Vitor Belfort vs. Ronaldo Souza is scheduled for six rounds in the heavyweight division on the Gamebred Boxing 4 undercard this weekend from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.
Belfort gets the rematch he couldn’t have in the octagon, whereas Souza hopes to find new professional success in boxing.
Boxing odds have Belfort as a big favorite at -500. Souza is a decided +350 underdog.
Here are our picks and predictions for Belfort vs. Souza on April 1.
Vitor Belfort vs Ronaldo Souza odds
| Method of victory | Vitor Belfort | Ronaldo Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -500 | -350 |
| Win by KO/TKO | OTB | OTB |
| Win by points or decision | OTB | OTB |
| Draw | OTB | OTB |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of March 29, 2023.
Vitor Belfort vs Ronaldo Souza betting predictions
Picks made on March 29. Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Vitor Belfort vs Ronaldo Souza betting preview
When Belfort and Souza first fought at UFC 198, Souza took Belfort out with a first-round finish via ground and pound. Their rematch comes seven years later, and Souza will be without his weapons of choice.
Belfort was tied to face Oscar De La Hoya last year in a boxing event, but that fell through and he faced Evander Holyfield instead. He predictably took the 58-year-old former champion out inside one round. Even during his MMA heyday, Belfort was best as a striker, so his transition to boxing was never expected to be a tough one.
The 46-year-old Belfort is a southpaw who had 18 knockout finishes in MMA, and is 2-0 as a boxer with both wins coming by knockout. He hasn’t fought since the Holyfield debacle, though he looked loose and comfortable after retiring from active competition in 2018.
Souza saw his time in MMA come to an end shortly after the Belfort fight. He went 2-6, and a four-fight losing streak resulted in his retirement in 2021. During that time, Souza was stopped twice by Robert Whittaker and Kevin Holland, and they were devastating knockouts. Not known for his striking, Souza will need to demonstrate mastery of a skill he wasn’t proficient with to go 2-0 against Belfort.
Souza wasn’t ever afraid to let his hands go in the octagon. While he’s slowed down a bit, he’s still younger than Belfort and stopped actively competing in 2021 to coach BJJ. The previous win over Belfort should give him a psychological advantage, and will also help prepare him on how to formulate his game plan minus takedowns.
Belfort’s recent involvement in boxing might be his biggest advantage. Souza just recently stepping away from active competition suggests he might be the fresher fighter. Either way, this could end up a decent scrap.
Vitor Belfort vs Ronaldo Souza boxing prediction and best bet
Prediction: Belfort ML
Neither fighter is going to move the needle in the realm of the sweet science, but Belfort’s boxing was a cornerstone of his offense during his heyday. He’s the bigger puncher and is acclimated to the sport’s demand with the Holyfield fight and an aborted match with Hasim Rahman Jr. last year. He was always a strong striker, coming forward and throwing every shot with conviction.
His overall style translates better in a boxing ring than Souza’s. While Souza wasn’t exclusively a grappler, it was what he did best. The Brazilian never fared well against strikers in the late stages of his career, and he doesn’t have the firepower to force Belfort back.
Belfort should get his revenge seven years in the making with a win here.
Prediction: Belfort moneyline (-500 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Belfort ML
Belfort should get the win due to his boxing background and Souza’s poor form over the last few years. Four of Souza’s losses in his career came by knockout, and his striking defense took a sharp dive over the course of his final fights.
With no other options but the moneyline at this point, we’re sticking with it.
Prediction: Belfort moneyline (-500 at DraftKings)
