The NBA’s top team is reeling, with the Milwaukee Bucks down 0-2 to the Miami Heat entering Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal Friday.
NBA odds have the Bucks opening as 5.5-point NBA betting favorites for Game 3 and dropped to -5 with early money reacting to the Heat’s controversial victory in Game 2 Wednesday. While the officials made some questionable decisions in those closing seconds, there’s no denying Miami outplayed Milwaukee for much of that game.
Here are our NBA free picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Heat on September 4.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat betting preview
NBA odds to win series
Milwaukee: +130
Miami: -160
Injuries
Milwaukee: None
Miami: Andre Iguodala SF (Questionable), Gabe Vincent SG (Questionable), Chris Silva PF (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-2 in Milwaukee's last 8 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Heat continue to suck the Bucks into their brand of basketball. After a sloppy Game 1 of the series, Wednesday’s Game 2 was nearly as grimy – and more physical.
Adding to the fatigue of the postseason pace, Miami is taking a strategy from the hockey playoffs and seeing every hit as an investment that will come back and payout down the road. And with a deep roster featuring plenty of contributors on both ends of the floor, the Heat are wearing down Milwaukee.
The proof is in the little things.
The Bucks coughed up the ball 14 times in Game 2 following 19 turnovers in Game 1, allowing the Heat to manufacture 50 total points off of turnovers. Miami has registered 51 boxouts in the series versus 34 from Milwaukee. And while the rebounding total is dead even, those boxouts set the tone and make the Bucks think twice about crashing the boards. That extra contact has also helped the Heat scoop up 25 loose balls – the extra possessions needed to knockoff the No. 1 seed.
PREDICTION: Miami +5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
We expected an uptick in tempo from Game 1 to Game 2, with Milwaukee pushing the pace to beat the Heat defenders down the floor. We were wrong, with the pace rating for Wednesday coming in at about the same as the series opener.
We did, however, correctly predict the Bucks to be better from the foul line, and make use of Miami’s mistakes after failing to score points off turnovers in Game 1. Milwaukee, which got just 10 points of 16 turnovers in the opener, scored 13 points on only 10 turnovers in Game 2 and knocked down 33 of its 40 shots from the charity stripe.
And speaking of foul shots, these teams have combined for 124 free-throw attempts in two games (97 made). That’s a lot of scoring chances with the clock stopped, a sure-fire recipe for Overs. With the physical tone of the series and the refs apparently ready to let the whistle rip, we like more freebies on Friday.
PREDICTION: Over 223.5 (-110)
First-quarter pick
The opening 12 minutes of this series have been action-packed, with 69 points scored in the first quarter of Game 1 and 67 points accrued in the first frame of Game 2.
While the overall series pace is a slogging 98.75, the first-quarter pace rating is tearing up the hardwood at 105.0. The Bucks and Heat are a combined 47 for 93 from the field (50.5 percent), including 18 for 38 from 3-point range (47 percent) in those first quarters.
Those 1Q results blew away the first-quarters totals of 56.5 points in both games and we’ll ride the Overs as long as bookies keep setting these low numbers.
PREDICTION: First-quarter Over 55.5 (-110)
Bucks vs Heat Betting Card
- Miami +5 (-110)
- Over 223.5 (-110)
- First-quarter Over 55.5 (-110)
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