It really doesn’t feel like college football betting until the Alabama Crimson Tide are involved, but that gets remedied Saturday as they look to begin their march back to the College Football Playoff, after missing out for the first time since its inception, when they visit the Missouri Tigers.
It’s crazy to think an 11-2 season can leave a bad taste in your mouth, but that’s exactly how Bama feels heading into this season — and bettors can use that to their advantage.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best picks and predictions for Alabama vs. Missouri on Saturday, September 26, with kickoff at 7:00 ET.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Missouri Tigers betting preview
Weather
It should be a beautiful night for football in Missouri. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-70s for kickoff. There is also expected to be an 8 mph wind gusting towards the northeast endzone. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Alabama: Alex Leatherwood OL (Probable).
Missouri: Daniel Parker Jr. TE (Probable), Damon Hazelton WR (Probable), Elijah Young RB (Questionable), Simi Bakare RB (Questionable), Brendan Scales TE (Out), Sci Martin Jr. DL (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Missouri was as close to an auto-fade as there was in the SEC last season, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference games. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Alabama vs. Missouri.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Betting Alabama's first game of the season joins the likes of rubbing Howard’s Rock, Ralphie’s Run and The Best Damn Band in the Land when it comes to college football traditions.
Anyone who is a regular reader of my column, the Triple Option, knows where I’m going here: even as nearly a four-touchdown favorite, we’re going to be backing Alabama in this one. And let me tell you why.
No one, and I mean literally no one, gets his team more prepared to start a season than Nick Saban. As a result, Alabama is undefeated straight up and 11-1 ATS since Saban took over the reins of the program back in 2007. And for the most part, these games haven’t been close.
Bama has averaged 40.7 points per game in those opening contests, with an average margin of victory of 29.7 points per game. That includes last year’s 42-3 thumping of Duke.
This year’s opening opponent is Missouri, a program going through a big transition year. It is the first year at the helm for head coach Eliah Drinkwitz, formerly of Appalachian State. He’ll be trying to work in his new offense, while basically rebuilding an offensive line and he still hasn’t named a starting quarterback (it will be either TCU transfer Shawn Robinson or freshman Connor Bazelak).
The Crimson Tide are not a team you “ease into” or “try some things out” against. They’ve got a competent quarterback in Mac Jones, who is working with some deadly targets on the outside, while Najee Harris and Brian Robinson will rumble behind another offensive line full of potential All-Americans. Oh, and they sound extremely motivated. Roll Tide.
PREDICTION: Alabama -27 (-112)
Over/Under pick
The scary part about Alabama is that last season it ranked 17th in total yards allowed (318.8) and points allowed per game (18.8) and that was considered an off-year. That had a lot to do with injuries, but the Tide get a huge boost with LBs Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillon both returning after knee injuries last season. Plus, the defensive line gets most of its pieces back to create what could be a fearsome Bama front seven. Then there is corner Patrick Surtain II, who might just eliminate half the field for the Tide’s opponents this season.
This number seems to be right on the mark, and Drinkwitz will do his best to get senior running back Larry Rountree III the ball in space, but I’m betting the Bama defense comes out with something to prove and limits the Tigers scoring. If they do, it will be hard for this one to go Over.
PREDICTION: Under 56 (-110)
First Half Spread Pick
Alabama is a team a lot of people like to bet on the first-half spread, because it has a history of getting off to great starts. And as Bama usually has to deal with large spreads, there is a fear of the Crimson Tide letting off the gas once they’ve built a big lead. Bama averaged 26.8 first-half points per game against FBS opponents last season, while allowing just 11.3.
While the offense is obviously down guys like Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, they still have a treasure trove of weapons, namely Harris, Robinson Jr., Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. And the defense has a chance to be better. There’s no reason to think Bama won’t get off to a strong start here as well.
PREDICTION: Alabama -16.5 First Half (-123)
Alabama vs Missouri betting card
- Alabama -27 (-112)
- Under 56 (-110)
- Alabama -16.5 First Half (-123)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NCAA Alabama vs. Missouri picks, you could win $55.52 on a $10 bet?
Use our NCAA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on college football?
You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NCAA football point spreads, Over/Under totals, derivative bets and even prop plays as well. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.
