The 2025 Academy Awards are live tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
The 97th edition of the Oscars is the last show of awards season and it's much less predictable than a year ago when the Oppenheimer machine bulldozed the competition. We're breaking down the Best Picture race as part of our 2025 Oscars odds collection, which also includes Best Actor predictions and Best Actress predictions.
Anora is the betting favorite, but does that mean it has an unencumbered path to victory? Be sure to download our 2025 Oscars ballot before the broadcast begins.
Odds to win Best Picture
| Film |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | -200 | -225 |
| Conclave | +225 | +250 |
| The Brutalist | +600 | +650 |
| A Complete Unknown | +3500 | +5000 |
| Wicked | +5000 | +6600 |
| Emilia Perez | +6500 | +6600 |
| I'm Still Here | +10000 | +10000 |
| The Substance | +8000 | +10000 |
| Nickel Boys | +10000 | +10000 |
| Dune: Part Two | +10000 | +10000 |
My prediction: Conclave (+250 at bet365)
This pick looked a lot more tantalizing when Conclave was still trading around +700 ahead of its big ensemble victory at the Screen Actors Guild awards. Nevertheless, my reasoning even before its win holds true. Ranked balloting will help as it seems doubtful that Conclave will rate in the bottom half of many voters' selections, whereas Anora, The Brutalist, and especially Emilia Perez will. So even if Conclave's overall reception wasn't as rapturous as those other films, it may well thread the needle.
Dark horse pick: The Brutalist (+650 at bet365)
Applying the above reasoning a second time, you could make the argument that either A Complete Unknown or Wicked could swoop in, but neither has performed as well at various guilds as Conclave has. Therefore, The Brutalist — at one point the betting favorite — becomes my dark-horse selection. No, it also hasn't fared particularly well at the guilds, but it did win at the Golden Globes, so there remains an outside chance.
