The BC Lions are a colossal mess, and Nathan Rourke has proven to be nothing more than a band-aid for a seriously flawed team that hasn't won a game since mid-July.
With the Ottawa Redblacks rolling into Victoria as winners of six in a row, my Redblacks vs. Lions predictions detail why the wrong team is favored in Week 13.
Find out more in my CFL picks for Saturday, August 31.
Redblacks vs Lions prediction
My best bet
Redblacks +2.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
It's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Those words rang true when the BC Lions were named the host city for the Grey Cup back in 2011, as the Lions' 0-5 start followed up with an 11-2 second-half surge that propelled BC into the Grey Cup, winning it all in front of over 50,000 fans at BC Place.
This time, however, everything is operating in the inverse. Following a 5-1 start to 2024 that saw Vernon Adams Jr. put up video game numbers, the Leos have fallen apart at the seams, entering Week 13 as losers of their last five.
The addition of Nathan Rourke following his release from the NFL hasn't proven to be much benefit, as the quarterback turned the ball over three times in BC's 34-27 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks last week. With Adams Jr. expected to return to the active roster after being sidelined for three games, head coach Rick Campbell may need to reevaluate the starting QB position if Rourke struggles for a third consecutive game.
The biggest problems for BC don't end with the offense, however. Defensively, the Leos' secondary has been burned all season long, allowing a league-worst 74.4% completion percentage and 111.8 passer rating to opposing QBs.
Last week saw Dru Brown throw for 390 yards and three touchdowns against BC, and I expect the Redblacks offense to continue to churn out production from a supporting cast that features dynamic running back Ryquel Armstead, former Atlanta Falcons wideout Justin Hardy, and CFL All-Star WR Dominique Rhymes.
Although the Lions are the home team this time around, Saturday's game is being played at Royal Athletic Park in Victoria, which carries a capacity of less than 15,000. With the Redblacks boasting a defense that allows a league-low 6.4 yards per play and Rourke still ironing out kinks north of the border, taking the Redblacks at +2.5 is an easy choice.
Redblacks vs Lions same-game parlay (SGP)
Redblacks +2.5
Alexander Hollins Under 4.5 receptions
William Stanback Over 68.5 rushing yards
Despite starting the season on a tear, Lions wideout Alexander Hollins has struggled to find his rhythm with Rourke under center. He was targeted just five times in Week 11 against Winnipeg and only twice in BC's loss to Ottawa. With Justin McInnis remaining WR No. 1 and the return of Keon Hatcher eating into looks, fade Hollins' receptions total on Saturday.
Meanwhile, William Stanback has seen an uptick in production over the last month, having eclipsed 85+ rushing yards in three consecutive contests. Stanback is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season, and I'm backing the Leos RB to keep it going in Week 13.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Redblacks vs Lions odds
Redblacks vs Lions live odds
Redblacks vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Ottawa +3.5 (-120) | BC -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +135 | BC -160
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Redblacks vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, while BC is 0-5 ATS in its last five contests.
- The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
- The Over is 5-2 in the Lions' last seven contests vs. a team with a winning record.
Redblacks vs Lions trend
Ottawa is 6-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record this season. Find more CFL betting trends for Redblacks vs. Lions.
Redblacks vs Lions game info
| Location: | Royal Athletic Park, Victoria, BC |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-31-2024 |
| Kick-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Redblacks vs Lions key injuries
Redblacks: Lucas Cormier LB (Out), Jovan Santos-Knox LB (Out), Jaelon Acklin WR (Out), Bralon Addison WR (Out).
Lions: Vernon Adams QB (Questionable), Ben Haldik LB (Out), Jordan Perryman DB (Out), Joshua Archibald DL (Out), Cristophe Beaulieu DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
Redblacks vs Lions weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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