Finally, at long last, we have 2025 Oscars odds!
Festival season is in the books, and we've got a bit of a clearer picture of which films will compete at the Academy Awards. We've also got a host! Conan O'Brien will MC the night as Hollywood honors its best and brightest from the past year on Sunday, March 2, 2025.
Here are the latest odds to win Best Picture at the event.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | +175 | +225 |
| The Brutalist | +200 | +162 |
| Emilia Perez | +700 | +600 |
| Sing Sing | +700 | +600 |
| Wicked | +900 | +1,000 |
| Conclave | +1,000 | +800 |
| Dune: Part Two | +1,000 | +700 |
| Blitz | +1,400 | +900 |
| The Room Next Door | +1,600 | +1,200 |
| Saturday Night | +2,000 | +1,400 |
| Nickel Boys | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| Gladiator 2 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | +2,500 | +2,000 |
| The Piano Lesson | +2,800 | +2,500 |
| A Real Pain | +3,500 | +3,300 |
| Queer | +4,000 | +2,000 |
| September 5 | OTB | +3,300 |
| Small Things Like These | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| All We Imagine as Light | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| A Different Man | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| A Complete Unknown | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| Love Lies Bleeding | +4,000 | OTB |
| Juror No. 2 | +4,000 | +3,300 |
| The Outrun | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| Oh, Canada | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| Nosferatu | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Maria | +5,000 | +3,300 |
| Kinds of Kindness | +5,000 | +4,000 |
| Shirley | +5,000 | OTB |
| Bird | +6,500 | +4,000 |
| The Bikeriders | +6,500 | +6,600 |
| We Live in Time | +6,500 | +5,000 |
| The Beast | +8,000 | +5,000 |
| Hard Truths | +8,000 | +6,600 |
| Joker: Folie a Deux | +10,000 | +3,300 |
| Challengers | +10,000 | +6,600 |
| The Substance | +10,000 | +6,600 |
| Will and Harper | +10,000 | +4,000 |
Odds as of 12-4.
This year's race is wide open
Odds for Best Picture were routinely available before June last year. With the prospect of Barbie and Oppenheimer looming last July, books got out in front of the race. Additionally, there were other heavyweight releases on the calendar like Martin Scorsese's epic Killers of the Flower Moon, so the race had some tangible quality to it right away. This year has been different.
Whether due to the lingering effects of last summer's strikes or the surplus of movies left over from the pandemic finally drying up, 2025 hasn't been as impressive for Hollywood. While this may be frustrating for some, it has created the most intriguing Best Picture race in recent memory. Sure, Moonlight topping La La Land was a genuine surprise at the time and there have been others since, but the races had mostly been shorn up by the time festivals were done.
Or, at the very least, a concrete group of contenders were seen. While some movies are virtual locks to receive a BP nomination (Anora, The Brutalist), there are a lot of polarizing titles in the race. Emilia Perez, for example, could lead all movies in nominations or it could miss out on most of the races entirely. Will Wicked actually be recognized? Or is the early hype around it more a response to how weak the calendar is perceived to be?
Will something more abstract and bold like Nickel Boys squeak into the race? Will Challengers storm back after being somewhat forgotten after an early-year release? These are all questions that have yet to fully crystallize into answers, and we likely won't get them until the nominations are released.
Also, beware of titles listed in odds that are not being released in 2024, ahead of the nomination cutoff. Some of these include Mickey 17, Alto Knights, The Amateur, and others. None of these have been included in the above odds board.
Anora has emerged as a front-runner
In late August, I said to keep an eye on Anora in this space. Well, in a matter of two months, it has gone from +900 to +125 to win Best Picture. It's hardly a lock, but it's been one of the definitive crowd-pleasers on the slate, juggling a variety of tones from screwball to melodrama with grace while being supremely entertaining throughout.
From director Sean Baker (Red Rocket, The Florida Project), Anora won the Palme d'Or at Cannes — making it the first American film to take home the honors since The Tree of Life in 2011 — and focuses on a young Uzbek-American stripper who enters a relationship with the son of a Russian oligarch. Baker's films exist on the periphery, focusing on the downtrodden and marginalized.
This is a smallish movie, but it wouldn't be super surprising to see the Academy go small immediately after awarding the biggest possible film in Oppenheimer.
Now, The Brutalist is drawing the shortest odds at bet365, and that can change in a heartbeat. It hasn't been released yet and it came out of nowhere (it wasn't even on the board in late August). While it's been a festival darling, I wonder if its 3.5-hour runtime will prove to be a barrier for Academy voters and the public at large.
A Real Pain stands a real chance
Of all the films listed, Jesse Eisenberg's A Real Pain surprised me the most at 50/1 in late November (it has since moved to +3,500, which makes more sense). It was beloved out of Sundance and has done very well critically and commercially in limited release. If it expands to more screens and gets greater exposure, it could be a true dark horse. Pundits have pegged it as a likely nominee in the Best Picture category, so while it may not seem like a win is in the offing, those odds are very strong for one that should crack the Top 10.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Sean Baker's Anora is drawing the shortest odds to win Best Picture at DraftKings while The Brutalist is atop the bet365 board.
The 2025 Oscars are currently scheduled for March 3, 2025 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Oppenheimer won Best Picture in 2024 as a heavy frontrunner. Altogether, Oppenheimer won seven Oscars out of its 13 nominations.
Christopher Nolan won his first Best Director Academy Award for helming Oppenheimer, which was the big winner on Oscar night.
Cillian Murphy won Best Actor for Oppenheimer while Emma Stone won Best Actress for Poor Things.
