Deontay Wilder vs Zhilei Zhang Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Wilder's Time is Up

The two biggest punchers in the heavyweight division face off tonight when Deontay Wilder goes toe-to-toe Zhilei Zhang from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Wilder is likely facing his last chance to get his career back on track, whereas Zhang sees Wilder as a potential final obstacle to a future mega fight.

Boxing odds have Zhang as a  -150 favorite and Wilder is a +125 underdog. Here are my free betting picks and Wilder vs. Zhang predictions.

Wilder vs Zhang prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Zhilei Zhang moneyline (-150 at BetMGM)
  
  
• My best bet
  Zhilei Zhang to win in Rounds 1-6 (+230 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis

It's been a rapid, unpleasant decline for former heavyweight champion Deontay Wilder. After suffering back-to-back knockout losses to Tyson Fury that mentally broke him, Wilder scored a quick win over the badly faded Robert Helenius before getting beaten from pillar to post by Joseph Parker last December.

Wilder looked terrible that night as if he had no idea what he was doing in there and couldn’t get anything to work. While Wilder is now 38, the truth is that he’s always been a one-dimensional fighter with poor fundamentals, and it’s hard to ignore that his championship reign was basically a who’s who of heavyweight nobodies before Fury exposed him.

He’s chasing paydays — with the winner of this fight likely to face Anthony Joshua in the fall — and that mentality won't work against another huge puncher with legitimate boxing skills who's still fighting like he has something to prove.

Zhang may be older at 41 and coming off a loss to Parker, but their situations couldn’t be more different. On two occasions, Zhang dropped Parker to the mat and had Parker fighting on the back foot the entire fight. While Parker could exploit his low output and questionable conditioning, he never dared to stand up to Zhang as he did to Wilder.

We’ve seen Zhang keep up with better fighters than Wilder while also displaying a solid chin, blunt power, and strong fundamentals. He doesn’t just barrel forward and swing for the fences. There’s a skillful approach behind his offense, and though he doesn’t do anything special from a technical perspective, it enhances his power because he doesn’t need specific circumstances to apply it.

Zhang will carry that confidence and heavy-fisted attack into the ring, and once Wilder sees that Zhang isn’t going anywhere and isn’t scared of him, the fight will be over. There's always the threat that Wilder could land first and close up shop, but Big Bang Zhang is the pick.

Pick: Zhilei Zhang moneyline (-150 at BetMGM)

Best best analysis

With Wilder essentially adopting the style of his former opponent turned trainer, Malik Scott, he’s fighting against his better nature, which is to throw out a big right hand and hope it hits in favor of a more reserved style. Even if we transplanted the pre-Fury version of Wilder against Zhang, it’s likely he wouldn’t know what to do when he popped Zhang with that shot and Zhang kept coming.

Though Wilder’s decline has been recently confirmed, there’s an argument to be made that he hasn’t won a round aside from those where he scored knockdowns since the first Fury fight. Zhang isn’t going to walk up to Wilder with his hands behind his back and his chin right up in the air. He'll ease forward behind his thudding jab, make Wilder feel the size advantage in the clinch, then unload his big shots when he’s up against the ropes.

Wilder’s likely to try and draw the fight out past the middle rounds to tire Zhang out, but without the head movement and mobility that Parker utilized. He’ll poke out a jab, hoping it will be good enough, but won’t be. Expect Zhang to detonate on Wilder, scoring a knockout inside the first six rounds.

Pick: Zhilei Zhang to win in Rounds 1-6 (+230 at DraftKings) 

Deontay Wilder vs Zhilei Zhang odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-1.

Deontay Wilder vs Zhilei Zhang tale of the tape

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