College football betting in Week 4 features the Battle For The Chancellor's Spurs as the Texas Longhorns take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
After an 8-5 record in 2019 under head coach Tom Herman, the Longhorns entered this year with big expectations and destroyed UTEP 59-3 in their season opener. The Red Raiders are coming off a 4-8 season and were lucky to hold on for a 35-33 win over Houston Baptist in their first game of the year.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best picks and predictions for Texas vs Texas Tech on Saturday, September 26, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a hot and sunny day at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas with temperatures peaking in the low 90's and winds up to 8 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Texas: Jake Smith WR (Probable), Daniel Brown RB (Out), Marquez Bimage DE (Out)
Texas Tech: SaRodorick Thompson RB (Probable), Xavier White RB (Questionable), McLane Mannix WR (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 9-1-1 in Texas Tech's last 11 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Texas vs. Texas Tech.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Let's not tiptoe around this, Texas Tech almost lost to an FCS team in Week 2. And not exactly a good FCS team with Houston Baptist fresh off a 26-point loss to another FCS program in North Texas.
The Red Raiders gave up 567 passing yards and four touchdowns to HBU quarterback Bailey Zappe and now have to take on the Longhorns Heisman hopeful in Sam Ehlinger.
Ehlinger completed 75.8 percent of his passes for 426 yards and five TDs despite playing just the first half against UTEP. He has totaled a whopping 80 passing and rushing TDs over the last two seasons while throwing for 6,995 yards.
Despite losing their top two wide receivers, the Longhorns return the core of their offense from a year ago. And while their defense struggled in 2019, they still held Texas Tech to 24 points when they met up, and have eight returning starters in 2020. They should do just enough to slow down Texas Tech to cover this spread.
PREDICTION: Texas -18 (-110)
Over/Under pick
At 70, this is definitely a lofty total, but it's a number which these teams have surpassed in four of the last five games in the head-to-head.
Texas Tech ranked dead-last in the nation is pass defense last year, allowing 321.1 yards per game to FBS foes. If the Red Raiders contest against Houston Baptist is any indication, they could be even worse this year.
However, the Longhorns weren't much better in 2019, surrendering 292.5 passing yards per game against FBS opponents, which ranked outside the Top-120 schools in the country. While they have the talent and experience to be better this year, it's doubtful they can shut down a Red Raiders team that loves to air it out even in the post-Kliff Kingsbury area.
Texas Tech ranked third in the nation in pass attempts and seventh in passing yards a year ago. Even with a new starting QB in Alan Bowman they're sure to resort to their dink-and-dunk offense, which is good for picking up points but bad for keeping opposing offenses off the field. Take the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 70.5 (-110)
First Half Bet
While Texas Tech had a horrible defense last year, they surprisingly played pretty well during the first half of games. In the first 30 minutes, they allowed 14.7 ppg which ranked 69th in the country, while in the second half of games they allowed 16.3 ppg which ranked 109th.
That trend held true against Houston Baptist in Week 2 as well, as the Red Raiders allowed just 10 points in the first half but surrendered 23 after the break.
As for the Longhorns, their offense sizzled in the second half of contests in 2019, leading the nation with 19.8 ppg against FBS foes. However, they ranked a less-impressive 46th in first-half scoring with 15.4 ppg. Take the Under on the Longhorns first-half team total.
PREDICTION: First half team total - Texas Under 22.5 (-110)
Texas vs Texas Tech betting card
- Texas -18 (-110)
- Over 70.5 (-110)
- First half team total - Texas Under 22.5 (-110)
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