out Ryan on the scorecards last September.
The fight was competitive enough, and there was enough controversy generated from a pre-fight incident where Ryan claimed a paint can was thrown at her on her way to the arena, that these two are running it back.
In the early part of the bout, Mayer’s hand speed and combination punching allowed her to build an early lead, and she had to hang on as Ryan came on particularly strong in the later rounds. A draw would have been warranted, but Mayer getting the decision wasn’t a bad call.
The win made her a two-division champion, and Mayer has fought some of the best active fighters in the sport. She is undersized at welterweight, which became apparent in the latter half of the first fight, as she simply couldn’t land anything that gave Ryan a reason to back off.
Still, she is tremendously skilled and very fast. There shouldn’t be any major change in her strategy for the rematch, because standing her ground and trading punches with the younger ex-champion is a recipe for disaster.
While I don’t doubt she can replicate her previous approach, Mayer is 34 years old, fighting at the heaviest weight of her career, and coming off a grueling battle.
Ultimately, it’s up to Ryan to make the necessary adjustments. Had the first fight been a 12-round bout instead of the usual 10, she likely would have won a decision, as the momentum had swung her way after she finally cut off the ring and stayed on Mayer.
Mayer even said post-fight Ryan was the strongest fighter she’d ever faced due to her sheer size. The problem was Ryan couldn’t impose that strength until Mayer began to slow down, and in a 10-round fight with two-minute rounds, you can’t afford to give up early rounds just to get settled.
Because of that, I have to favor Mayer in the rematch, as I don’t think Ryan can consistently deal with her footwork early on. All Mayer needs to do is limit the exchanges and stay mobile, and that should once again be the difference maker. This will be a very close fight that could go either way, and while Mayer is the pick, I’m backing her with caution.
Best best analysis
This is a hard fight to pick, but one thing is certain: we will not be seeing a knockout. There is not enough to suggest one fighter will outpace the other to make a confident pick, so the best pick here will be betting the fight goes the full distance and using it as a parlay pick for the rest of your weekend betting.
Mikaela Mayer vs Sandy Ryan odds
| Method of victory | Mikaela Mayer | Sandy Ryan |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -110 | -110 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +1200 | +800 |
| Win by points or decision | +115 | +130 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 3-29.
Mikaela Mayer vs Sandy Ryan tale of the tape
| Mayer | Ryan | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-9 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 20-2 | Record | 7-2-1 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 3 |
Not intended for use in MA.
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