It wasn't long ago that Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm went toe-to-toe to decide the BMW Championship, then traded impressive performances at the TOUR Championship. Now, PGA Tour betting odds have them as the men to beat in the first major of the 2020-21 season.
As the field prepares to tee it up at the always-challenging Winged Foot Golf Club in New York, Johnson and Rahm are the only players to come in with U.S. Open odds lower than +1,000 to prevail. But don't be fooled: there is no shortage of contenders for the title on a course that could be the most punishing these participants have seen all year.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our golf picks, predictions and best bets for the U.S. Open, from September 17-20.
US Open betting stats that matter
Winged Foot wasn't always like this: at the 1997 PGA Championship, Davis Love III captured the title at an impressive 11-under for the tournament. But nine years (and many punishing modifications) later, nobody fared better than Geoff Ogilvy's 5-over 72-hole score at the 2006 U.S. Open. This nearly 7,500-yard par-70 course is going to ruin a whole of scorecards this week.
As for the stats that matter, none will top SG: Approach. With frustratingly-narrow fairways, some of the deepest rough on tour and greens that run 13 on the Stimpmeter and can best be described as "delightfully hellish," the players who leave themselves the shortest possible birdie putts on a consistent basis will have a big advantage. SG: Around the Green also plays this week.
US Open outright winner bets
DJ gets the nod in oddsmakers' eyes, listed at +800 to win his second career major championship. Rahm is right behind him at +900, while Justin Thomas occupies the third spot at +1,200. Xander Schauffele (+1,400), Rory McIlroy (+1,600) and Collin Morikawa (+1,600) make up the bottom of the first tier, while Tiger Woods odds see him as a +5,000 underdog to add to his major title haul.
Who will win the U.S. Open? Here's our best guess:
Justin Thomas (+1,200)
Thomas has been a fixture on the major championship leaderboard in recent years with six Top-20 finishes over his previous 11 appearances (including his only major victory at the 2017 PGA Championship).
Thomas led the PGA Tour in SG: Approach last season, and isn't awful off the tee either (22nd in SG: Off the Tee). He also averaged over 300 yards per drive, but might want to take a little off in order to improve his accuracy – but if anyone is capable of getting out of that Winged Foot salad, it's him.
Webb Simpson (+2,500)
If we were talking daily fantasy in this space, Simpson would likely be our choice for top chalk play. It's a bit confounding that his odds are this low when you consider his pedigree: He's coming off a sixth-place showing in SG: Approach, posted eight Top-10 results in 14 tournaments last season and had a strong weekend en route to a T12 at the TOUR Championship.
His all-around game suits this course about as well as anyone's can, so expect him to mount a charge for his second U.S. Open crown.
US Open matchup predictions
Tony Finau Over Adam Scott (-120)
Finau might not be the best golfer never to win a major, but he's near the top of the list. With his T4 at the PGA Championship, Finau now has six Top-10 finishes in his last nine major tournaments, displaying one of the best all-around skill sets on tour (including a T21 in SG: Approach last season).
Scott has been no slouch himself, but with Finau playing extraordinary golf for an extended period, it's hard to pass him up in a 72-hole match-play prop against anyone other than the Top 6 tourney faves.
Collin Morikawa Over Xander Schauffele (+110)
It's a bit absurd to take anyone facing Schauffele in a major match play prop – but if anyone can knock off one of the top golfers in the world at a tidy profit, it's Morikawa.
He has been one of the best players since the restart, with a pair of wins (including the PGA Championship), a second-place finish and a solo sixth at the TOUR Championship. Schauffele has six Top-10 results in his 12 career major appearances and was T2 at the TOUR Championship, but we like Morikawa at these odds.
US Open prop bets
Tiger Woods to Miss Cut (+162)
"I think Winged Foot is right up there next to Oakmont and Carnoustie as far as just sheer difficulty without even doing anything to the course."
This comes from Woods himself, who knows a thing or two about difficult courses. Woods isn't the player he once was, and this version isn't going to have an easy time muscling 220-yard approach shots out of ankle-deep rough.
It kills us to say it, but taking Woods to miss the cut in New York might be one of the safest bets you'll make all weekend.
Winning Score: 280 and Over (-120)
Never mind: THIS is the safest bet you'll make all weekend. Consider that 5-over won the last major event hosted at Winged Foot, which was the highest score for a winning major champion in more than 30 years up to that point.
The course will play even longer this time around, and it's a safe bet that the greens will be even more brutal than in 2005, especially over the weekend. Nobody is going to break par across 72 holes at Winged Foot – so take the 280 and Over, and enjoy the show.
US Open betting card
- Justin Thomas (+1,200)
- Webb Simpson (+2,500)
- Tony Finau Over Adam Scott (-120)
- Collin Morikawa Over Xander Schauffele (+110)
- Tiger Woods to Miss Cut (+162)
- Winning Score: 280 and Over (-120)
Where can I bet on PGA golf?
With PGA betting growing in popularity, pretty much all online sportsbooks will offer golf odds for the U.S. Open. Check out our top listings page for the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what PGA Tour odds they have available.
