The 1-8 Purdue Boilermakers are playing host to the 8-1 Penn State Nittany Lions, who are looking to stay in the College Football Playoff picture, at Ross-Ade Stadium. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. ET, and CBS will air the game live.
Find out why my Penn State vs. Purdue predictions see the Nittany Lions running all over the Boilermakers defense as I serve up my best college football picks for Week 12 on Saturday, November 16.
Penn State vs Purdue prediction and best bet
Who will win Penn State vs Purdue?
Penn State is too close to reaching the playoffs to let one slip away against a bad team. There will be no upset alert this Saturday in West Lafayette.
The Nittany Lions are going to take their 30th-ranked rushing offense against the 118th-ranked rushing defense and dominate the ground game and time of possession. Give me Penn State 45-6.
My best bet
Kaytron Allen Over 74.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers' lone win this season came in the season opener against FCS Indiana State. They won that game 49-0. Since then, Purdue has lost eight straight games by an average of 28.4 points per game. They have also allowed 43.1 points per game in that eight-game losing streak.
The Purdue defense has a ton of issues, but one of the biggest issues may be their run defense. They allow 199.9 rushing yards per contest, which ranks 118th nationally. Every single opponent, even Indiana State, has rushed for 100 or more yards against the Boilermakers this season. Three opponents have run for 200 or more yards and two for 300 or more yards.
The Penn State Nittany Lions rank 30th in the country with 196.2 rushing yards per game. They will be without Nicholas Singleton in this game, who has 543 rushing yards on the season on 88 carries. That will leave Kaytron Allen as the feature back in this contest. Allen has 634 yards on 133 carries this season.
Singleton also missed the UCLA game earlier this season. In that game, Allen had 21 carries for 78 yards. While he only had 3.7 yards per carry in that contest, he still surpassed the number we are getting here just on volume. UCLA also has the seventh-ranked rushing defense in the country, a huge step up in talent from this Purdue defense.
Allen may not get 20+ carries since this game is going to be a blowout, but he is unlikely to need that against this terrible running defense. If Allen even runs at his normal 4.8 yards per carry, he will only need 16 carries to hit this number. Without Singleton, the combination of volume and talent mismatch makes this my favorite bet of this game.
Penn State vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Penn State team total Over 39.5
Kaytron Allen first touchdown
Harrison Wallace III anytime touchdown
My best bet is not available to use in a same-game parlay as of Friday afternoon, so I’ll pivot to the Penn State team total. Purdue has allowed 40+ points to four different teams, including Ohio State last week.
I will also add in two touchdown scorers for the Nittany Lions.
I will start with the first touchdown scorer and pick Allen. A rushing touchdown has been the first touchdown scored in five consecutive Purdue games and six of the last eight.
Finally, I will throw in a Harrison Wallace III anytime touchdown. He is the second-leading receiver behind Tyler Warren and will be a solid option to find the end zone for a third time this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs Purdue odds
Penn State vs Purdue live odds
Penn State vs Purdue opening odds
- Penn State vs. Purdue spread: Purdue +28.5
- Penn State vs. Purdue moneyline: Penn State -10,000, Purdue +2,000
- Penn State vs. Purdue Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Penn State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread has remained basically the same from opening at either 28 or 28.5. As of Friday afternoon, 69% of the bets and 82% of the money is on Penn State to cover.
- The total has also remained basically the same from opening at 50.5. As of Friday afternoon, 70% of the bets and 67% of the money is on the Over.
- The Over has hit in three of the last four matchups between these two teams.
Penn State vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue has only covered the spread in two of its last 11 games. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Purdue.
Penn State vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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