2025 Oscars Betting Odds & Predictions

The 2025 Academy Awards are hours away, and while Emilia Perez leads the way with 13 nominations, its chances at most major categories appear shot.

Anora surged at the right time after some big guild wins, but The Brutalist, Conclave, and others are still alive in what appears to be a wide-open race.

Conan O'Brien hosts the 97th edition of the Oscars on Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET. Check out our downloadable 2025 Oscars ballot before the broadcast begins.

All odds and predictions as of 3-2. 

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Odds to win Best Picture

Film
Anora	-200	-200
Conclave	+225	+225
The Brutalist	+600	+650
A Complete Unknown	+3500	+5000
Wicked	+5000	+6600
Emilia Perez	+6500	+6600
The Substance	+8000	+10000
I'm Still Here	+10000	+10000
Dune: Part Two	+10000	+10000
Nickel Boys	+15000	+10000

My prediction: Conclave (+225 at bet365)

With big wins at the Producers and Directors Guild Awards, Anora has regained its status as the frontrunner for Best Picture as Emilia Perez has evaporated from contention and The Brutalist has lost momentum. Its underwhelming showing at The Golden Globes is well in the rearview, and it seems unlikely that anything will challenge it on Oscar night.

For months, I was on The Brutalist's bandwagon — and if I had my druthers, it would win — but I'm afraid that its lack of support from either of the aforementioned guilds hurts it too much to win here. However, despite the likelihood of an Anora victory — and one that would be richly deserved, even if I prefer The Brutalist — Conclave has momentum.

The pulpy papal drama/thriller was trading at +1600 in early February and was at +700 when I pegged it as a dark horse in the days leading up to the Screen Actors Guild awards. Well, after it won Outstanding Performance by a Cast, beating out Anora, it has moved to +225. It's not the best time to bet it, but it might be closer to even money or even the betting favorite by the weekend.

Odds to win Best Director

Director (Film)
Sean Baker (Anora)	-230	-275
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)	+160	+200
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)	+2000	+2000
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)	+2500	+2500
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)	+2500	+2500

My prediction: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (+200 at bet365)

For a spell, Corbet was running away with this and was listed at -500. The PGA and DGA wins for Anora have boosted Sean Baker's chances significantly. I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon — though it would have been nice to get a couple of shares of Baker when he was +450 — and sticking with Corbet at plus money now. I wasn't betting on him at -500, but the added value is appealing. Still, Baker's guild wins may be all we need to know it's his.

Odds to win Best Actor

Actor (Film)
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)	-250	-275
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)	+150	+200
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)	+1800	+1400
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)	+3500	+3300
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)	+5000	+3300

My prediction: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (+200 at bet365)

I bet Timothee Chalamet when he was +187 and am sticking to it, especially after he won at the Screen Actors Guild. He's been extremely visible on the campaign trail — playing Dylan songs on SNL was a nice touch — and delivered an all-timer speech after his SAG win. While voters have already submitted their picks for the Oscars, SAG is a pretty good measuring stick for acting awards.

Odds to win Best Actress

Actress (Film)
Demi Moore (The Substance)	-250	-250
Mikey Madison (Anora)	+185	+200
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)	+1000	+800
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)	+3500	+4000
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)	+5000	+4000

My prediction: Demi Moore, The Substance (-250 at DraftKings)

I'm waffling here. I was behind Demi Moore all winter until Mikey Madison started picking up guild wins, which brought her odds very close to even money. Moore winning at SAG really throws a wrench into that momentum, though, and I think the narrative of "it's time" for The Substance lead will pay off. 

Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Actor (Film)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)	-3500	-5000
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)	+1100	+1200
Yura Borisov (Anora)	+1800	+2000
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)	+2000	+2000
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)	+2000	+2000

My prediction: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (-3500 at DraftKings)

I'm throwing in the towel on Guy Pearce. If you've followed my updates here, you'll know that I've been high on Guy Pearce's performance as wealthy industrialist and artistic benefactor Harrison Van Buren in The Brutalist and even was intrigued by the value associated with his dark-horse odds.

But Kieran Culkin has been such a buzzsaw throughout awards season that it would be foolish to bet against him. 

Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Actress (Film)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)	-2500	-2500
Ariana Grande (Wicked)	+800	+1000
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)	+1400	+2000
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)	+2000	+1400
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)	+2500	+2500

My prediction: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez (-2500 at DraftKings)

For as mixed-to-hostile as some of the hyper-online reaction has been to Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana has more or less come out looking like the movie's All-Star. I don't see a great alternative here like I do in Best Supporting Actor. If I had to take a stab at an upset, it's Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. One, it's good value at +2500. And two, she's been touted for her role in that film all fall and winter, particularly because she apparently learned to sing for it. 

However, after winning at SAG, I think Saldana is safe.

Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Film
The Wild Robot	-310	-275
Flow	+200	+200
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl	+1600	+1600
Inside Out 2	+2000	+2200
Memoir of a Snail	+3500	+2800

My prediction: Flow (+225 at DraftKings)

Switching gears a bit here, as I've held onto the chalky pick of The Wild Robot throughout the season, but with Flow moving to +225, I think it's a fine value play before the awards are announced. The Academy is less America-centric than ever and Flow has been widely celebrated for its innovations and creativity. I'm still picking The Wild Robot when doing Oscars pools, but the value on +225 for Flow is intriguing enough, especially since it's also a nominee in Best International Feature, so there's a lot of support for it.

Odds to win Best International Feature

Film
I'm Still Here	-200	-225
Emilia Perez	+140	+100
The Seed of the Sacred Fig	+1600	+1400
Flow	+2500	+2500
The Girl with the Needle	+5000	+4000

My prediction: I'm Still Here (-200 at DraftKings)

Emilia Perez is more polarizing than its 13 nominations suggest and while winning International Feature seemed like the logical consolation prize before eventually coming up short in the Best Picture race, I'm Still Here has come on strong in the wake of Emilia Perez's controversies and is now the betting favorite.

The Brazilian feature has received far more rapturous reviews and also received a Best Picture nomination. I bet this when it was +450 in January, so, unfortunately, the value has dried up. And Emilia Perez's odds haven't gone far enough in the other direction to warrant a flier.

Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Film
No Other Land	-165	-150
Porcelain War	+150	+130
Sugarcane	+700	+650
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat	+1600	+1600
Black Box Diaries	+2000	+2000

My prediction: No Other Land (-150 at bet365)

No Other Land doesn't have theatrical distribution in the United States yet, and while this initially seemed to help its chances, Porcelain War has narrowed the gap in the odds.

No Other Land is a social justice movie centering the strife of Palestinian citizens in Gaza, and maybe it's seen as too much of a hot-button topic for the Academy to deal with. That reasoning would be cowardly, but the lack of full-throated support for the film outside its critical reception is concerning.

However, Porcelain War's odds have gradually shortened, potentially indicating a win in a category that once looked locked-up.

Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Film
Anora	-250	-250
The Substance	+300	+400
A Real Pain	+450	+350
The Brutalist	+1400	+1400
September 5	+4000	+3300

My prediction: A Real Pain (+450 at DraftKings)

 A Real Pain has shot up to +450 after sitting around +900 just a week ago. Jesse Eisenberg has been highly visible throughout awards season and won at the BAFTAs and Independent Spirit Awards. This helium may be a mirage, but I don't think so. It still has value at +450, which has an implied probability of 18%, and I'm willing to wager its chances are better than that.

Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Film
Conclave	-1800	-1000
Nickel Boys	+900	+750
Emilia Perez	+1200	+1000
A Complete Unknown	+2000	+2200
Sing Sing	+2500	+2200

My prediction: Nickel Boys (+900 at DraftKings)

Conclave is probably the winner here, as the odds suggest, but Nickel Boys is an intriguing title, especially if you buy into the idea that screenplay historically skews a little more imaginative when it comes to the awards it doles out. RaMell Ross' debut narrative feature film — he previously directed the documentary Hale County This Morning This Evening — hasn't been as widely seen as some others, but it has been widely hailed as one of the most inventive and creative films of the year.

Since initially picking Nickel Boys at +1600 — when it had the longest odds in the category — it has gained momentum, likely as more voters have seen and been affected by it. It moved to +1000 last week and has shot up even further to +750. I'm still a little hesitant because Conclave is looking stronger in the Best Picture race.

Oddly, it missed out on Best Cinematography, which is where I'd have taken it because of its unique first-person perspective, so I'll take a flyer on it here even though I expect Conclave to win.

Odds to win Best Cinematography

Film
The Brutalist	-340	-400
Nosferatu	+350	+450
Dune Part Two	+550	+550
Maria	+2000	+1600
Emilia Perez	+6500	+8000

My prediction: The Brutalist (-340 at DraftKings)

I simply believe The Brutalist will win most of the technical achievement honors on Oscar night even if it comes up short in Best Picture.

A curious development over the last week or two has been Maria shooting from +6600 to +2000 or shorter. It would still be a shocker, but Edward Lachman was honored by the American Society of Cinematographers, which has at least put a pin in The Brutalist being a runaway winner. If you jumped in on Maria when it was +5000 or longer, then great. Otherwise, I don't love it any shorter than +2500. 

Odds to win Best Film Editing

Film
Conclave	-200	-200
Anora	+200	+200
The Brutalist	+800	+850
Wicked	+1400	+1200
Emilia Perez	+3500	+4000

My prediction: The Brutalist (+850 at bet365)

See above. Though it should be pointed out that "editing" and "making a film shorter" are not the same thing. I wish that didn't need to be said, but almost anytime a longer film gets released, some wiseacres on Twitter all make the same crack at the same time: "Where's the editor?"

However, I have some pause here as the market has completely moved in the wrong direction, favoring Conclave and Anora ahead of The Brutalist. 

Odds to win Best Original Score

Film
The Brutalist	-400	-500
The Wild Robot	+400	+450
Conclave	+800	+1000
Emilia Perez	+1600	+1800
Wicked	+3000	+2200

My prediction: The Brutalist (-400 at bet365)

The real winner here should be Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for their phenomenal score to Luca Guadagnino's Challengers. However, not only were they not nominated, but that movie was entirely shut out. At any rate, The Brutalist score is huge in scope and feel and it would be a shocker if it didn't win.

Odds to win Best Sound

Film
Dune Part Two	-400	-250
A Complete Unknown	+350	+225
Wicked	+400	+600
The Wild Robot	+5000	+5000
Emilia Perez	+5000	+5000

My prediction: A Complete Unknown (+350 at DraftKings)

This is all about perceived value. While Dune 2 is favored, it is way less represented in these Oscar nominations than the first installment was in its year.

Instead, I like looking at a movie all about a particular music scene where the songs factor heavily into the film's success. You can make a similar argument for Wicked, but A Complete Unknown has more momentum behind it as a whole and moved from +800 to +600 since I originally picked it.

Briefly, bet365 has moved it to +1100 two weeks ago, but it's since shortened considerably to +350 or further, reigniting my slight optimism in the category.

Odds to win Best Original Song

Song (Film)
El Mal (Emilia Perez)	-280	-250
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)	+350	+350
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)	+750	+750
Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)	+900	+900
Like a Bird (Sing Sing)	+2000	+2200

My prediction: El Mal — Emilia Perez (-275 at bet365)

Oof. Not an inspiring category. I'd avoid it altogether. It would be funny if this was finally the year Diane Warren won on her 16th nomination in the category.

Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Film
Dune Part Two	-1000	-1200
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes	+500	+600
Wicked	+2000	+2000
Better Man	+2500	+2500
Alien: Romulus	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Dune Part Two (-1000 at DraftKings)

Chalk. Yes, Dune 2 isn't as big a presence this time around, but it is widely renowned for how it looks and the rest of the category is either uninspiring or feels like too much of a long shot.

Odds to win Best Production Design

Film
Wicked	-400	-600
Nosferatu	+500	+600
The Brutalist	+800	+1000
Conclave	+900	+1200
Dune Part 2	+3500	+3300

My prediction: The Brutalist (+1000 at bet365)

Well now, this is curious. Nosferatu has seen its odds shorten considerably, jumping to second behind Wicked. That may prove to be the best dark horse in the category instead of my pick, The Brutalist.

Odds to win Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Film
The Substance	-1400	-2000
Wicked	+600	+800
Nosferatu	+1400	+1400
Emilia Perez	+2800	+2800
A Different Man	+3500	+3300

My prediction: The Substance (-1200 at bet365)

This was a lot tighter in early February, and The Substance has since gone from around -350 to -1200. I'm not betting it at that number but I'm also not looking for an alternative.

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Film
Wicked	-2000	-2000
Conclave	+800	+800
Nosferatu	+1400	+1400
A Complete Unknown	+2500	+2500
Gladiator II	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Wicked (-2000 at bet365)

Here it is, the one trophy for Wicked.

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Film
Wander to Wonder	-175	-138
Yuck!	+200	+150
Beautiful Men	+400	+650
Magic Candles	+1400	+1800
In the Shadow of the Cypress	+2000	+2200

My prediction: Wander to Wonder (-225 at bet365)

The shorts categories are so hard to predict and I'll generally avoid betting on them entirely except as part of a larger Oscars pool. In which case, I will usually follow the chalk outline.

Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Film
I Am Ready, Warden	+110	+110
The Only Girl in the Orchestra	+175	+162
Incident	+330	+300
Death by Numbers	+700	+1200
Instruments of a Beating Heart	+3500	+4000

My prediction: The Only Girl in the Orchestra (+175 at DraftKings)

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine was considered a potential frontrunner here, but ultimately didn't get a nomination. I'm taking The Only Girl in the Orchestra because it's seen the most movement toward even money, and with all five options being at plus money, it's filled with uncertainty.

Odds to win Best Live-Action Short

Film
A Lien	-150	-150
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent	+160	+162
Anuja	+500	+600
I'm Not a Robot	+1000	+1600
The Last Ranger	+2500	+4000

My prediction: A Lien (-150 at DraftKings)

Again, go with chalk or avoid it entirely. 

2025 Oscars betting at Kalshi

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