The Hamilton Tiger-Cats head to Regina for a showdown against the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday. It will be an emotional game at Mosaic Stadium as the Riders commemorate the 10-year anniversary of their last Grey Cup win and celebrate the life of legendary running back George Reed, who passed away earlier this week.
Saskatchewan fans will hope that adds fuel to the fire for a Roughriders team looking to snap a four-game losing streak. CFL odds opened with the Riders as 4.5-point favorites before slimming to -3.5 for this Week 18 clash. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Tiger-Cats vs. Roughriders on October 7.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders best odds
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders picks and predictions
Both of these teams have been disappointments this season, but the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have been the far more competitive team lately. They have a 4-2 record both straight up and against the spread in their last six games, with both of their losses during that span coming against the dominant Toronto Argonauts.
Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have dropped four in a row and have the league's worst defense, along with a subpar passing game under Jake Dolegala. The Riders have surrendered a league-high 30.5 points per game, with that number ballooning to 34.6 ppg over their last nine contests. Saskatchewan players simply haven't been playing with enough energy lately and coach Craig Dickenson hinted at lineup changes earlier this week as he desperately looks for a spark.
It's honestly tough to see why the Riders are favored by more than a field goal in this spot. The biggest reasons for that spread are likely the uncertainty around the quarterback position for the Ticats, questions about motivation since they've already wrapped up a playoff spot, and home-field advantage being factored in for the Riders.
However, I think all of those points are a bit overstated.
Hamilton has sent quarterback Taylor Powell back to the bench after he played well for them, but the rookie wasn't exactly a gamebreaker and Bo Levi Mitchell and Matthew Shiltz are far more experienced and finally healthy. Mitchell will start and while he struggled at the start of the season before breaking his leg, he's a two-time MOP and Grey Cup winner that won't be intimidated by the atmosphere at Mosaic.
As far as motivation for Hamilton goes, this is a team that needs to enter the postseason with some momentum. While the Ticats have already clinched a playoff berth, home-field advantage in the first round against Montreal is still a possibility.
When it comes to home-field advantage for the Riders, they haven't benefitted from playing at Mosaic lately. Saskatchewan is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home while Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its previous five contests on the road.
With the Ticats catching 3.5 points this week, grab them on the right side of that key number.
My best bet: Tiger-Cats +3.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Riders at -4.5 but has shortened to -3.5, while the O/U has stayed steady at 49.5. The Riders are on pace for the final playoff spot but can't afford a collapse as they are only two wins ahead of the Stampeders, Elks, and Redblacks with three games remaining.
The Riders have gone 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games and they were fortunate to cover last week as 8.5-point pups when they scored 15 points in garbage time during the fourth quarter. Those losses have largely been due to a defense that has been in a complete freefall. Even in that upset victory against the BC Lions last month, Saskatchewan was torched for 499 total yards.
The Ticats are coming off a 22-15 win on the road against the Stamps to improve to 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six games.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders trend to know
The Tiger-Cats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record while the Roughriders are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven contests against teams below .500. Find more CFL betting trends for Tiger-Cats vs. Roughriders.
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Saturday, October 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Tiger-Cats vs Roughriders key injuries
Tiger-Cats: Ted Laurent DT (Out), Tunde Adeleke DB (Out), Joel Figueroa LT (Out), Kyle Wilson LB (Out), Duke Williams WR (Out).
Roughriders: Brandon Council OT (Questionable), Jeremy Clark DB (Out), Trevor Harris QB (Out), Jerald Hawkins OT (Out), Miles Brown DT (Out), Rolan Milligan DB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
