2025 Oscars Betting Odds & Predictions

The 2025 Academy Awards are less than two weeks away, and while Emilia Perez leads the way with 13 nominations, its chances at most major categories appear shot.

Anora is surging at the right time after some big guild wins, but The Brutalist, Conclave, and others are still alive in what appears to be a wide-open race.

The actual ceremony — hosted by Conan O'Brien — is slated for Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET.

All odds and predictions as of 2-20.

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Odds to win Best Picture

Film
Anora	-270	-350
The Brutalist	+400	+400
Conclave	+550	+700
A Complete Unknown	+2000	+4000
Emilia Perez	+5000	+5000
Wicked	+5000	+5000
I'm Still Here	+8000	+1000
The Substance	+10000	+10000
Nickel Boys	+10000	+10000
Dune: Part Two	+10000	+10000

My prediction: Conclave (+700 at bet365)

With big wins at the Producers and Directors Guild Awards, Anora has regained its status as the frontrunner for Best Picture as Emilia Perez has evaporated from contention and The Brutalist has lost momentum. Its underwhelming showing at The Golden Globes is well in the rearview, and it seems unlikely that anything will challenge it on Oscar night.

For months, I was on The Brutalist's bandwagon — and if I had my druthers, it would win — but I'm afraid that its lack of support from either of the aforementioned guilds hurts it too much to win here. However, despite the likelihood of an Anora victory — and one that would be richly deserved, even if I prefer The Brutalist — it's worth considering Conclave at +700.

The pulpy papal drama/thriller was trading at +1600 in early February and has more than halved its number. Ranked balloting may be in its favor as it could be in many voters' Top 2 or 3, giving it a decent shot of splitting the difference. At +700, there is still value here and it's the best alternative to Anora on the betting market.

Odds to win Best Director

Director (Film)
Sean Baker (Anora)	-140	-138
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)	+100	+100
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)	+2000	+2000
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)	+2500	+2500
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)	+2500	+2500

My prediction: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (+100 at bet365)

For a spell, Corbet was running away with this and was listed at -500. The PGA and DGA wins for Anora have boosted Sean Baker's chances significantly. I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon — though it would have been nice to get a couple of shares of Baker when he was +450 — and sticking with Corbet at even money now. I wasn't betting on him at -500, but the added value is appealing.

Odds to win Best Actor

Actor (Film)
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)	-280	-300
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)	+175	+250
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)	+1200	+1200
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)	+2500	+2500
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)	+3500	+2500

My prediction: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (+250 at bet365)

I bet Timothee Chalamet when he was +187 and am sticking to it as his odds have gone back the other way. 

I ultimately think he takes this from Adrien Brody as Chalamet has been a whirlwind throughout the awards season and performed well as both the host and musical guest (singing Bob Dylan songs) on Saturday Night Live. The Academy loves an active campaigner, and Chalamet is really going for it. 

Odds to win Best Actress

Actress (Film)
Demi Moore (The Substance)	-145	-150
Mikey Madison (Anora)	+120	+120
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)	+1200	+1600
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)	+3500	+3300
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora (+120 at bet365)

This is a pure value play now. Demi Moore has been the frontrunner for ages, but the Anora helium is real and Mikey Madison is still available at plus money despite the market tightening. If Madison moves to even money or shorter — which seems plausible — I wouldn't bother. But a small, speculative wager at +120 is worth it.

Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Actor (Film)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)	-2000	-2000
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)	+900	+1000
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)	+1600	+1800
Yura Borisov (Anora)	+1800	+1800
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)	+2000	+1800

My prediction: Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (+1600 at bet365)

I still like my longshot pick here but if you want to take less of a wild stab but still want to find an alternative to Kieran Culkin here (not that he's bad, but there's no point in betting him at -2000), then Edward Norton's take on Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown could be it. His odds have gradually tightened, indicating some belief that he stands an outside shot.

Pearce's performance in The Brutalist is a personal favorite of mine from last year, so perhaps my judgment is being clouded a touch...but value is value!

Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Actress (Film)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)	-1400	-1400
Ariana Grande (Wicked)	+600	+800
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)	+1400	+1400
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)	+2000	+2000
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)	+2500	+2500

My prediction: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez (-1400 at bet365)

For as mixed-to-hostile as some of the hyper-online reaction has been to Emilia Perez, Zoe Saldana has more or less come out looking like the movie's All-Star. I don't see a great alternative here like I do in Best Supporting Actor. If I had to take a stab at an upset, it's Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. One, it's good value at +2500. And two, she's been touted for her role in that film all fall and winter, particularly because she apparently learned to sing for it. If Emilia Perez's mixed reputation reaches further down the category list, Barbaro could benefit.

Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Film
The Wild Robot	-230	-250
Flow	+160	+187
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl	+1400	+1400
Inside Out 2	+2500	+2500
Memoir of a Snail	+3500	+3300

My prediction: The Wild Robot (-200 at DraftKings)

Yes, it's chalky, but The Wild Robot is also a happy medium between mainstream appeal and artistic merit. It was exceptionally well-received and did well at the box office. While it is risky, Inside Out 2 at +2500 is good value as the film grossed over $1 billion worldwide and was seen by virtually everyone. That kind of cache can help its chances, but I think it's running third in the race.

Odds to win Best International Feature

Film
Emilia Perez	-110	+100
I'm Still Here	-110	-138
The Seed of the Sacred Fig	+1400	+1400
Flow	+2500	+2500
The Girl with the Needle	+4000	+4000

My prediction: I'm Still Here (-110 at DraftKings)

Emilia Perez is more polarizing than its 13 nominations suggest and while winning International Feature seemed like the logical consolation prize before eventually coming up short in the Best Picture race, I'm Still Here has come on strong in the wake of Emilia Perez's controversies and is now the betting favorite or co-favorite.

The Brazilian feature has received far more rapturous reviews and also received a Best Picture nomination. I bet this when it was +450 about a month ago, so, unfortunately, the value has dried up.

Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Film
No Other Land	-200	-138
Porcelain War	+150	+162
Sugarcane	+600	+650
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat	+1400	+1600
Black Box Diaries	+1800	+2000

My prediction: No Other Land (-138 at bet365)

No Other Land doesn't have theatrical distribution in the United States yet, and while this initially seemed to help its chances, Porcelain War has narrowed the gap in the odds.

No Other Land is a social justice movie centering the strife of Palestinian citizens in Gaza and maybe it's seen as too much of a hot-button topic for the Academy to deal with. That reasoning would be cowardly, but the lack of full-throated support for the film outside its critical reception is concerning.

Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Film
Anora	-500	-300
The Substance	+500	+300
A Real Pain	+800	+900
The Brutalist	+1400	+1100
September 5	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Anora (-300 at bet365)

I liked The Substance here when +1400 was still available not long ago. While the market has steamed in its direction a bit, Anora's odds haven't gotten significatnly worse. I'm more likely to avoid betting the category at all, though The Substance did take the top screenplay honor at Cannes.

Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Film
Conclave	-1000	-1200
Emilia Perez	+1000	+1000
Nickel Boys	+1000	+1000
A Complete Unknown	+1200	+1800
Sing Sing	+2000	+2000

My prediction: Nickel Boys (+1000 at DraftKings)

Conclave is probably the winner here, as the odds suggest, but Nickel Boys is an intriguing title, especially if you buy into the idea that screenplay historically skews a little more imaginative when it comes to the awards it doles out. RaMell Ross' debut narrative feature film — he previously directed the documentary Hale County This Morning This Evening — hasn't been as widely seen as some others, but it has been widely hailed as one of the most inventive and creative films of the year.

Since initially picking Nickel Boys at +1600 — when it had the longest odds in the category — it has seemingly gained momentum, likely as more voters have seen and been affected by it.

Oddly, it missed out on Best Cinematography, which is where I'd have taken it because of its unique first-person perspective, so I'll take a flyer on it here even though I expect Conclave to win.

Odds to win Best Cinematography

Film
The Brutalist	-310	-250
Dune Part Two	+330	+333
Nosferatu	+450	+350
Emilia Perez	+3500	+6600
Maria	+4000	+6600

My prediction: The Brutalist (-250 at bet365)

I simply believe The Brutalist will win most of the technical achievement honors on Oscar night even if it comes up short in Best Picture. For what it's worth, Nosferatu had gone from +600 to +350 before sliding back to +450, but if you're looking for a dark horse edge, that's the one.

Odds to win Best Film Editing

Film
Conclave	+125	-138
Anora	+135	+150
The Brutalist	+350	+700
Emilia Perez	+1200	+3300
Wicked	+2200	+1400

My prediction: The Brutalist (+700 at bet365)

See above. Though it should be pointed out that "editing" and "making a film shorter" are not the same thing. I wish that didn't need to be said, but almost anytime a longer film gets released, some wiseacres on Twitter all make the same crack at the same time: "Where's the editor?"

However, I have some pause here as the market has completely moved in the wrong direction, favoring Conclave and Anora ahead of The Brutalist. 

Odds to win Best Original Score

Film
The Brutalist	-360	-350
Conclave	+400	+700
The Wild Robot	+700	+400
Emilia Perez	+1200	+1200
Wicked	+1600	+3300

My prediction: The Brutalist (-250 at bet365)

The real winner here should be Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for their phenomenal score to Luca Guadagnino's Challengers. However, not only were they not nominated, but that movie was entirely shut out. At any rate, The Brutalist score is huge in scope and feel and it would be a shocker if it didn't win.

Odds to win Best Sound

Film
Dune Part Two	-250	-300
Wicked	+300	+240
A Complete Unknown	+600	+1100
The Wild Robot	+1600	+2500
Emilia Perez	+1600	+2500

My prediction: A Complete Unknown (+1100 at bet365)

This is all about perceived value. While Dune 2 is favored, it is way less represented in these nominations than the first installment was. Instead, I like looking at a movie all about a particular music scene where the songs factor heavily into the film's success. You can make a similar argument for Wicked, but A Complete Unknown has more momentum behind it as a whole and had moved from +800 to +600 since I originally picked it. While DraftKings still has it at that number, bet365 has moved it to +1100.

Odds to win Best Original Song

Film
El Mal (Emilia Perez)	-310	-275
Mi Camino (Emilia Perez)	+500	+800
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)	+700	+400
Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)	+800	+800
Like a Bird (Sing Sing)	+1200	+2000

My prediction: El Mal — Emilia Perez (-275 at bet365)

Oof. Not an inspiring category. I'd avoid it altogether. It would be funny if this was finally the year Diane Warren won on her 16th nomination in the category.

Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Film
Dune Part Two	-900	-600
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes	+450	+350
Wicked	+2000	+2000
Better Man	+2500	+2500
Alien: Romulus	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Dune Part Two (-800 at bet365)

Chalk. Yes, Dune 2 isn't as big a presence this time around, but it is widely renowned for how it looks and the rest of the category is either uninspiring or feels like too much of a long shot.

Odds to win Best Production Design

Film
Wicked	-475	-400
The Brutalist	+600	+800
Conclave	+700	+900
Nosferatu	+1600	+500
Dune Part 2	+3500	+3300

My prediction: The Brutalist (+800 at bet365)

Well now, this is curious. Nosferatu has seen its odds shorten considerably at bet365, jumping to second behind Wicked. That may prove to be the best dark horse in the category instead of my pick, The Brutalist, and you can still get a good price as long as it doesn't quickly shorten at DraftKings as well.

Odds to win Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Film
The Substance	-1400	-1200
Wicked	+600	+300
Nosferatu	+1400	+900
Emilia Perez	+2800	+2500
A Different Man	+3500	+2800

My prediction: The Substance (-1200 at bet365)

This was a lot tighter in early February, and The Substance has since gone from around -350 to -1200. I'm not betting it at that number but I'm also not looking for an alternative.

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Film
Wicked	-1400	-600
Conclave	+600	+500
Nosferatu	+1400	+1400
A Complete Unknown	+2500	+2500
Gladiator II	+3500	+3300

My prediction: Wicked (-900 at bet365)

Here it is, the one trophy for Wicked.

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Film
Wander to Wonder	-200	-275
Beautiful Men	+150	+187
Yuck!	+1600	+2500
Magic Candles	+2000	+1600
In the Shadow of the Cypress	+2500	+3300

My prediction: Wander to Wonder (-110 at DraftKings)

The shorts categories are so hard to predict and I'll generally avoid betting on them entirely except as part of a larger Oscars pool. In which case, I will usually follow the chalk outline.

Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Film
I Am Ready, Warden	+110	-125
Incident	+250	+240
Death by Numbers	+300	+500
The Only Girl in the Orchestra	+800	+600
Instruments of a Beating Heart	+1000	+2000

My prediction: Death by Numbers (+500 at bet365)

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine was considered a potential frontrunner here, but ultimately didn't get a nomination. I'm leaning toward Death by Numbers, as its subject matter follows a school shooting survivor getting ready to testify against the shooter. 

Odds to win Best Live-Action Short

Film
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent	-150	+150
Anuja	+250	+175
I'm Not a Robot	+450	+450
A Lien	+900	+300
The Last Ranger	+1600	+3000

My prediction: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (+150 at DraftKings)

Again, go with chalk or avoid it entirely. 

2025 Oscars betting at Kalshi

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