We're less than two weeks away from the 2025 Academy Awards nominations being announced, but Oscars odds are in flux, especially after the Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday, January 5.
We'll break down the Academy Awards odds and predictions as they stand today for the major categories before taking a deeper dive after nominations are announced on January 17.
The actual ceremony — hosted by Conan O'Brien — is slated for Sunday, March 2 at 7 p.m. ET.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -165 | -163 |
| Emilia Perez | +275 | +300 |
| Conclave | +350 | +400 |
| Anora | +400 | +300 |
| Wicked | +700 | +700 |
| Sing Sing | +1000 | +1000 |
| Dune: Part Two | +1200 | +1200 |
| A Complete Unknown | +1400 | +1600 |
| Nickel Boys | +1600 | +1600 |
| The Room Next Door | +2500 | +2500 |
| A Real Pain | +2800 | +3300 |
| Blitz | +3500 | +3300 |
| Saturday Night | +3500 | +3300 |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | +5000 | +5000 |
| The Piano Lesson | +5000 | +5000 |
| Queer | +5000 | +5000 |
| Gladiator 2 | +5000 | +5000 |
| The Substance | +6500 | +4000 |
| A Different Man | +6500 | +8000 |
| Small Things Like These | +8000 | +8000 |
| All We Imagine as Light | +8000 | +8000 |
| September 5 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Oh, Canada | +8000 | +8000 |
| Juror No. 2 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Maria | +8000 | +8000 |
| Hard Truths | +8000 | +15000 |
| Nosferatu | +10000 | +10000 |
| The Outrun | +10000 | +10000 |
| Kinds of Kindness | +10000 | +10000 |
| Bird | +10000 | +10000 |
| The Bikeriders | +10000 | +15000 |
| Will and Harper | +10000 | +8000 |
| Challengers | +15000 | +15000 |
Odds as of 12-4.
Golden Globes fallout for a wide-open field
My prediction: The Brutalist (-163 at bet365)
Before the Golden Globes, Sean Baker's Anora appeared to have grabbed front-runner status in several categories, including Best Picture. However, the antic comedy/drama came up empty on Sunday night and its odds to win Best Picture dropped from +175 to +400; still in the race, but way less than a sure thing. It will 100% be nominated, but a win is up in the air.
The biggest winner in the Best Picture field is Brady Corbet's The Brutalist, which nabbed several key awards on the night. The 3.5-hour drama has been widely hailed by critics since it debuted on the festival circuit in 2024.
For now, The Brutalist's chief competition in Best Picture appears to be Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez, the Netflix musical starring Zoe Saldana, Karla Sofia Gascon, and Selena Gomez. It's been fairly polarizing in critics' circles, and the Oscars have still never awarded a Netflix film Best Picture, so it's unclear how well it will perform on March 2.
Not to lean too much into Golden Globes results, but The Brutalist is the kind of big swing that is in conversation with movies of Hollywood's past using technology (VistaVision) that hadn't been put into practice since the 1960s (in American filmmaking anyway) while also having an indie spirit to it (it cost $10 million and took Corbet & Co. seven years to get it off the ground). It's also great.
Odds to win Best Director
| Film | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | -310 | -300 |
| Sean Baker (Anora) | +275 | +275 |
| Ridley Scott (Gladiator 2) | +600 | +600 |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +700 | +700 |
| Edward Berger (Conclave) | +800 | +800 |
| Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) | +1000 | +1000 |
| Steve McQueen (Blitz) | +1200 | +1200 |
| Jon M. Chu (Wicked) | +1200 | +1200 |
| RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) | +2500 | +2500 |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2800 | +3300 |
| Pedro Almodovar (The Room Next Door) | +3500 | +3300 |
| Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) | +3500 | +3300 |
| Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) | +3500 | +3300 |
| Walter Salles (I'm Still Here) | +4000 | +4000 |
| Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie a Deux) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Marielle Heller (Nightbitch) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Luca Guadagnino (Queer) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Alex Garland (Civil War) | +5000 | +5000 |
My prediction: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (-300 at bet365)
Brady Corbet's third feature film as director announced itself as a monumental achievement even before it hit cinemas (and even now, it's only in a very limited release). The actor-turned-filmmaker won the Best Director award at the Golden Globes and he's up for the same honor at the Independent Spirit Awards.
Sean Baker was largely seen as the best bet in the autumn, but after Anora came up empty, it's looking less a certainty. These are very different movies, and the sheer size and ambition of Corbet's film (epic in scale if not in scope, as it's a more intimate character study than perhaps expected) could push it over the top.
I would be shocked if Ridley Scott gets a nomination for Gladiator II, which has been fairly tepidly received, and I am unsure why his odds are so short compared to some other names.
One name to keep an eye on in this category, if only for a potential nomination and not necessarily a win, is RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys. This movie has not been widely seen, but it's touted as a groundbreaking piece of cinema, which could help its chances with the director's branch.
Odds to win Best Actor
| Film | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -165 | -200 |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +125 | +175 |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +350 | +350 |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +600 | +600 |
| Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) | +800 | +1400 |
| Daniel Craig (Queer) | +1200 | +1200 |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +2000 | +2500 |
| Gabrielle LaBelle (Saturday Night) | +2500 | OTB |
| Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) | +2500 | +2500 |
| Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness) | +3500 | +3300 |
| Hugh Grant (Heretic) | +3500 | +3300 |
| John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) | +4000 | +4000 |
| Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux) | +4000 | +3300 |
| Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) | +4000 | +5000 |
My prediction: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (+600 at DraftKings)
Six actors are vying for the five spots, and they are the top six on the odds board. Before the Golden Globes, I would have guessed Daniel Craig was a lock for a nomination, but now I'm not so sure. Sebastian Stan winning Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy for his excellent work in A Different Man shakes things up. I don't think Stan will win the Oscar, but I expect him to get that fifth nomination with Craig missing out.
Adrien Brody is the chalk pick and Timothee Chalamet makes a lot of sense because of the Academy's history of rewarding musician biopics. Ralph Fiennes is the real legacy candidate, but I'm leaning toward Colman Domingo for his humanist and empathetic performance in Sing Sing.
Domingo is beloved and has been nominated before, but has never won. The odds reflect the probability, and I can't deny Brody is the likely winner with Chalamet his closest competition. But, don't be shocked if Domingo is celebrated for a role that is so full of hope and humanity.
Odds to win Best Actress
| Film | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | -135 | -138 |
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | +125 | +110 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +500 | +600 |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +600 | +600 |
| Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) | +800 | +800 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +800 | +800 |
| Angelina Jolie (Maria) | +800 | +800 |
| Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) | +1400 | +1400 |
| Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) | +1600 | +1600 |
| Amy Adams (Nightbitch) | +1600 | +1600 |
| Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) | +3500 | +3300 |
| June Squibb (Thelma) | +4000 | +4000 |
| Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) | +4000 | +4000 |
| Florence Pugh (We Live in Time) | +5000 | +5000 |
| Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl) | +5000 | +5000 |
My prediction: Mikey Madison, Anora (-135 at DraftKings)
Demi Moore's win at the Golden Globes was at least somewhat surprising. Not because of her performance in The Substance, which is exemplary, but because Mikey Madison has been seen as an unstoppable force heading into awards season. This is one of those areas where I am not buying into the Globes as a predictor, and neither are bookies, as Madison is still the betting favorite (though Moore's odds have shortened considerably).
The Academy's history with horror movies has me dubious that Moore will even get nominated, and this is a far more packed category in terms of potential nominees than for Best Actor. Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, for example, and should be in the running here.
It also wouldn't be shocking if Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, or Saoirse Ronan picked up noms while Moore didn't. And Marianne Jean-Baptiste may not be a household name in North America, but she's a well-respected actress in the UK and is being touted for her lead role in Mike Leigh's latest, Hard Truths.
But, I think it's Madison's to lose. Anora's lack of success at the Golden Globes is bewildering, but I'm not deterred. This was a star-making performance and even if the film's overall chances are softened, she will be rewarded for her work.
Academy Awards Odds FAQ
Brady Corbet's The Brutalist is the betting favorite to win Best Picture.
Brady Corbet is the betting favorite to win Best Director.
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) & Mikey Madison (Anora) are favored in the lead acting categories.
The 2025 Oscars are currently scheduled for March 3, 2025 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.
Oppenheimer won Best Picture in 2024 as a heavy frontrunner. Altogether, Oppenheimer won seven Oscars out of its 13 nominations.
Christopher Nolan won his first Best Director Academy Award for helming Oppenheimer, which was the big winner on Oscar night.
Cillian Murphy won Best Actor for Oppenheimer while Emma Stone won Best Actress for Poor Things.
