Week 6 in the CFL kicks off on Thursday night with a marquee matchup between the Toronto Argonauts and the Montreal Alouettes.
The Als torched the Argos through the air two weeks ago and my CFL picks are betting on another big performance from quarterback Cody Fajardo.
Here are my best free Argonauts vs. Alouettes predictions for July 11.
Argonauts vs Alouettes prediction
My best bet
Cody Fajardo Over 290.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Montreal Alouettes quarterback Cody Fajardo was named Grey Cup MVP last season but it was their elite defense that spearheaded their championship run. However, the veteran QB has been the primary reason the Als are off to a 5-0 start this year.
Fajardo has completed a league-high 77.3% of his passes for 1,574 yards through five weeks and he has the second-best odds to be named MOP. He's coming off a 374-yard performance against the Stamps and he threw for 284 yards against the Toronto Argonauts in Week 4 with backup Caleb Evans adding another 49.
The Toronto Argonauts had the best pass rush and secondary in the CFL last year but lost multiple starters on their line and secondary in free agency. Tunde Adeleke was signed to help soften the dropoff in the secondary but he's been injured and the depleted line will also be without its two best pass rushers, Folarin Orimolade and Jake Ceresna this week.
With so many departures and injuries to key players, Toronto's pass defense has struggled. They are last in the league in opponent passer rating (117.1) and opponent completion percentage (74.6%) while ranking second-last in passing yards allowed per game (307.5).
Another reason I like Fajardo to put up plenty of yards against the Argos stop unit is that their run defense has been rock solid. They are holding opponents to a league-low 3.3 yards per rush attempt and if they limit the Als on the ground, Fajardo will be even more likely to attack downfield.
Argonauts vs Alouettes same-game parlay (SGP)
Cody Fajardo Over 293.5 passing yards
Alouettes team total Over 28.5
Tyson Philpot Over 87.5 receiving yards
If your book doesn't have CFL player props, I also strongly recommend playing the Over on Montreal's team total. The Als have put up at least 30 points in each of their last three games and the Argos are second-last in the league with 30.8 points per game allowed.
It also helps that inexperienced Argos QB Cameron Dukes had his worst game as a pro last week, throwing four interceptions. If Toronto continues to struggle with giveaways it's even more likely that the Als will get good field position and eclipse their team total.
Tyson Philpot has emerged as a star in his third year in the league. The national wideout leads the CFL with 40 catches and is second with 564 yards. Philpot has racked up 90+ yards in four of five games this season and he should be able to burn this vulnerable Toronto secondary deep.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Argonauts vs Alouettes odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes live odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes opening odds
- Spread: Toronto +6.5 | Montreal -6.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +240 | Montreal -300
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Argonauts vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Als mounted a fourth-quarter comeback to win 30-26 last week and improve their record to 5-0. That was just the third time in their last 14 games that they didn't cover the spread.
- The Argos lost 30-23 against Saskatchewan last Thursday to drop to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the year.
- The Als beat the Argos 30-20 at BMO Field in Week 4. Montreal controlled the contest and it took a last-minute TD from Toronto to make the game appear closer than it was.
- Montreal's defense is riddled with injuries with All-Star safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy doubtful for Week 6, two other starting DBs also on the IL, and edge rusher Shawn Lemon suspended.
Argonauts vs Alouettes trend
The Over is 7-1 in Toronto's last eight games. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Alouettes.
Argonauts vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Alouettes key injuries
Argonauts: Tunde Adekele CB (Out), Jake Ceresna DE (Out), Folarin Orimolade DE (Out), Tommy Nield WR (Out), David Ungerer III WR (Out), Quincy Mauger DB (Out), Dejon Brissett WR (Out), Darius Ciraco OL (Out)
Alouettes: Marc-Antoine Dequoy S (Doubtful), Shawn Lemon DE (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out), Wes Sutton DB (Out), Tyler Snead SB (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Argonauts vs Alouettes weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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