The Notre Dame Fighting Irish gave Florida State a loud reminder last week that it can always get worse, but that 52-3 blowout of a nominal rival did not inflate this week’s spread against the Virginia Cavaliers, certainly not as might have been expected.
Thus, my Virginia vs. Notre Dame predictions were decided quickly. The number is simply too small, and these college football picks see value in the Irish before this 3:30 NBC kickoff on Saturday, November 16.
Virginia vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet
Who will win Virginia vs Notre Dame?
Probably the four-score favorite.
As bad as Notre Dame's loss to Northern Illinois was, it has given the Irish coaching staff an easy example to cite all season on what can go wrong if the team is not focused. And head coach Marcus Freeman has done just that, reminding his roster of that loss each and every week.
At this point, one would think they no longer need the reminder. The prospect of hosting a Playoff game is looking more and more viable, but only as long as they finish the season 11-1.
My best bet
Notre Dame -22.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
When Notre Dame blew out Purdue, 66-7, back in mid-September, there was a quick handicap the following week.
Let’s paraphrase it following the Irish walloping of Florida State last week. Sidenote: Are those the two worst Power Four teams this season? No, Stanford ranks between them, per ESPN’s SP+ ratings. So, in other words, Notre Dame played the three worst Power Four teams this season, winning those three games by a combined score of 167-17.
Running up the score, 49-7, on the Cardinal did not include nonsense scores. One score from a reserve running back was the extent of an embellishment, but the final scores against the Boilermakers and the Seminoles were exaggerated.
Included in last week’s audacious point tally: A 77-yard touchdown drive in 91 seconds just before halftime in what was already a two-score margin, a 79-yard interception return in the final two minutes by a reserve defensive back, and a touchdown drive orchestrated by the backup quarterback in garbage time.
If trying to forecast future events, it may be more honest to consider that a 38-3 win — still a blowout by any means.
The difference between now and mid-September, though, is that those nonsense scores were understood by most advanced metrics. By the time junior quarterback Steve Angeli came in behind center halfway through the fourth quarter, Notre Dame’s stats were no longer boosting its power rating, only the scoreboard and the laughs.
The Irish have been given appropriate credit for last week, and some advanced metrics expected this spread to be north of 27 points.
Why, then — it must be asked — is it below 23 points?
For one thing, the Virginia Cavaliers have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six games, though just 3-3 outright. One of those ATS wins came courtesy of a 65-yard score with 1:39 left of a blowout loss to Clemson. Another needed an 18-0 fourth quarter for both an outright and an ATS win.
For another, some might doubt Notre Dame’s want to run up this score on Senior Day. Those who do overlook the fact the Irish have played overmatched ACC foes in each of their last six Senior Days, including all three with Marcus Freeman on staff.
The last three featured an average final score of 48-2.3; the last six Notre Dame Senior Days have had an average final score of 45.2-8, with the closest margin of Irish victory a mere 24 points.
Virginia vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame -21.5
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
Jordan Faison anytime touchdown
Anyone offering an anytime touchdown market without including Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love needs to find some courage. The Irish running back has scored in every game this season, listed at -300 to do so this week at other books.
Normally, that would create an incentive to fade him, but the fact is the Notre Dame coaching staff knows Love has scored in every game this year and is chasing an Irish record, so it will be sure he keeps that afoot.
Alas, BetMGM refuses to offer him as a prop, though still including quarterback Riley Leonard despite being listed at -500 at other books. Leonard has crossed the goal line 13 times in the last eight games. If not for a Love emphasis, there would be value in betting on Leonard to score at least twice.
Adding Jordan Faison to this thought process, though, escalates this same-game parlay’s payout. Faison has been banged up this season and is finally rounding into form. He's arguably Notre Dame’s best receiver, and he had five targets last week, catching two of them. As long as Leonard is looking for Faison, a score will eventually come. Betting on it until then is only finding value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Virginia vs Notre Dame odds
Virginia vs Notre Dame live odds
Virginia vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Virginia vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -22.5
- Virginia vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Virginia +1,000, Notre Dame -2,000
- Virginia vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Virginia vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first genuine lines listed Notre Dame as only a 21-point favorite, a number that was quickly bet up to -22.5, where it has held all week.
- This total first hit the market at 50.5 and, despite that movement in the spread, has not moved an inch all week.
- If anything, expect those trends to continue as bigger money comes in upon the weekend. This line could push to -24, but the total should stay still.
Virginia vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its last five, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of two touchdowns. Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs Notre Dame.
Virginia vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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