Two of the hottest teams in the CFL face off on Friday night at Tim Hortons Field when the Hamilton Tiger-Cats host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
This is a classic matchup between a high-flying offense and a dominant defense and my Blue Bombers vs. Tiger-Cats predictions are betting on defense to prevail.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this Week 18 clash on October 4.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats prediction
My best bet
Under 50.5 (-115 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats lead the CFL in passing yards (323.5) and first downs (326) while ranking second in touchdowns (43). Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (233.6), first downs (265) and touchdowns (28).
It can be difficult to predict what happens when a seemingly unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Ultimately, I'm leaning toward a lower-scoring contest between squads that have upped their focus and intensity over the last couple of months.
The Ticats pass the ball at the highest rate in the league but turnovers killed them earlier in the year so expect a conservative approach from their offense against a ball-hawking Bombers secondary. Look for the Ticats to run more than usual as they try to take advantage of a banged-up Winnipeg defensive front that surrenders 5.5 yards per carry.
Likewise, the Bombers will continue leaning on running back Brady Oliveira, who has been the focal point of their offense. Winnipeg has struggled to move the ball through the air due to an injury-riddled WR corps but Oliveira leads the CFL with 1,107 rushing yards and the Tabbies also allow 5.5 yards per rush attempt.
Hamilton's defense has allowed the second-fewest completions of 30+ yards (16) and Winnipeg's defense also does an excellent job of preventing big plays. Expect both offenses to take safe chunk plays underneath, run the ball, and try to control the clock, which will result in this contest going below the total.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 50.5
Zach Collaros Under 275.5 pass yards
Bo Levi Mitchell Under 282.5 pass yards
The only game where the Bombers didn't cover over the last two months came against the Ticats in Week 12, when they scored a last-minute TD to win 26-23. Both quarterbacks struggled in that contest with Bo Levi Mitchell completing just 14 of 28 passes for 220 yards and Collaros going 18-for-36 for 177 yards with three picks.
Collaros threw for 432 yards against Edmonton's awful secondary last week but he had thrown for fewer than 240 yards in each of his previous four games. The Ticats have a strong secondary that matches up well against a WR group missing Dalton Schoen and Drew Wolitarsky with All-Star slotback Nic Demski listed as questionable.
Mitchell's passing numbers will be limited by a Bombers defense that leads the league in opponent pass efficiency (85.8).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats odds
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats live odds
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats opening odds
- Spread: Winnipeg -4.5 (-105) | Hamilton +4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Winnipeg -200 | Hamilton +165
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Ticats are on a four-game winning streak and have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five contests.
- The Bombers are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS over their last seven but the lone game they didn't cover during that span came against Hamilton.
- Winnipeg is last in the CFL with just two big play returns while Hamilton has the second-fewest big play returns (4).
- Just two weeks ago, Mitchell was a +10,000 longshot to win the MOP Award but he's now third on the board at +1,100 while Oliveira is second at -105.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats trend
The Under is 6-1 in Winnipeg's last seven games on the road. Find more CFL betting trends for Blue Bombers vs. Tiger-Cats.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats game info
| Location: | Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton, ON |
| Date: | Friday, 10-4-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats key injuries
Blue Bombers: Nic Demski SB (Questionable), Devin Adams DT (Questionable), Adam Bighill LB (Out), Jamal Parker DB (Out), Cam Lawson DT (Out), Gabe Wallace OL (Out), Dalton Schoen WR (Out), Drew Wolitarsky WR (Out).
Tiger-Cats: Greg Bell RB (Doubtful), Shemar Bridges WR (Out), Nick Usher DE (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Blue Bombers vs Tiger-Cats weather
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