Kirby Smart had no way of knowing Kansas was already working on an upset of BYU. If he had, the Georgia head coach may have been a bit calmer in his postgame interview with ESPN after dispatching No. 7 Tennessee, 31-17.
If that final score was not decisive enough, then realize the No. 12 Bulldogs held the Volunteers scoreless in the second half, turning a tie ballgame at halftime into a dominant win. Tennessee gained just 117 yards after halftime on 3.77 yards per play.
As he has in each of the previous three seasons, Smart solved Josh Heupel’s offense, now holding the Volunteers to an average of 14.25 points in these four meetings. When not facing Georgia, Tennessee under Heupel has averaged 40.5 points per game.
So one would have thought Smart would be calm and confident after that win. Instead, he was immediately criticizing the College Football Playoff selection committee that left the Bulldogs on the outside looking-in of last week’s bracket release.
“I don’t know what they look for,” Smart said. “I really don’t know what they’re looking for anymore. I would welcome anyone in that committee to come down to this league and play in this environment.”
Calm down, Kirby. You’re back in the bracket, as you always were going to be. Kansas’s upset of BYU simply provided added certainty to that spot.
College football Week 12 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to each week’s College Football Playoff bracket reveal. The season does not end until Dec. 7.
Some things can be learned from the bracket, of course. Last week we learned No. 8 Notre Dame will be ahead of No. 10 Alabama and No. 11 Mississippi at the end of the regular season as long as the Irish keep winning.
Beating LSU and Georgia last week, respectively, was not enough to propel the two-loss SEC teams ahead of Notre Dame, and now the Irish have a more intimidating schedule down the homestretch.
But beyond that kind of ordering, little can be learned from the bracket when there are games remaining to be played. Smart’s frustration about being ranked at No. 12 — and then leapfrogged by the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, No. 13 Boise State — openly overlooked the reality that beating Tennessee should propel Georgia well back into the mix, and not just because the Volunteers will now fall behind the Bulldogs.
Coaches use those rankings to motivate their teams, but it is all nonsense.
The only rankings that matter are released Dec. 8.
Douglas' advice: Do not make any bets on futures or games because of the committee’s release on Tuesday. Personally, I do not even watch it.
Do overreact to LSU’s loss to Florida. Brian Kelly might fall to .500 in his third season in Baton Rouge.
In the last three weeks, three mobile quarterbacks have ravaged the LSU Tigers’ defense, turning a 6-1 season into a 6-4 sinking ship, all Playoff hopes dashed and the worst possibly yet to come.
That may sound hyperbolic, but recognize what those three quarterbacks have done to LSU in the last three weeks. Marcel Reed and Jalen Milroe combined for 269 rushing yards and seven scores on just 17 carries. That worry left LSU’s defense exposed to Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway’s arm, never mind that his balky hamstring probably would have limited him in the ground game.
The Tigers’ defense is a problem. It has been the primary reason this season with Playoff aspirations have now become one dwindling toward a 6-6 record.
No, really, 6-6 might happen.
Vanderbilt visits next week. Diego Pavia has had a week to recover a bit, and no one in the country is more dangerous outside of the pocket than the Commodores’ quarterback. It is unlikely Vanderbilt wins, but it it is plausible.
And then to close the season, LSU hosts Oklahoma, as the Sooners likely will be seeking bowl eligibility. A 6-6 LSUrecord is possible.
Douglas' advice: This number should be near two touchdowns, but a quit factor needs to be pondered in Baton Rouge. If you see Vanderbilt as a double-digit underdog, take the ‘Dores. If nothing else, Pavia will be a threat for a backdoor cover. More likely, his want-to will shine a light on LSU’s ambivalence.
Do not overreact to Kennesaw State’s reasonable showing, a 23-17 loss to Sam Houston State, the week after head coach Brian Bohannon was fired.
The Kennesaw State Owls do not have the roster depth to withstand the last couple weeks of this month, not after nearly 20 players already entered the transfer portal after Bohannon’s abrupt and debated firing, including three starting offensive linemen.
Kennesaw State played Sam Houston State well, and Bohannon deserves some credit for that.
Dude…Brian Bohannon is still here pumping up everyone of his players despite undeservingly losing his job.
— Joey Stone I Sloppy Joe (@JoeyStone_8) November 16, 2024
This is sick and awesome to see. pic.twitter.com/t1KGO5cs2u
But even just playing Florida International next week is likely to be a bridge too far for the Owls. The emotional buoy of seeing Bohannon before the game will work only once.
Douglas' advice: Take FIU on any number at -10 or lower. They will have the two best units on the field, and their defense should be able to focus on Kennesaw State’s rushing game, which will struggle to gain a rhythm with a new-look offensive line. Only an interception inside the 10-yard line set up the Owls to score more than 10 points against the Bearkats, not that much better a defense than the Panthers’.
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College football Week 12 things you definitely should react to
But do overreact to Sam Houston State failing to blow out a depleted team without its head coach.
The Sam Houston Bearkats now head to Jacksonville State with a chance to remain in the Conference USA title race. But the Gamecocks can lock upa bid in the championship game with a win.
A home team with more certain motivation? That is a reason alone to bet.
But the Saturday struggles with Kennesaw State shined a light on Sam Houston State’s deficiencies. It will be a ground-bound game, likely lessening the variance, and the Gamecocks are significantly more physical than the Owls.
Douglas' advice: A ground-bound game should keep the wanted spread within a score, but Jacksonville State up to -7 should be a nice piece of value as Rich Rodriguez moves closer to a conference championship.
And do overreact to the conference tiebreakers.
They are not as complicated as they seem. Only the SEC and the Big 12 need to be discussed.
BYU’s loss to Kansas has opened up the Big 12, and now the Cougars face Arizona State next weekend, the Sun Devils are somehow still alive for a possible Playoff spot.
Kalani Sitake: "It sucks. But you know, I think that happens, that's why the ball is shaped like that -- to make things interesting."
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) November 17, 2024
They will each have another game to worry about, but BYU should handle Houston in the regular-season finale, just as Arizona State should dispatch Arizona, Colorado should ease by Oklahoma State, and Iowa State will have no trouble blowing out Utah next week. Assume those wins the week after Thanksgiving and focus on next week.
Whoever wins BYU at Arizona State will be in the Big 12 title game. If Colorado beats Kansas, it will be in the Big 12 title game. For that matter, if BYU wins next week, Colorado will be in the Big 12 title game even if it loses to Kansas.
If Arizona State and Kansas win, then Iowa State will be in the Big 12 title game if it beats Kansas State to close the season. If Arizona State and Kansas win next week, and Iowa State loses in two weeks against Kansas State, then BYU would get a quick rematch against Arizona State.
No, that was not eloquently written, but each scenario was laid out there in plain terms.
In the SEC, Kirby Smart did his former employer a favor. By beating Tennessee, Smart all but assured Alabama a bid in the SEC championship game. If the Tide win out, they will face the winner of Texas at Texas A&M on Nov. 30 unless …
Three of the following seven things happen:
Kentucky beats Texas.
Mississippi State beats Missouri. This one actually counts for double.
Mississippi State beats Mississippi.
Arkansas beats Missouri.
Vanderbilt beats LSU.
Oklahoma beats LSU.
If three of those happen, with that Mississippi State over Missouri result counting as two, then Georgia would slide into the SEC title game.
Douglas' advice: If inclined to think LSU could slide to 6-6, then also consider Georgia to win the SEC at +310 at DraftKings.
Not intended for use in MA.
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