In-state rivals Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes renew hostilities when the two face off Saturday, but these are two programs trending in opposite directions in the college football landscape.
Miami has gotten off to a strong start going 2-0 SU/ATS behind transfer quarterback D’Eriq King, while Florida State was upset as 13-point home faves in its opener. And now head coach Mike Norvell will not be with the team after contracting COVID-19.
We break down the NCAA football odds with our best picks and predictions for Florida State vs Miami on Saturday, September 26, with kickoff at 7:30 ET.
Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes betting preview
Weather
There's a chance for some messy weather in Miami Gardens. The forecast is calling for scattered thunderstorms leading up to kickoff, with the humidity from the storms making it feel around 90 degrees for this one. But there should be minimal wind during the game. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Florida State: Jarvis Brownlee DB (Probable), D.J. Matthews WR (Questionable), Hamsah Nasirildeen DB (Questionable), Darius Washington OL (Questionable), Devontay Love-Taylor OL (Questionable), Joshua Kaindoh DE (Out), Meiko Dotson DB (Out).
Miami: Issiah Walker Jr. OL (Questionable), Matias Gasc P (Questionable), Jeremiah Payton WR (Questionable), Larry Hodges TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
As is the case with a lot of college football rivalries, the underdog has had betting value in this matchup, with the team getting points going 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Find more NCAA football betting trends for Florida State vs. Miami.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Well, we’re not going to say The U is back just yet, but they sure passed their first test with flying colors as Miami went on the road took care of business against an up-and-coming Louisville Cardinals squad, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs. The win not only moves the Hurricanes to 2-0 SU/ATS for the season, but it also showed just how dynamic D’Eriq King is, and what makes Miami so dangerous this season.
In Miami’s 31-14 win over the UAB Blazers, the 'Canes and King didn’t throw the ball too much and rumbled all over the Blazers. But Louisville’s weak spot was their secondary, so King let it fly, going 18-30 for 325 yards with three scores and no picks. Oh, and then all RB Cam’Ron Harris did was run for 134 yards, on nine carries!
Now Miami faces an in-state rival who got embarrassed in its home opener, losing to Georgia Tech 16-13 as 13-point favorites. The Seminoles couldn’t get anything going in that game, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, and 4.4 yards per pass attempt. The offensive line also allowed QB James Blackman to get sacked three times.
That doesn’t bode well against a Miami team that just unveiled a new turnover chain and are coming off forcing three takeaways, and three sacks.
The Seminoles obliviously have some talent, but not only will they be without their head coach, but likely star DB Hamsah Nasirildeen as well. King is legit, and The U can hurt you in too many ways to justify fading them in this spot.
PREDICTION: Miami -11 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While underdogs have been a good bet in this rivalry, and are by rule of thumb a good bet in rivalry games in general, there are just too many factors going against Florida State in this one to back them with any confidence. But we can use that rivalry angle when it comes to the total (the Under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings). Whether the game ends with a close score or not, this is a pretty fierce rivalry, and the intensity to start this game should be top-notch.
Even with Nasirildeen questionable to play, the Seminoles still have some other studs on the defensive side of the ball, including Asante Samuel Jr. in the secondary and defensive tackle Marvin Wilson to clog up the middle. While the Miami offensive line is elite and should wear out the Florida State defense over the course of the game, the Noles defense should do enough early to keep this one below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 54.5 (-110)
First Quarter Total Pick
The Under play feeds right into our prop pick for this one. While Florida State put up 10 first-quarter points on Georgia Tech, the offense then went cold scoring just three for the rest of the game. And last season, it was a real struggle for the Seminoles to get going on the road, as they averaged a minuscule 1.7 first-quarter points on the road. The things that plagued them last season (putrid offensive line play in particular) don’t look like they've changed this season. Miami can obviously strike quick at any time, but there should be a bit of a feeling-out process early on in this one.
PREDICTION: Under 13 (-126)
Florida State vs Miami betting card
- Miami -11 (-110)
- Under 54.5 (-110)
- Under 13 First Quarter Total (-126)
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