Week 17 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a showdown between the Montreal Alouettes and Toronto Argonauts.
The Als would clinch first place in the East Division with a win here, and my Alouettes vs. Argonauts predictions expect them to get it.
Here are my best free CFL picks for this marquee matchup on September 28.
Alouettes vs Argonauts prediction
My best bet
Alouettes -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Toronto Argonauts are 5-2 at home and should be highly motivated now that Hamilton is just two games behind them (with the tie-breaker) in the playoff race. That said, it's tough to turn down this Montreal Alouettes squad at anything close to a pick'em. The Als have been the cream of the crop in the league and travel extremely well, going 6-0-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread on the road.
Both of these teams have explosive aerial attacks led by star quarterbacks. The Argos have last year's Most Outstanding Player in Chad Kelly while the Als have this season's MOP favorite in Cody Fajardo. That said, only one of these teams defends the pass at a high level, and it isn't the home side.
The Argos are second-last in the league in opponent pass efficiency (105.3) and passing yards allowed per game (295.5), while surrendering a league-high 25 completions of 30+ yards. Despite getting back a pair of key defenders last week, Toronto allowed 362 passing yards, 30 first downs, and 33 points at home against the Tiger-Cats.
On the other hand, Montreal's stifling pass defense has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt (7.15) and completions of 30+ yards (7), while having the second-lowest opponent pass efficiency (87.5).
The Als are balanced and well-coached and have shown the ability to claw back from deficits and win close contests. I haven't seen that level of toughness and resiliency from the Argos this year, so I'm fading them on this short spread.
Alouettes vs Argonauts same-game parlay (SGP)
Alouettes -1.5
Walter Fletcher Under 51.5 rushing yards
Chad Kelly Under 280.5 passing yards
The Als might be running the league but they haven't been running the ball. Walter Fletcher leads the team with a modest 45 rushing yards per game and he's averaging just 6.8 rush attempts per game since Week 4. He won't see enough carries to eclipse this number against an Argos front that holds foes to a league-low 76.0 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.
The last time Kelly faced the Alouettes, he was picked off four times and limited to 246 passing yards in last year's East Division final. Argos head coach Ryan Dinwiddie might opt for a more conservative gameplan from Kelly this time in order to limit turnovers. That should mean fewer passes and more runs as they try to take advantage of a vulnerable Montreal run defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Alouettes vs Argonauts odds
Alouettes vs Argonauts live odds
Alouettes vs Argonauts opening odds
- Spread: Montreal -2 | Toronto +2
- Moneyline: Montreal -135 | Toronto +115
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Alouettes vs Argonauts spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Argonauts lost to the Ticats on a last-second field goal last week and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The Alouettes beat the Redblacks 24-12 last week, and they have the league's best record at 11-2-1 while going 8-6 ATS.
- The Als beat the Argos 30-20 at BMO Field in Week 4, but lost 38-17 as 7-point home faves in Montreal just two weeks later.
- Toronto has the highest-graded offensive line in the league according to PFF, but will be missing star left tackle Isiah Cage.
Alouettes vs Argonauts trend
The Als are 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record while the Argos are 2-5 ATS against winning teams. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Argonauts.
Alouettes vs Argonauts game info
| Location: | BMO Field, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Argonauts key injuries
Alouettes: Austin Mack WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Reggie Stubblefield DB (Out), David Cote K (Out).
Argonauts: Isiah Cage OT (Out), Darius Ciraco C (Out), Gregor Mackeller G (Out), Jonathan Jones LB (Out), Quincy Mauger DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Alouettes vs Argonauts weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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