The NFL betting board has two matchups on Monday Night Football in Week 6, with the originally-scheduled Thursday night matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills moved to Monday.
The Bills saw their Week 5 game against Tennessee shift to Tuesday due to COVID-19 concerns. That didn't affect the Titans who handed the Bills their first loss of the year by hammering them 42-16.
The Chiefs are also coming off the first defeat of the season, losing 40-32 against the Raiders.
Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for the Chiefs vs. Bills on Monday, October 19 with kickoff at 5 p.m. ET.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Orchard Park is calling for a 65 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 50s with winds blowing at 5 mph for this 5 p.m. ET kickoff Monday night. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Chiefs: Anthony Hitchens LB (Questionable), Anthony Sherman FB (Out), Sammy Watkins WR (Out), Kelechi Osemele G (Out), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Out), Damien Williams RB (Out).
Bills: Matt Milano LB (Questionable), Tre'davious White CB (Questionable), John Brown WR (Probable), Zack Moss RB (Probable), Dawson Knox TE (Out), Jon Feliciano G (Questionable), Levi Wallace CB (Out), E.J. Gaines CB (Out), Star Lotulelei DT (Out), Tremaine Edmunds LB (Questionable)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bills.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Both of these teams will be looking to bounce back from losses after disappointing performances in Week 5. The Bills' 26-point beatdown was particularly troubling as they showed plenty of flaws for a team that started off the year 4-0.
Buffalo's pass defense has been terrible this season, with opposing quarterbacks completing 68.4 percent of their passes for 262.3 yards per game against the Bills. And keep in mind that they held Sam Darnold and the punchless Jets offense to just 202 yards through the air in Week 1, so most of that damage has come recently.
The Bills will be without starting cornerback Levi Wallace for the second game in a row while All-Pro corner Tre'davious White is listed as questionable as well. That's awful news against a Chiefs aerial attack led by Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
The Bills tend to win versus the teams they should beat and lose against the teams they are expected to lose against. They've gone 1-3-1 ATS in their previous five games as an underdog while the Chiefs are 9-2-1 ATS in the previous 12 contests as a favorite. With Kansas City also 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games on Monday, expect the Chiefs to win and cover.
PREDICTION: Kansas City -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Over/Under of 57.5 is the biggest total of the week with good reason. Both squads are coming off terrible defensive performances, with the Bills giving up 42 points to Tennessee and the Chiefs surrendering 40 points and 490 total yards to Las Vegas.
They've also both been two of the most explosive offenses in the league, with the Chiefs third in the NFL in yards per game 407.2, and the Bills fifth with 401.8. Although a high-powered offense is no surprise for the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, Buffalo's attack has made huge strides in 2020.
Quarterback Josh Allen is looking like an early-season MVP candidate, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns, while adding another three scores on the ground. While offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs has provided him with a dangerous weapon out wide.
We're leaning towards the Over 57.5, but it might be worth waiting to see just how much rainfall will be in the cards for Monday's contest before making this play.
PREDICTION: Over 57.5 (-110)
First Quarter Pick
The Bills are the third-highest scoring first-quarter team in the league, averaging 8.4 points per game in the first 15 minutes. They also rank ninth in the league in red-zone scoring percentage and have come away with a touchdown on 10 of 11 red-zone scoring opportunities over the last three games.
Through five games this season, Buffalo has scored 18 touchdowns while settling for just five field goals, and with their ability to score quickly there's plenty of betting value on them to get on the scoreboard first in this contest with a TD.
PREDICTION: First score method - Buffalo touchdown (+230)
Chiefs vs Bills betting card
- Kansas City -4 (-110)
- Over 57.5 (-110)
- First score method - Buffalo touchdown (+230)
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